[RWC2023 QF4] France vs South Africa (15/10/2023)

[dirty harry]

I've never understood why people think doing anything other than avoiding a blitz defence is a good idea.

To beat the Blitz you have to do 1 of 2 things...

You have to turn the blitz, or slow the blitz. You can run through a blitz, look at the power differentiation between Fiji and Portugal last night, Portugal got up hard and fast, and Fiji allowed it to thinking their superb physicality would break through...

Ireland tried numerous things, and not much worked, they threw the wider pass, they fronted up, they used the boot. SA had a countermeasures for most of it.

I think the best player in the world to deal with SA blitz would be Dupont, his speed of thought is that good he would slow the defence down to a crawl within 30 mins.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Momentum, yes
I think the recent difference last autumn was a four point win to France, but SA had an early red card?
I genuinely think it comes down to this... to beat a blitz dfefense you need to play trhough it, so sharp footwork at the line in Danty and the back row forwards, they have that. Then you need offloads, and the crucial bit for France is whether or not they can stick the offloads or cough up possession
That and Ramos potentially going haywire one way or the other

Also Am has been absolutely critical to this, teams have struggled to get around him because of his defensive reads and intelligence. He's so so good. If it's Kriel at 13, that's definitely going to help France, and it's most likely to be at this point

Yes, PSDT got (a deserved) red at the 11 minute mark.

TBF, France didn't score a backs try vs us in November and it was Kriel at 13. Both their tries were on the fringes off rucks stopped at our line. And Kriel has been in much better form with seeing more time at 13 and has been at Am lvls on D at least this RWC. An in form Am though would be grand but I just don't think he is 100%.

Novemeber line-ups for reference:
France: 15 Thomas Ramos; 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Yoram Moefana; 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (captain); 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Anthony Jelonch; 5 Thibaud Flament, 4 Cameron Woki; 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacement: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Sipili Falatea, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Bastien Chalureau, 21 Sekou Macalou, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Matthieu Jalibert

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Albertus Smith, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Retshegofaditswe Nche.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marvin Orie, 20 Deon Fourie, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Makazole Mapimpi.

Think for us we'll see
Le Roux replaced at 15 with Willemse
Kitshoff swapping bench with Nche
Nyakane probably in for Koch (he was injured Nov)
Snyman in for Orie is huge
Pollard/Libbok in for Willemse at 10 is also a pretty big upgrade
Am or a 6th forward in for Mapimpi on the bench
Eitehr of Vermeulen or Wiese in for Smith at 8

Only missing Marx off the bench. Other than that its all upgrades for us. And better form as well. This isn't an end of year game for us this time round. That's the main reason I'm backing us here.

 

[corny]

Two things...

The degree to which the French crowd complain about minor, sometimes imagined injustices is a big factor in the game. They create a strong pressure and it'll take a really strong performance from a ref to not to let that get in the way of a fair game.

SA will have to deal with the French jackal threats. In games where they mean business France really go after the ruck and it generates huge momentum for them when they get the turnover. Don't play in your own half SA. Return to the kick to pressure game.

Want SA to win but I can see France doing enough.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

French jersey ready for this one. Marchons marchons

 

[Gray_Mouser]

Difficult to predict. I see this match as a bit of a grudge match in that most South Africans feel this RWC was ours to host but France bought it. If it were in SA- I'd favor us heavily. France has a poor record in SA even against mediocra Bok sides. In France is a much different story.

Last match was November which France won 30-26 BUT we played 70 minutes with PSdT rightfully out with a reckless red card. Add to that I feel our sides will be a bit stronger than the Nov side and France's arguably a little less so... Well, its a hell of a mountain to climb but I'm backing us why not.

In Nov France had the balance of it for territory and beat us because of two more penalties. Ramos is such a weapon! We just need to play in the correct half and keep it there. I truly hope our approach here is more in line with our strengths than what we went with vs Ireland in the pools. We need to win the 1st 20 minutes. Make the french doubt and chase will be the key. My biggest fear almost is the crowd and the expected 50/50's that one would expect the home side to get- the margins are so small. I am surprised to see neutral fans backing SA- I'd have thought France would be seen as somewhat clear favorites?

But anyway, I think this is going to be the match of the QFs. May the best team win and wondering who we go with at 10 and which Libbok pitches. Stats say he kicks either 100% or 40% and under. Not one for the middle ground, Libbok. You don't want to punch with one hand tied v this French side.

Last match, Dupont was also shown a red card during the second half, but your point stands. It was really close, and with a full half at 15 vs 14, it shouldn't have been. SA goal accuracy was surprisingly good though.

It was also a long time ago. Around that time, we also had a very difficult game against Australia.

I'm not sure Dupont should play. Seriously, if a bok charges at you, can you really not think about your broken jaw?

Anyway, I'm looking forward to that one. Let the real fun begin!

 

[ncurd]

Scoring against the Boks should also be reasonably difficult. Defence has been a standout feature under the Nienanber HC reign and as you would rightly expect from a defence guru.

I think it's one if those things I don't care how well drilled a defense is. France will cause trouble and do things in attack no other team can currently do. This isn't a forgone conclusion by any stretch.

My point was more if SA try to make this purely an arm wrestle low scoring match they'll lose. You have to be willing to attack and attack well.

 

[IT157]

Also Am has been absolutely critical to this, teams have struggled to get around him because of his defensive reads and intelligence. He's so so good. If it's Kriel at 13, that's definitely going to help France, and it's most likely to be at this point

He's the best 13 in the world imo.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Toughest one to call. But hope Les Bleus manage to do it with or without Dupont. Allez Les Bleus! But will they finally break the Boks' record of not having yet lost a RWC knockout game to NH side?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

As I posted in an earlier match, the Boks are in a really weird spot. Possibly the weirdest the spot I have seen at a WC. I think their chances in a SF and Final are greatly enhanced by Pollard at 10 (given Faf and Libbo have not taken their chances). The pack, plus the defence plus Pollard's boot is going to be a strong combination against Ireland, Wales and Argentina (or frankly, anyone else in the tournament) and in my opinion makes them favourites in any of those matchups.

However, France's achilles heel appears to be their defence in open play and you need to target that (which a Pollard/DDA tandem does not do). So I much prefer Libbok at 10 and Willemse at 15 for this match as the Boks should then target 25-30 points, which should be more than enough for them to defend. Get into a pack battle and penalty kick battle against this French attack and Ramos's boot and we are getting into coinflip territory here if the french pack is disciplined.

Am is pretty much my favourite player but surely he shouldn't be starting any match before the final at the earliest.

For France, if they can stiffen in defence they have the beating of anyone (I am a late convert to Jalibert) if they avoid their frequent 20 minute AWOL period (which they have avoided at this RWC). But I've been riding the "french defence is regressing" horse all year, so I'm not going to stop now despite the ABs only putting 13 (?) on them (which I will attribute to the ABs being far off the level of the top 2 in the world).

 

[Grizwald]

This is going to be one hell of a game. I expect a low scoring cagey affair like the Ire vs SA game.

I tend to agree that France are missing a big lump at lock with no Willemese but Franco Mostert isn't huge and comparable to Woki. Ramos won't miss many kicks, starting Pollard feels like a bit of a risk with the amount of rugby he's played and totally changes the way South Africa play vs Manie Libbok, I wouldn't expect Am to come straight back in.

France being at home I'd give them the slight advantage, SA can be pretty irresistible when they get going. Going to be epic (I hope).

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

So Ben O'Keefe it is. Can't complain with that appointment even though I'd have liked a more technically pedantic ref.

 

[dirty harry]

So Ben O'Keefe it is. Can't complain with that appointment even though I'd have liked a more technically pedantic ref.

I'm so happy this one didnt get a pedantic!!!! The breakdown is going to be so ferocious I'd like to see a bit of leniency...

I have this sneaking feeling this game is so big, the French crowd so demanding of penalties for every action of the opposition, the ref is going to be under so much pressure from both teams, either we are going to see a free for all or I'm going to go to bed with whistling in my ears.

Fingers crossed for the former

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Tight but SA to take this one. Not what i want, what i believe is going to happen. I get Fra are at home, the crowd, la Marseillaise, the lot. All of that doesn't compensate for having Ntamack out and Dupont half-injured. Sad but true. SA's game plan is more straightforward and easier to execute and that matters when games are close or under stress.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Apparently we are only going to announce our team on Friday which nicely feeds into my (probably delusional) hope that we are going to go into the knock out game(s) with more focus/seriousness than what we've seen so far. Worth the wait if so.

 

[David Meacham]

Dear Forum,

I'm not sure this is right forum for this question, but I've two semi-final tickets great seat for SATURDAY OCT 21st, so winner of this game.....BUT I am Irish fan, so looking for a French or South African fan who has the other tickets (friday Oct 20th to organize a swap... Not looking to sell or make any profit - I can do this on RWC site...Hoping to find honest rugby fan here for fair swap... Old school, rugby style... Thats all...

Best David Meacham

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Antoine Dupont: France captain 'very active in training' before possible Rugby World Cup return

Antoine Dupont remains in contention for France's World Cup quarter-final against South Africa, says forwards coach William Servat.

www.bbc.co.uk

At 100% but looks like he was stung by an entire hornet's nest. Will he be able to see?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Dupont and Am at their best I'd put into a world xv but that said even though I would love both fit and in this match I hope that undercooked players won't be put at risk. Their call though at the end of the day.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Shouldn't the Boks have announced their team
By now?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Sceptical on Dupont, might be 100% in training but you don't know how you'll react to full contact until it happens, and he does have....a broken skull

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Shouldn't the Boks have announced their team
By now?

Specifically waiting till Friday afternoon this time around.

Sceptical on Dupont, might be 100% in training but you don't know how you'll react to full contact until it happens, and he does have....a broken skull

I can't imagine that you cannot be affected by it. Unless one feels Dupont at 90 percent is better than the next best.

A forward with a head brace limiting vision is one thing. Your 9 though?

That said we took a shot with a barely fit Fourie du Preez.. 2015. Probably our best option but didn't pay off. Clearly being off his top and though that wasn't all that contributed to an earlier exit it certainly was a factor.