Team most likely to cause an upset?

[calculon]

I don't know how to make a poll yet so I'm just throwing it out as an open question, if you're interested.
What team do you think will be a surprise: Italy, Argentina, Samoa, Tonga, Fiji ...<insert other underrated, poorly seeded team>
Or, are there no such teams for this world cup?
Define surprise? Getting into the QF, or merely beating one of the top 5 teams (on current IRB standings)

 

[calculon]

I'll start the ball rolling by saying Italy. I hope not but I genuinely believe Ireland will have to watch themselves in this game. Italy are useful.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Allready a thread like this. If I remember correctly the general consensus was Samoa.

 

[calculon]

oops, sorry.

 

[Logorrhea]

Right then, whats your top 15 potential upsets.

 

[Riekert]

I think France could, if they want to on the day they could beat any team!

 

[Ostrayian]

Im pretty optimistic for the Pacific teams to surprise a few heavyweights. Almost call NZ homegames for them. Would like to see the Argies do well also.

 

[Riekert]

Im pretty optimistic for the Pacific teams to surprise a few heavyweights. Almost call NZ homegames for them. Would like to see the Argies do well also.

Pacific teams i would say Samoa and Fidji, in 2007 they gave the boks a run for theyre money!

 

[McTallshort]

This is going to really hurt saying this but.........I think Wales will have the best the WC they have ever had and could even see them finishing top of their group ahead of the Boks.

That hurt!

 

[AfakasiAssasin]

As is every world cup, the tier 1 nations need to beware the Islands. Samoa coming off their big win against the Wallabies and having a very strong looking squad (perhaps their strongest in the professional era) will provide stiff competition for Wales and/or South Africa. Fiji being as unpredictable as they are even if their squad looks weaker than what it was in 2007 will try to repeat their RWC triumph over Wales as well as another sterling performance vs South Africa. Tonga have a monster forward pack and finally have a decent back line to compliment it can cause problems possibly for France.
Other than the Island teams, Italy I feel it could be their time to finally get over the hump and get out of the pool stages possibly at Ireland's expense. Japan has had a lot of time to gel together and have been playing well lately so I could see them giving a few of the bigger teams a run for their money. Lastly I think Georgia could give Scotland and/or Argentina a good fight.

 

[Thingimubob]

This is going to really hurt saying this but.........I think Wales will have the best the WC they have ever had and could even see them finishing top of their group ahead of the Boks.

That hurt!

Well to have our best world cup ever we'd have to at least get to the final, since 3rd place back in '87 was our previous best. This is probably one of our best teams to ever go into a World Cup, fitness is fantastic and we're going to NZ on the back of 3 good performances. That's something we've never really done, considering that we went into 03 and 07 after awful 6 Nations and then being hammered by the likes of Ireland, England and France in the warm ups.
Pacific Island teams will always be gunning for an upset, Samoa will need to pull out the same type of performance that they did vs Australia if they have any chance of beating Wales or South Africa though! Haven't seen much of Fiji recently, but having them in our final pool games will certainly bring back a few unpleasant memories from Nantes in 2007... just hope we can turn them into a determination to win this time!

 

[TrueSlawter]

The pacific Islanders always put up good games just hope gatland doesnt underestimate em tbf.. Italy has potential to get outta the groups too tbh.

 

[Logorrhea]

Allready a thread like this. If I remember correctly the general consensus was Samoa.

Do you ever feel that people dont pay attention to you?

 

[calculon]

The pacific Islanders always put up good games just hope gatland doesnt underestimate em tbf.. Italy has potential to get outta the groups too tbh.

Yep, if they are underestimated, hit good form, get bad weather, and clash with bad Irish form, then -> doom. I know I'm not the only Irish person that's worried about that game and it is a game they will be realistically targeting, and have a right to target. On paper, Ireland can only lose that match I still feel, but under no circumstances do I expect Ireland to win by a large margin. Hope I'm wrong, but Italy won't lie down for Oz either. However, Australia have the team to crush them.

 

[SelimNiai]

Do you ever feel that people dont pay attention to you?

Who said that?

 

[McTallshort]

Well to have our best world cup ever we'd have to at least get to the final, since 3rd place back in '87 was our previous best. This is probably one of our best teams to ever go into a World Cup, fitness is fantastic and we're going to NZ on the back of 3 good performances. That's something we've never really done, considering that we went into 03 and 07 after awful 6 Nations and then being hammered by the likes of Ireland, England and France in the warm ups.
Pacific Island teams will always be gunning for an upset, Samoa will need to pull out the same type of performance that they did vs Australia if they have any chance of beating Wales or South Africa though! Haven't seen much of Fiji recently, but having them in our final pool games will certainly bring back a few unpleasant memories from Nantes in 2007... just hope we can turn them into a determination to win this time!

I dont tend to count what happened before SA joined in 95.....

 

[SelimNiai]

I dont tend to count what happened before SA joined in 95.....

Why the heck not?

 

[ZeFrenchy]

The problem with this thread is that if it is "likely", then it's not really an "upset".
I think few people would call any set of results between Samoa, Fiji and Wales an upset. The same goes with Argentina and Scotland. Italy beating Ireland is in the limit of being an upset, as would be Argentina or Scotland beating England.
So, the anwser to the question depends on how much you weigh the "likelihood" part and how much the "upsetting" part. My answer would then be Italy.

 

[Me 1]

I reckon Italy will beat Ireland, and Georgia could really surprise some teams with their pack (upset more than one, it's a long shot but it spices things up a bit). Argentina probably will beat Scotland if Contepomi sorts his goal kicking out.

 

[calculon]

The problem with this thread is that if it is "likely", then it's not really an "upset".
I think few people would call any set of results between Samoa, Fiji and Wales an upset. The same goes with Argentina and Scotland. Italy beating Ireland is in the limit of being an upset, as would be Argentina or Scotland beating England.
So, the anwser to the question depends on how much you weigh the "likelihood" part and how much the "upsetting" part. My answer would then be Italy.

Fair point. But they're still just different shades of gray if you get my meaning. After Italy, Scotland would be my next choice of surprise team. Samoa and/or Fiji beating Wales would be a bit of an upset as they're in good form right now.