Team of Round One

[Tony Manx]

Absolutely agree!!

 

[ThRugbyNet]

We've got a slightly different outcome at The Rugby Net.
Looking at the top players by position, you come up with the following:

1. Ross
2. Guirado
3. Marler
4. Kruis
5. O'Connell
6. Haskell
7. Robshaw
8. Vunipola
9. Murray
10. Ford
11. Huget
12. Henshaw
13. Joseph
14. Watson
15. Kearney

I think most of the differences stem from the lift in ratings that players get from being on the winning side. It can be a little tough when looked at in the context of a single game, but over time we think it's an important indicator in a players worth. Are you making the difference for your team?

The difference between Atwood and Kruis was slight. Two missed tackles by Atwood.

Also, let's not sell the Irish short for their victory in Rome. The Italians tackled their arses off but still gave up 17 unanswered points in the second half.

 

[Peat]

Interesting that you'd point at the missed tackles at Attwood. There was an article by Wayne Smith a couple of years which is pretty much engraved on my mind where he talks about the fallibility of stats and his prime example is indeed the missed tackle. We look at the stats, see a missed tackle and assume a mistake was made; yet he said that a missed tackle that makes it easier for a team mate to complete the tackle before the gain line is a more positive intervention than a successful tackle that is finished behind the gain line. Over time I've come to agree with him and all the other proponents of it and wouldn't be weighing missed tackles that heavily.

Also have to say, I think it rather unfair that you'd weight towards the winning team; generally, the guys on the dominant team get more chance to shine anyway, which already weights things towards the winning team. To weight it further is unnecessary and unfair on players whose teams simply aren't going to win that game. Do you weight based on form/rankings as well?

 

[goodNumber10]

I've been taking about positive outcomes of missed tackles for a good year or so now.

Completely agree.

 

[LiRFCMatt]

Guscotts:
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/rugby-union/31256963

I think this is actualy his Home Nation's team, so that would explain why May is in ahead of the likes of Thomas. Just goes to show how poor the French and Italians were that there is only one point of debate here.

 

[SelimNiai]

I think this is actualy his Home Nation's team, so that would explain why May is in ahead of the likes of Thomas. Just goes to show how poor the French and Italians were that there is only one point of debate here.

Also says a lot that Ford is given the 10 slot. He wasn't that great. Got better as the game went on admittedly and did nail that key kick, the only reason he got that award in my mind but no 10 on any of the 6 teams shone over the games. Russell the only one that could be considered on an "all round effort" standpoint.

 

[LiRFCMatt]

Also says a lot that Ford is given the 10 slot. He wasn't that great. Got better as the game went on admittedly and did nail that key kick, the only reason he got that award in my mind but no 10 on any of the 6 teams shone over the games. Russell the only one that could be considered on an "all round effort" standpoint.

He was a disappointing man of the match as well, Robshaw was far more deserving.

 

[SelimNiai]

He was a disappointing man of the match as well, Robshaw was far more deserving.

It was a "making headlines" type of award. Having a young, promising 10 come into the Millenium on a huge night and get MOTM makes great copy. I liken it to Sky giving Sexton MOTM seemingly every time Leinster win a european game.

Robshaw, Haskell, Atwood, Faletau (cmon I had to make it at least somewhat Welsh) had better games.

 

[ThRugbyNet]

Interesting that you'd point at the missed tackles at Attwood. There was an article by Wayne Smith a couple of years which is pretty much engraved on my mind where he talks about the fallibility of stats and his prime example is indeed the missed tackle. We look at the stats, see a missed tackle and assume a mistake was made; yet he said that a missed tackle that makes it easier for a team mate to complete the tackle before the gain line is a more positive intervention than a successful tackle that is finished behind the gain line. Over time I've come to agree with him and all the other proponents of it and wouldn't be weighing missed tackles that heavily.

True, stats are fallible, and not all missed tackles are created equal. Presumably though some missed tackles are not all beyond-the-gain-line-slow-downs and are just good old misses. You've always got to watch the game. What we've found is stats can throw up some anomalies if you just look at a single game, but over time they are a reliable gauge of talent. If someone consistently has a number of missed tackles, even Wayne Smith might have something to say about it.

So, the team above is just one of several plausible lineups that you could put forward based on just the first round of games, since the data sample is so small. As the weeks progress we think we'll be able to zero in on the real standouts.

Also have to say, I think it rather unfair that you'd weight towards the winning team; generally, the guys on the dominant team get more chance to shine anyway, which already weights things towards the winning team. To weight it further is unnecessary and unfair on players whose teams simply aren't going to win that game. Do you weight based on form/rankings as well?

Yes, we do adjust ratings based on the ranking of the protagonists. That's usually league standing, or in test rugby we use the World Rugby rankings. So, we rank a performance in a game of 1 vs 2 higher than an identical performance in a game of 11 vs 12. It's probably one of the most hotly debated aspects of our ratings, but if you consider the alternative, then two tries for Fiji against Japan would be ranked the same as two tries for South Africa against the All Blacks.

So in the case of this round of the 6 Nations, players in the Wales/England got the biggest lift, although as you can see from our list, it's not a crazy bump, and players from other matches can make this list. The weight towards the victors is also something that can set people off. If it helps, margin of victory is a factor, so if your team goes down 14-15, then any bump to the winners in nominal.

Anyway, we do agree that stats will sometimes need to be taken with a pinch of salt, but if you want to win an argument down the pub, it's always good to back it up with some objective metrics. That is, so long as they support your viewpoint

Thanks for taking a look, and thanks for your thoughts.

 

[Maverick1987]

It was a "making headlines" type of award. Having a young, promising 10 come into the Millenium on a huge night and get MOTM makes great copy. I liken it to Sky giving Sexton MOTM seemingly every time Leinster win a european game.

Robshaw, Haskell, Atwood, Faletau (cmon I had to make it at least somewhat Welsh) had better games.

Completely agreed . I think you can add Warburton to that list as well . I thought he had a cracking game on Friday tbh

 

[Will]

I'm honestly surprised that (unless I've missed it) no one has mentioned Blair Cowan in their team.

 

[TheSaffycen]

Probably because most people would say Robshaw was the best 7. He made 26 tackles without missing one.

 

[martinspoonboy1]

I'm honestly surprised that (unless I've missed it) no one has mentioned Blair Cowan in their team.

He had a superb game. Will have to repeat that if Scotland are going to have a chance against Wales.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Probably because most people would say Robshaw was the best 7. He made 26 tackles without missing one.

This. Plus, Cowan's penalty count was very high wasn't it?

 

[Jbobo]

Not that mate just shocked at his stats. Dont remember him touching the ball nevermind making yards.

Not sure who he tackled (Brown?) but he went running with the player for a good 10 yards. Reminded me of when he picked up Folau

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

This. Plus, Cowan's penalty count was very high wasn't it?

I'm sure when i was reading the stats on the six nations website, he only conceded 2 penalties when Scotland were on the attack but 2 is still a low number off penalties to concede.

 

[RedruthRFC]

I'm sure when i was reading the stats on the six nations website, he only conceded 2 penalties when Scotland were on the attack but 2 is still a low number off penalties to concede.

Two in attack, one in defence - the joint highest of the weekend, the highest among back rowers.

 

[Goodey]

Considering penalty count is the reason Scotland lost...

 

[TheSaffycen]

Yeah but to counter that he got 2 turnovers on his own line so I think he came out positive on his points difference.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

I'm sure when i was reading the stats on the six nations website, he only conceded 2 penalties when Scotland were on the attack but 2 is still a low number off penalties to concede.

2 Penalties can easily happen and frequently does but its still too many penalties for one player to give away.
Having said this, one of them from memory was when he dived on a ball and France rucked over and he was pinged for holding on? Can't remember actually but it was early in the match. This sort of penalty I don't really blame the guy holding on, unless its his own poor decision making to get isolated and i don't think this was.