Super Rugby 2018 Calendar

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Not sure it's a tough calendar or maybe not the right competition for us. I don't know. Small part of me watches cheetah's games these days and thinks "maybe that should be us". Not sure.

 

[Zanella]

Not sure it's a tough calendar or maybe not the right competition for us. I don't know. Small part of me watches cheetah's games these days and thinks "maybe that should be us". Not sure.

That´s probably easier to tell after the performances jaguares had the previous years, but i think everyone agreed they should be in the SR after the 2015 rwc. I honestly thought they were going to find it easier as most of their players were part of that wc team. Anyway I agree that there are not many teams in this competition that jaguares could beat, maybe that should be us but it is always nice to see an argentinian team competing with the best teams.

 

[The Jones Boy]

I hadn't been following it, but I see they beat the Chiefs and won the 10s. Def not what I expected.

I had the Blues game down as a potential Sunwolves victory again... Maybe I have to reconsider that.

They performed above expectation but it's all pre-season mumbo jumbo until they produce in the contest for real.
The Sunwolves result really hurt Tana...
The Highlanders away is the first task and that's a major opportunity too put a marker down but much easier said than done.
The Blues have to actually beat another Kiwi franchise and climb off the bottom of the Kiwi conference by the end of the competition to show genuine improvement.
The Auckland Blues catchment area is stellar.
It needs to start producing the fruit of the junior coaches labours and not let much of that talent slip away to other franchises or overseas.
Results are the key to changing that problem.
I feel that Tana is the first real chance we have of turning that corner since as far back as Nucifora.
Only results will tell us how that development is progressing into the players.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Bienvenido

That´s probably easier to tell after the performances jaguares had the previous years, but i think everyone agreed they should be in the SR after the 2015 rwc.

I agree with this, but here, precisely, is where the problem lies. Couple of points so i'll try to structure the answer the best i can.

First, and most importantly, 2015 was an outlier in terms of performance for the pumas. We had our best TRC (if i recall correctly, it was the only time we didn't finish last) and we punched above our weight in the world cup: we gave the All Blacks a decent run for their money and, partly due to 5 key injuries (gotta mention it) we tore Ireland a new one. We all bought into the hype after that.

Second, media and fans, home and abroad. Instead of acknowledging it was, precisely an outlier, we believed we had the tools not only to compete against the best, but to beat them. That prooved to be dead wrong. Again, this wasn't just Argentine media/fans, i recall international media saying things of the like "we might have created a monster" when discussing jaguares pre season in 2016.

Third, we seem to have a lot of trouble learning from our mistakes. You can claim "i was surprised"/ "we are not familiar with competition/opponents" only once, and Jaguares management did so in 2016. Ironically, i wholeheartedly believe we played better in 2016 than in 2017. I recall Jaguares throwing everything but the sink at the Chiefs in 2016 and losing by an inch, even unfairly.
The untrained eye will tell you: "wait a min, look at the stats, we did better in 2017." ********! The only reason we appear to have done better is because we faced weaker opposition (NZ teams in 2016, Aus conference in 2017).

In 2016, at least i knew what the team was trying to do: open, offensive and borderline suicidal rugby. I thought it was the wrong decision given our skill set, but at least i understood the rationale behind it: this is the rugby we want to play, it takes time to develop it, we will make mistakes, lose games. I understand, and again, even thou i disagreed with it, i even found it entertaining to watch.
Then 2017 came along and, to be completely fair, i have no idea, whatsoever, what they are trying to do. I don't think we can blame players for this. I see no evidence for that. The change in style was evident and not for good.

Historically the pumas' (didn't have Jaguares pre 2016 so have to use this as a proxy) strengths were defense, scrum and pressure. 2015 came along and suddenly we showed moments of brilliance in offense.
So, at least my mind but i'm pretty sure i am not alone here, the idea of combining strong defense, good set pieces and fast open play when we get the ball was an easy sell, i bought the cool aid, the store, the lot.

So not only did we not manage to improve our attack, but our scrum is not even the shadow of what it once was, and some of our defenses are embarrassing to watch. Sometimes it's as if they were not even trying.

Silver lining is that i believe we have enough talent to give most a run for their points and beat nearly all in a good day. We need to channel that talent properly and we've been doing that so badly that i don't see anywhere else to go but up. A natural optimist, that's me.

 

[Zanella]

Bienvenido

I agree with this, but here, precisely, is where the problem lies. Couple of points so i'll try to structure the answer the best i can.

First, and most importantly, 2015 was an outlier in terms of performance for the pumas. We had our best TRC (if i recall correctly, it was the only time we didn't finish last) and we punched above our weight in the world cup: we gave the All Blacks a decent run for their money and, partly due to 5 key injuries (gotta mention it) we tore Ireland a new one. We all bought into the hype after that.

Second, media and fans, home and abroad. Instead of acknowledging it was, precisely an outlier, we believed we had the tools not only to compete against the best, but to beat them. That prooved to be dead wrong. Again, this wasn't just Argentine media/fans, i recall international media saying things of the like "we might have created a monster" when discussing jaguares pre season in 2016.

Third, we seem to have a lot of trouble learning from our mistakes. You can claim "i was surprised"/ "we are not familiar with competition/opponents" only once, and Jaguares management did so in 2016. Ironically, i wholeheartedly believe we played better in 2016 than in 2017. I recall Jaguares throwing everything but the sink at the Chiefs in 2016 and losing by an inch, even unfairly.
The untrained eye will tell you: "wait a min, look at the stats, we did better in 2017." ********! The only reason we appear to have done better is because we faced weaker opposition (NZ teams in 2016, Aus conference in 2017).

In 2016, at least i knew what the team was trying to do: open, offensive and borderline suicidal rugby. I thought it was the wrong decision given our skill set, but at least i understood the rationale behind it: this is the rugby we want to play, it takes time to develop it, we will make mistakes, lose games. I understand, and again, even thou i disagreed with it, i even found it entertaining to watch.
Then 2017 came along and, to be completely fair, i have no idea, whatsoever, what they are trying to do. I don't think we can blame players for this. I see no evidence for that. The change in style was evident and not for good.

Historically the pumas' (didn't have Jaguares pre 2016 so have to use this as a proxy) strengths were defense, scrum and pressure. 2015 came along and suddenly we showed moments of brilliance in offense.
So, at least my mind but i'm pretty sure i am not alone here, the idea of combining strong defense, good set pieces and fast open play when we get the ball was an easy sell, i bought the cool aid, the store, the lot.

So not only did we not manage to improve our attack, but our scrum is not even the shadow of what it once was, and some of our defenses are embarrassing to watch. Sometimes it's as if they were not even trying.

Silver lining is that i believe we have enough talent to give most a run for their points and beat nearly all in a good day. We need to channel that talent properly and we've been doing that so badly that i don't see anywhere else to go but up. A natural optimist, that's me.

I totally agree with your reply, and i would add that hiring for Jaguares the exact same guys that were playing in the pumas that year was something kind of hurried. That rwc made the uar believe that we were at the same level with the powerhouses. I am convinced that the fact of not allowing the boys playing in the northern hemisphere to play in the pumas has harmed their level.
I also believe that everyone sees jaguares super rugby performances as failures because they were expecting the players to perform as they did in that wc, maybe if they would have been considered as underdogs from the beggining (as the sunwolves) we wouldn´t be talking about failures but about a new team that has lots of things to improve, as they actually are.
I also think that 2016 was way better than 2017, but i thought i was the only one who did, 2017 looked as if we were trying to offload and play the ball just as the nz teams without knowing how to do it. We had too much handling errors.
As i said at the top, i couldn't agree more with your post.

 

[FNS]

We came into SR with half a team from RC15 and no idea how to play. with Ledesma probably we are going to have some idea of how to play but you cant growth talent out of thin air. We still lack some key players in several positions.

We need Aus group to be better and take a toll on Sharks, Bulls and Stormers. So the gap in points is no bigger than 6/7 points.(off course all should lose to NZ teams also xD)

 

[Brigantine]

The loss of the Cheetahs/Kings/Sunwolves from the South African conference will make it harder for the Sharks and Stormers to pile up points on the table.

The move from 6 to 8 conference games also gives the Blues and Highlanders a more tortuous fixture list.

And then for Australia, they lost their 2nd ranked team and gained the Sunwolves. Those 8 conference games will suit them just fine thanks.

I think the 5th NZ team can be written off, (not necessarily the Blues), but watch out for that 2nd team in the Aus conf - Probably the Sunwolves

That 8th play-off spot is the exact middle of the table, so the target is roughly 8/16 wins to get there. So in the Australian conference that's more like 6/8 conf wins and 2/8 cross-conf wins, while in the NZ conference it's more like 2/8 conf wins and 6/8 cross-conf wins.

This draw is even better for the Sunwolves than I realized.

The conventional wisdom about the South African teams seems to be that the Lions and Sharks are the strong ones this season. So if your target is 2 cross-conference wins, then the teams you want home games against are the Stormers and Bulls, and then the Jaguares and Blues. (and write off the away games)

The Sunwolves' home cross-conference games - all in Tokyo, where home advantage has made a big difference for them - are the Chiefs, Blues, Stormers and Bulls.

3 out of 4 ain't bad!

 

[TRF_heineken]

This draw is even better for the Sunwolves than I realized.

The conventional wisdom about the South African teams seems to be that the Lions and Sharks are the strong ones this season. So if your target is 2 cross-conference wins, then the teams you want home games against are the Stormers and Bulls, and then the Jaguares and Blues. (and write off the away games)

The Sunwolves' home cross-conference games - all in Tokyo, where home advantage has made a big difference for them - are the Chiefs, Blues, Stormers and Bulls.

3 out of 4 ain't bad!

True, But the big question will be how will the Jaguares and Sunwolves perform this year. It's the first time they are part of the 15-team format, and South Africa dropped 2 teams and Australia 1 team with the teams remaining, only getting stronger with regard to forming stronger squads.

 

[Brigantine]

Yeah, if the Wolves get poor results despite the stars all aligning in their favour, it will be a really damning indictment.

The Jaguares will be made to look terrible regardless, but they will at least have excuses. (unless they seriously over-perform)

If the winnable games are vs Jags/Reds/Rebels/Wolves and at home vs Stormers/Bulls/Waratahs/Brumbies/Blues... then the Sunwolves have 9 winnable games and the Jaguares only 5. The Jags will have to show real consistency to be even vaguely mid-table. The Wolves only need to be firing half the time.

 

[unrated]

Im positive that the Jags and Sunwolves will massively improve this year. The tournament is going to be tight until the last round. Looking forward to one of the most entertaining Super rugby tournament in years.