With only 3 rounds left, of which the first is starting tomorrow, we have 5 teams who are competing for 3 wildcard spots in this year's Super15 competition.
Here I would like to focus on these teams, see which teams they are still facing and how many wins they might need.
The Crusaders have been struggling lately with losses in Bloemfontein and Brisbane but they are still ahead of the rest of the contenders with 2 points to the closest contender the Sharks. This week they have the bye, which gives them a guaranteed 4 points, bringing them to 53. The last 2 matches are played against the Conference leaders, the Blues, trying to snatch that spot in the top3 by passing them on the log. If the Blues lose this weekend against the Chiefs, everything is possible, them having 54 points. The final match might be the hardest. Despite it being a home-match, they play in Wellington against the Hurricanes. This due to the round 2 match between the two sides being cancelled because of the earthquake in Christchurch.
The Sharks have been struggling lately with a narrow win over the Waratahs and a loss to the Bulls. The 3 remaining matches are all away from their homeground in Durban. In Bloemfontein, Johannesburg and Pretoria, they visit the Cheetahs, Lions and Bulls in that order. They are on 47 points and with the Bulls still as an opponent, they have to win to make sure they can continue in the play offs after round 18. Having beaten the Waratahs last weekend was a massive step towards that goal
After losing to the Sharks, the Waratahs will have to pray for the others to spill points. The match-up against the Bulls this weekend is one for the 6th place. If the Waratahs win, they are at least 4 points loose of the Pretoria-based franchise but if the Waratahs lose, they will likely miss out on the play offs and there is a chance we might have 3 South African sides in the play offs. The 2 final matches of the Waratahs are at home in Sydney, but that does not mean they will get easy wins. The first of the 2 matches will be against the Highlanders! And there we see how crucial the final 4 weeks will be for the Waratahs. Having played the Sharks and still playing the Bulls and Highlanders, they play 3 of the 4 other contenders for these precious play off spots!
The Bulls need a win next weekend. If they lose, they will lose out on a perfect chance to keep their fate in their own hands. After hosting the Waratahs this weekend, they have to travel to Cape Town and try to sneak a win at Newlands. The first match between the 2 sides was won by the Stormers at Loftus though. With only 1 points behind the Waratahs and only 1 point ahead of the Highlanders they cannot slip up these weeks or the defending champions will be out of the competition before it gets interesting.
Will the Highlanders make the play offs? The fact that they are still contending for them is a great achievement on its own. The good season is being overshadowed by the rumour that the Dunedin-based side is changing colors from blue-yellow-red to black-green. Besides it being an ugly combination of colors, it is a slap in the face of the provinces Southland, Otago and North-Otago that form the franchise. They play the Western Force this weekend which is a must-win occasion. Next they play away twice. They visit the Waratahs, one of the other contenders and the Blues, who are the COnference leaders in New Zealand. If the Highlanders want to make the play offs, they need 3 wins, preferably with bonus points. With 44 points at the moment, they can get to 56 to 59 with 3 wins.
For my money the Crusaders have done enough and with the bye's 4 points they only need 1 win which I am sure they'll get.
Highlanders are the furthest behind with some tough games against the Blues and 'Tahs (both which I think they'll lose) so I'll put them behind in the race.
That leaves 3 teams for 2 spots. These teams are just too close for comfort. Of them I'd say the bulls have the toughest games; Tahs, Stormers and Sharks all big games. Lose 2 and their out for sure. Beat either Tahs or Sharks and its essentially an 8 point swing. Sharks I'd say are good for 2 wins and a 50/50 against the Bulls. Tahs have 2 tight games against the Bulls and Highlanders. Of the 3 I'd say the Sharks are in the best position and while I think the Tahs have a good position I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the team winning this weekends' fixture between the Tahs and Bulls. Tahs losing puts the Highlanders back into the picture if they can beat them and the Bulls lose to both Sharks and Stormers though I think they'll take 1 of those games.
I must say, this is possibly the only part of this new Super 15 format that makes things rather interesting near the business end of things.
Having a good 8 teams going for play off spots is going to produce some awesome matches, and not to mention that the Stormers have a pretty tough run in with two form teams right after each other in the Bulls and Cheetahs. Going to be very tough indeed.
My money would be on the Bulls probably winning the matches against the Sharks and Waratahs, and giving it a massive go against the Stormers (very worried about that one), so I think they'll definitely be there.
The Sharks and the Waratahs both have 2 tough games games I think, the Sharks against the Cheetahs and Bulls and the Tahs against the Bulls and highlanders, I do think the Sharks have the harder derbie games though, so I think I'm unfortunately going to go with the Tahs beating out the Sharks (although I would love to see 3 SA teams in the top 6).
I'd say it's probably going to look something like this.
1. Reds
2. Blues / Stormers
3. Stormers / Blues
4. Crusaders
5. Bulls
6. Waratahs
So hoping the Sharks get in there though, and with literally just 3 points between the Sharks and Highlanders that top 6 could very easily look much different, just one round of upsets and we could very well have neither the Bulls or Sharks in there :S
With a probable win against the Lions coming up i think the Sharks have done enough to be relatively sure of a play-off place. Reds, Blues, Stormers and 'Saders too far ahead not to make it IMO. For teh top NZ side, the game between the Blues and Crusaders is probably going to determine that.
Well, with the Waratahs and Highlanders' losing streak they certainly let the Bulls in but with games against the Stormers and Sharks coming up the Tahs might still make it. Highlanders up against both Blues and 'Tahs.. I don't fancy their chances.
Highlanders are out, that is something that's for sure. Bulls and Sharks cannot lose both, so with the Sharks 6 points ahead of the Dunedin side, it seems they cannot catch up with them. Waratahs likely to win against the Brumbies, means the Highlanders need to win both, Bulls need to lose both for the Highlanders to make it.
I'm sure they'll make it to 6th spot; they should, SHOULD, beat both Brumbies and Highlanders, who are a bit off it and also face the Blues which will be tough.
But then again, they need to win BOTH these games as I'm sure the Bulls will pick up at least 1 win against either Stormers or Sharks. I would be surprised if they managed to beat both Stormers and Sharks though which would likely mean that the Waratahs, if they win BOTH (0 bonus points) still end up 1 point behind the likely Sharks results (I'm giving them a win against the Lions without a bonus point and a 1 point for losing within 7 against the Bulls). So in other words, the Tahs need to have results in SA go their way and win both their games or hope the Bulls lose to both Stormers and Sharks (quite likely).
So, in other words, anyone of Waratahs, Sharks and Bulls are in with a great shout. I would eb surprised if the results went the way of the Highlanders but they are the only other team with a chance.
Well, a win would do it for the Tahs. They don't even need to grab the bonus point. It's all in their own hands now. And since they're hosting the Brumbies at home, they really have the best cards to claim the sixth place at the cost of either the Bulls or the Sharks.
a) the Blues lost to the Highlanders and not grab a bonus point;
b) the Tahs defeat the Brumbies but not grab a bonus point;
c) the Sharks and the Bulls share the points and both teams would grab the try bonus point.
You'd have four teams (Blues, Tahs, Sharks, Bulls) with 56 points. Tahs and Bulls would qualify based on # of matches won, but who would be the third team? Blues cause they've got the most BP or Sharks cause they have (as of now) a better F/A ratio?
a) the Blues lost to the Highlanders and not grab a bonus point;
b) the Tahs defeat the Brumbies but not grab a bonus point;
c) the Sharks and the Bulls share the points and both teams would grab the try bonus point.
You'd have four teams (Blues, Tahs, Sharks, Bulls) with 56 points. Tahs and Bulls would qualify based on # of matches won, but who would be the third team? Blues cause they've got the most BP or Sharks cause they have (as of now) a better F/A ratio?
Assuming that a draw would class as half a win.....That would mean that the Bulls would be 4th (10.5 wins), Waratahs 5th (10 wins, better PD), Sharks 6th (10 wins, worse PD) and the Blues would miss out with 9.5 wins.....
Basically if the Blues do not pick up a point vs the Highlanders and the Waratahs win (BP or not).....then the Bulls and Sharks can BOTH make the playoffs with a bonus point draw.....which will be played after the other teams have......Hmmmmmm interesting......
Thought about going through and posting the finals scenarios for all the teams to determine where they would finish.....but too many combinations considering there are 7 results possible for each of the 6 relevant games.....which makes 117,649 combos.....
{Those results being..... (1) Win with BP (2) Win (3) Draw with BP (4) Draw (5) Loss with 2 BPs (6) Loss with BP (7) Loss
But as it stands here is the range of positions each team could finish up:
