Scotland's World Cup Chances

[Finerz]

With the Rugby World Cup just over a year away, I am starting to evaluate Scotland's chances of reaching the knockout stages.

Us being third placed in our pool started way back in the Autumn tests in 2008, where we narrowly lost to South Africa. This was because Chris Patterson went off injured due to a head knock with Juan Smith, leaving the kicking duties to Phil Godman, who subsequently missed 12 points worth of penalties and a drop goal. This would have won us the match, moved us up to 8th in the world ranking, thus putting us in the second tier and having a much better chance in the forthcoming World Cup.

In our pool in 2011 are England, Argentina, Georgia and the to be decided play off winner (either Romania or Uruguay). We start with a match against the play off winner followed by Georgia, two matches I am confident we will win. Next come Argentina, and my confidence has been boosted by the two wins there in the summer tests and the general rise in quality of Scottish Rugby under Andy Robinson. My confidence has risen enough so that I believe we will win this match, but only be a small margin. Finally come England, who, as the Scots, are on the up. They improved their performances towards the end of the Six Nations, as did Scotland, and have enjoyed some success in Australia in the summer. Again, I think it will be a close match, but I think England will just have the edge and win it.

This would leave us 2nd in pool C, through to the quarter finals to face the winner of pool A which is likely to be New Zealand, and this is where I believe our journey will stop.

So will Scotland retain their record of reaching the knockout stages in every World Cup (which only 5 teams have done), or will they fall short once again.

 

[ridgerunnersp]

Scotland's my team for NH, and I must say I'm really pleased with what Robbo has done. Obviously to make a dent they will have to learn how to score tries, which has been said before. But the series win in Argentina will be a massive psychological boost going into the WC, and as of this year, the England game should be a toss up. The Scots really have an outside chance to win the pool. Both the England and Argentina games should be massively physical forward battles. It'll be a real treat to watch.

 

[Peat]

The problem is its a bit difficult to say about England and Argentina right now.

England under Johnson have veered from extreme to extreme and this year the coaching team needs to step up and show real progress has been made and sustained. Argentina have not seen their full team together for a long while and I think could be a different propisition in the WC - and this is not mentioning injuries, which could really tilt things one way or the other.

I also feel that Scotland could really use a more or less entire backs line just popping up from nowhere.

In other words, this fence is very comfy thank you.

 

[smartcooky]

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

The problem is its a bit difficult to say about England and Argentina right now.

England under Johnson have veered from extreme to extreme and this year the coaching team needs to step up and show real progress has been made and sustained. Argentina have not seen their full team together for a long while and I think could be a different propisition in the WC - and this is not mentioning injuries, which could really tilt things one way or the other.

I also feel that Scotland could really use a more or less entire backs line just popping up from nowhere.

In other words, this fence is very comfy thank you.

What he said.

I will be rooting for Argentina in this pool but think anyone between England, Argentina and Scotland could go through top of the pool. Have to admit that I see Scotland's chances to do so as the slimmest.

 

[Amobokoboko]

It will be a close call for Scotland to get thru to the second round.
I would go for England and Argentina

 

[Seaton]

Thinking about it, I am going to be cheering on England in their first three macthes, as it could leave them in a position where a loss would still result in qualification, and still top the group, when they go into their last game against Scotland.
I still see Scotland vs. Argentina as the crunch game of the group, with the winner being the most likely to go through.

I've got butterflies :s

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

It all depends on Argentina IMO; they are the dark horse in this race as it is very difficult to determine where they are at any time prior to a world cup seeing as their best players are rarely all playing together and don't get an extended run together. I don't know if I should read too much in their beating France or losing to Scotland either way even though it was a pretty near full strength team.

 

[Seaton]

Just putting it out there that Scotland will play Ireland and Italy as their warm-ups.

 

[Melhor Time]

Scotland being overrated

Have we seen the best English team yet? No I doubt it.

Have we seen the best <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

</st1:country-region>Argentina </ST1team yet? Absolutely not.
<O

Have we seen the best Scottish team yet? Certainly, no question about it.

<O<O
<st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> have defeated <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region> as have <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland </st1:country-region>in the past year. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> have not played <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Australia </st1:country-region>for more than 7 years. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region> played as poorly as they possibly could to lose to <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> but played well to lose against <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region>. In other words, the Scottish win was a fluke as shown by a heavily injury weakend Pumas side defeating <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland </st1:country-region>the following week. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England</st1:country-region>, on the other hand, underlined themselves as a team of potential come New Zealand 2011. They defeated a team playing well.



I commented about this same topic elsewhere recently so any appologies if this is repetitive.There are two crucial things to acknowledge.

1. the <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> team will be quite different to the one that lost to Scotland this year.
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1</st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1</st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on">2. Scotland</st1:country-region> won the two tests without scoring a try in the first match and only one in the second. I see little reason to suggest Scotland <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1</st1:country-region>are likely to claim first or second in Pool B based on this. What about the fact that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region>, with a weaker team, defeated <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland</st1:country-region> at Murrayfield in November 2009? Do we just forget that altogether?
<O

<O


<st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> also faced <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England</st1:country-region> that month with another very depleted side and yet were competitive. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England</st1:country-region> scored one try to win 16-9. Earlier in the year <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> and Argentina had played two other matches with each team winning one match. Players far from being the best Argentine in their position started in these tests vs <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England.</st1:country-region> Names such as Abadie, Aramburu, Avramovic, Camacho, Commuzi, Galindo, Leonardi, Lozada and Orlandi were all in the starting lineup yet none of these players, I repeat, none were selected to play <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland this year. </st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"></st1:country-region>
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<O




<st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> fielded players in their starting XV in the two tests vs Scotland this year who will not make the team come New Zealand 2011. I am talking about Lucas Borges, Horacio Agulla, Santiago Fernández, Alfredo Lalanne, Agustin Figuerola and Genaro Fessia - then there are those who were on the bench. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> had so many injury problems that Ignacio Mieres was on the bench for the <ST1Tucumán test as the replacement flyhalf. He is uncapped and regarded as 6th choice for the Pumas 10 shirt after Hernández, Contepomi, Bosch, Fernández and Urdapilleta. They fielded a new fullback, a new 10-12 combination and a new 9-10 combination. All were untried and all were based on injuries not merit.<O</O
<O







What is interesting about the losses in terms of Argentina´s players is that the new faces were all amateurs but now ino the new season are professionals for top European clubs. Santiago Fernández is playing 12 for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Montpellier</st1:City> where he is first choice in this position and is already showing improvement in his game. I mentioned Borges and Agulla not going to make the XV come New Zealand 2011. There is a new Argentine wing who is uncapped playing for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Montpellier </st1:City>and he is scoring most of the teams points. He is Martín Bustos Moyano. He will feature for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Los Pumas</st1:country-region> this November ahead of Borges and Agulla. Martín Rodriguez Gurruchaga has been Stade Français´s best back so far this season and has played at both 15 and 12 and scoring good tries against good teams inc yesterday.

<st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> in contrast had their first choice players all playing except for Euan Murray and maybe Nathan Hines - who I would not pick as a starter for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1the Scots. </st1:country-region>the team was all there - Brown, Barclay, Beattie, Ford, Jacobson, Low, Hamilton, Kellock, Southwell, Sean Lamont, Evans, Morrison, Parks, Danielli and Lawson. Thats why <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1the Scots</st1:country-region> won. First choice XV together fresh from the 6 Nations. So, if <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland</st1:country-region> are to be considered a superior side why aren´t they scoring tries? Winning 24-18 but scoring no tries and conceeding two is worrying. Had <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> had equal preperation and an equal international calender I could not see <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1the Scots </st1:country-region>winning these two matches.Los Pumas should have won without the injured players.
<O
<O

Credit to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland</st1:country-region> for winning. it was a fantastic achievement. But nobody would dare suggest <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Argentina</st1:country-region> could play so badly again. A better team would have knocked Los Pumas over by 30 points in those two matches. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> were able to respond by smashing <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1France</st1:country-region> 41-13 a week latter. It truely silenced the critics. <O



What is important to point out about the win vs <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> is not that <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> are the 6 Nations Grand Slam Champions, nor that Les Bleus<ST1 played poorly. Rather, <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> both played well vs <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> in the Six Nations yet could not score tries and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1France</st1:country-region> were not switched on in either match yet still won both. <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> were out of tune vs all three of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Argentina </st1:country-region>this year but only lost to one of them: Argentina. The key is to score tries which again, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> could not do in defeating either <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region> or <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Argentina</st1:country-region> in the past 12 months. They did against <st1:country-region w:st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region> - two teams with vastly different styles of play and defensive paterns and who, crucially, are not in the same pool as <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland. </st1:country-region>Scotland´s game is not suited to defeating Argentina or England who will have their best teams. They will need to play differently.


<O
I think third place in the group is on the horizon for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland.</st1:country-region>

 

[durbutter]

IMO a lot will depend on how Argentina will deal with being contenders for the first time, as opposed to how they have been constantly underrated in the past.

That and how well the team will gel together. I mean they haven't had a full squad together since the last world cup i'd say!!

 

[Amobokoboko]

If Scotland gives 110% and doesn't make any mistakes they will make it in to the second round.
Would be good.

 

[Peat]

Think Melhor Time is being a bit harsh on the Scots who turned around massively in the 6N and have looked a far different propisition. But he is bang on when he says they have struggled to score tries.

And I do not see where the change here comes from. I can't for the life of me. They've got two good but fading scrum-halfs and... *scratches head* I like Cairns. Thom Evans' injury was a rugby tragedy, but there's no undoing it now. I would imagine Tim Visser will get capped come the end of three years in Scotland but that won't be soon enough. Oh, Patterson's good, forgot about him. The Lamonts are good when not injured. Danielli, great servant for Ulster, not so much for Scotland. They could really use Jackson coming good at fly-half but I doubt he will in time.

Which is not to say it will be a gimme. Scotland will field a strong pack with an immense back row and a very good kicker. But it's difficult to win when you can't get a try.

 

[MichaelBoard]

I think the Scots have a decent chance at going far in the world cup and I imagine they'd be aiming for the semis or quarter finals as minimum, and after that its anyones because they are after all all one off games. They've got a very good pack and a decent backline. Its between them and England to win the group so provided they get out of their group which I would expect then get a decent draw in the knockout stages then you never know

 

[eot345]

im sorry to be a kill joy here but i think scotland have little chance of beating england who i believe are really starting to gel.
England have a stronger pack and a better backline

as for scot vs Arg

who knows ??

 

[Seaton]

im sorry to be a kill joy here but i think scotland have little chance of beating england who i believe are really starting to gel.
England have a stronger pack and a better backline

as for scot vs Arg

who knows ??

Not being the killjoy, it seems the consencus (sp.) that the English will win the group, and should I have money to bet, it would be where I would put it.

 

[Amobokoboko]

After reading this I'm getting really curious about the upcoming 6 nations

 

[Finerz]

Have we seen the best English team yet? No I doubt it.

Have we seen the best <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

</st1:country-region>Argentina </ST1team yet? Absolutely not.
<O

Have we seen the best Scottish team yet? Certainly, no question about it.

<O<O
<st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> have defeated <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region> as have <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland </st1:country-region>in the past year. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> have not played <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Australia </st1:country-region>for more than 7 years. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region> played as poorly as they possibly could to lose to <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> but played well to lose against <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region>. In other words, the Scottish win was a fluke as shown by a heavily injury weakend Pumas side defeating <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland </st1:country-region>the following week. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England</st1:country-region>, on the other hand, underlined themselves as a team of potential come New Zealand 2011. They defeated a team playing well.



I commented about this same topic elsewhere recently so any appologies if this is repetitive.There are two crucial things to acknowledge.

1. the <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> team will be quite different to the one that lost to Scotland this year.
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1</st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1</st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on">2. Scotland</st1:country-region> won the two tests without scoring a try in the first match and only one in the second. I see little reason to suggest Scotland <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1</st1:country-region>are likely to claim first or second in Pool B based on this. What about the fact that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region>, with a weaker team, defeated <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland</st1:country-region> at Murrayfield in November 2009? Do we just forget that altogether?
<O

<O


<st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> also faced <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England</st1:country-region> that month with another very depleted side and yet were competitive. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England</st1:country-region> scored one try to win 16-9. Earlier in the year <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> and Argentina had played two other matches with each team winning one match. Players far from being the best Argentine in their position started in these tests vs <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England.</st1:country-region> Names such as Abadie, Aramburu, Avramovic, Camacho, Commuzi, Galindo, Leonardi, Lozada and Orlandi were all in the starting lineup yet none of these players, I repeat, none were selected to play <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland this year. </st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"></st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"></st1:country-region>
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<O




<st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> fielded players in their starting XV in the two tests vs Scotland this year who will not make the team come New Zealand 2011. I am talking about Lucas Borges, Horacio Agulla, Santiago Fernández, Alfredo Lalanne, Agustin Figuerola and Genaro Fessia - then there are those who were on the bench. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> had so many injury problems that Ignacio Mieres was on the bench for the <ST1Tucumán test as the replacement flyhalf. He is uncapped and regarded as 6th choice for the Pumas 10 shirt after Hernández, Contepomi, Bosch, Fernández and Urdapilleta. They fielded a new fullback, a new 10-12 combination and a new 9-10 combination. All were untried and all were based on injuries not merit.<O</O
<O







What is interesting about the losses in terms of Argentina´s players is that the new faces were all amateurs but now ino the new season are professionals for top European clubs. Santiago Fernández is playing 12 for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Montpellier</st1:City> where he is first choice in this position and is already showing improvement in his game. I mentioned Borges and Agulla not going to make the XV come New Zealand 2011. There is a new Argentine wing who is uncapped playing for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Montpellier </st1:City>and he is scoring most of the teams points. He is Martín Bustos Moyano. He will feature for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Los Pumas</st1:country-region> this November ahead of Borges and Agulla. Martín Rodriguez Gurruchaga has been Stade Français´s best back so far this season and has played at both 15 and 12 and scoring good tries against good teams inc yesterday.

<st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> in contrast had their first choice players all playing except for Euan Murray and maybe Nathan Hines - who I would not pick as a starter for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1the Scots. </st1:country-region>the team was all there - Brown, Barclay, Beattie, Ford, Jacobson, Low, Hamilton, Kellock, Southwell, Sean Lamont, Evans, Morrison, Parks, Danielli and Lawson. Thats why <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1the Scots</st1:country-region> won. First choice XV together fresh from the 6 Nations. So, if <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland</st1:country-region> are to be considered a superior side why aren´t they scoring tries? Winning 24-18 but scoring no tries and conceeding two is worrying. Had <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> had equal preperation and an equal international calender I could not see <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1the Scots </st1:country-region>winning these two matches.Los Pumas should have won without the injured players.
<O
<O

Credit to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland</st1:country-region> for winning. it was a fantastic achievement. But nobody would dare suggest <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Argentina</st1:country-region> could play so badly again. A better team would have knocked Los Pumas over by 30 points in those two matches. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> were able to respond by smashing <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1France</st1:country-region> 41-13 a week latter. It truely silenced the critics. <O



What is important to point out about the win vs <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> is not that <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> are the 6 Nations Grand Slam Champions, nor that Les Bleus<ST1 played poorly. Rather, <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> both played well vs <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> in the Six Nations yet could not score tries and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1France</st1:country-region> were not switched on in either match yet still won both. <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region> were out of tune vs all three of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">England</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Argentina </st1:country-region>this year but only lost to one of them: Argentina. The key is to score tries which again, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> could not do in defeating either <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region> or <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Argentina</st1:country-region> in the past 12 months. They did against <st1:country-region w:st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region> - two teams with vastly different styles of play and defensive paterns and who, crucially, are not in the same pool as <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland. </st1:country-region>Scotland´s game is not suited to defeating Argentina or England who will have their best teams. They will need to play differently.


<O
I think third place in the group is on the horizon for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland.</st1:country-region>

I take on all your points. Just a couple of things. England defeated the Wallabies because of poor kicking from Matt Giteau (missed a penalty to win), as did Scotland (missed a conversion to win). Also, in Argentina, we were missing Chris Patterson who is an influential player in the squad, and with these players back, we will perform, and keep improving up to the RWC. I also think France played very poorly against Argentina. And let us not forget the form we were in against Ireland. We scored 2 tries and it was an overall brilliant display, one which you have missed out conveniently from your list.

I still don't think we have seen the best of Andy Robinsons side. He has done wonders and I expect him to keep improving the team all the way up to RWC.

We won't know for sure until the Autumn tests are done, and then we can make a more educated prediction.

And the smiley faces are irritating.

 

[LittleGuy]

Scotland can definately advance, but it might come down to bonus points and the outcome of the England vs. Argentina game. Don't count out Georgia for either a spectacular upset or costing teams bonus points, their team matches up well with the others in their pool and they will do their best to slow down games. The playoff winner should be a pretty comfortable win for the Scots although Romania can take a physical toll with their hard tackling, Uruguay would be slighty more creative but they tend to fade badly after the 55 minute mark when Pablo Lemoine has to be subbed out, but I think odds are on Romania making the World Cup. Scotland has a great scehdule facing the two weakest teams first and then should target heavily the loser of the Argentina and England game. That being said its not impossible for the Scots to go 4-0 in this pool if the breaks go their way. Robinson has this team on the way up although injuries to any of the key players would be devastating as depth is an issue. Semi-Finals is a bit optimistic as Scotland have to face either New Zealand or(barring a huge Tongan or Canadian upset) France.

 

[Dizzy]

[Insert thread ***le here] are slim.