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RWC 2011 The 3rd/4th place: Wales vs. Australia

Why is McCabes defense raved about so much. Didn't anybody see how many times Jean De Villiers ran past him a couple of weeks ago?
 
Why is McCabes defense raved about so much. Didn't anybody see how many times Jean De Villiers ran past him a couple of weeks ago?
Because his defense is exceptional - not only does he seldom miss a tackle, his defense is always punishing. I do remember him missing a tackle on De Villiers - the reason I remember it as it was one of the only times I've seen him miss a tackle all year! Stats from the Australia v South Africa game (http://www.verusco.com/verusco_stats_portal_g.php?compid=7&yearid=11&weekid=5&gameid=3&team=2) showed McCabe made 19 tackles - the most in the game - in only 51 minutes of rugby. That's pretty exceptional for a midfield back!
 
I see the Welsh taking this game. They will be firing after their controversial loss to France. And Australia seem as if they don't even care, must've only been here for Tindall's stag-do as well.
 
Hoping for a Walles victory, with or without "style"...
Without would also mean that they learn very very fast !!
 
Really not sure who I want to win here. I have thoroughly enjoyed the way Wales have played this tournament so want to support them, but I just feel I should support Australia for some reason. Australia is sort of like New Zealand's less talented older brother: you like nothing better than to beat them, but you feel kinda obliged to support them at other times!

Anyways... I'm hoping this will be quite an attacking game, as neither team has much to lose. No-one really remembers who got 3rd or 4th. Wales should have the edge up front despite the absence of Adam Jones. I have never been that impressed with with Paul James, but he should be more than a match for Slipper (who is a good young prop, but still has a long way to go). On the other side Jenkins should destroy Ma'afu, who is a hopeless scrummager despite his size. The locks look pretty evenly matched - I've been incredibly impressed with Charteris this tournament. I'm really not sure how the lineouts will go: both teams have generally been pretty secure on their own ball, but both have had some bad off-days (Wales vs France, and Australia vs South Africa). Polota-Nau can have some bad days, so Wales (Charteris in particular) could target Australia's lineouts. The loose-forwards are pretty evenly matched, but Australia will likely have and edge at the breakdown through Pocock (and the fact Warburton isn't there to counter him). The AB's largely neutralized Pocock last week by forcing him to be the primary tackler (rather that the second man arriving) so it will be interesting to see whether Wales adopt similar tactics. I'm interested to see how Higginbotham goes at 6 for Australia; he can be a big threat with ball in hand, but I still feel he plays a bit too loose to be effective at this level (I personally much prefer Lydiate's style of play).

The halves combinations will again be a key to this match. Phillips has been pretty impressive this RWC - his distribution is still questionable at times, but I do like the running threat he possess. Genia and Cooper both need big games, and with the pressure off this week Cooper may well excel. I'm interested to see how Barnes goes at 12 - he will certainly bring some more creative options to Australia's attack, but I do feel Australia will miss McCabe direct running and powerful defense (especially on Roberts). Roberts for me has been the best 12 of the RWC (probably followed by Nonu), while Davies has had his moments (still not convinced with him though to be honest). I feel Australia has the edge in the outside backs, not because Wales are poor in this department, but simply because Australia are just so strong here. Ioane was Australia's best player last weekend, and I expect he may give George North quite a hard time. North looks to be a quality young player, but he will have to make sure his defensive positioning is perfect vs Ioane, as if it is slightly out Ioane may exploit this. O'Connor vs Williams, and Halfpenny vs Beale should be great matchups too - if Beale was at full fitness and in top form I'd pick him over Halfpenny ever day, but he has struggled with injury, while Halfpenny has really impressed me this tournament.

Overall I'm picking there to be a few tries scored, with Australia winning by 5-10 points in the end. However it games like this it is really hard to know what will happen.
 
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Wales to nick it in the dying minutes. Interestingly, that'll put the rankings like this (if France lose the WC Final):

1: France/New Zealand
2: New Zealand/France
3: South Africa
4: Wales
5: Australia

Whoever wins the final goes top of the rankings.
 
Wales to nick it in the dying minutes. Interestingly, that'll put the rankings like this (if France lose the WC Final):

1: France/New Zealand
2: New Zealand/France
3: South Africa
4: Wales
5: Australia

Whoever wins the final goes top of the rankings.

The doubling of the points in RWC can really cause the rankings to be badly skewed. For example if Wales win by 15 or more (and the AB's win) Wales will go to 2nd in the world. In contrast if they lose (even by 1 point) they will drop down to 9th (behind Argentina)!
 
fair enough... I just got the impression watching it live that De Villiers was making lots of ground...I remember the same miss tackle you mention. But yeah... I'm still of the opinion Aussie have at least one or two better options at 12.
 
Because his defense is exceptional - not only does he seldom miss a tackle, his defense is always punishing. I do remember him missing a tackle on De Villiers - the reason I remember it as it was one of the only times I've seen him miss a tackle all year! Stats from the Australia v South Africa game (http://www.verusco.com/verusco_stats_portal_g.php?compid=7&yearid=11&weekid=5&gameid=3&team=2) showed McCabe made 19 tackles - the most in the game - in only 51 minutes of rugby. That's pretty exceptional for a midfield back!

fair enough... I just got the impression watching it live that De Villiers was making lots of ground...I remember the same miss tackle you mention. But yeah... I'm still of the opinion Aussie have at least one or two better options at 12.​
 
fair enough... I just got the impression watching it live that De Villiers was making lots of ground...I remember the same miss tackle you mention. But yeah... I'm still of the opinion Aussie have at least one or two better options at 12.

You certainly wouldn't be the only one; the vast majority of people I've talked to have suggested the same thing. Personally I'm not convinced though, as the Cooper/Barnes combo has never impressed me. They have such contrasting styles of play: Coopers first instinct is to attack, while Barnes is far more likely to play conservatively. In theory it sounds like a great combo - they could utilize the strengths of either depending on the situation - but for some reason they have really failed to fire when they have played together. I will certainly be watching them both very closely tonight.
 
fair enough... I just got the impression watching it live that De Villiers was making lots of ground...I remember the same miss tackle you mention. But yeah... I'm still of the opinion Aussie have at least one or two better options at 12.​

De Villiers only makes ground when he loiters in the opposition backline and happens to recieve a pass :D
 
[h=1]Some numbers to consider

Points
[/h]
  • Wales are 2nd highest in average points for and 2nd lowest with point against.
  • One of those strange stats is that all the tries conceded by Wales have been converted so a try scored by Wales' opposition is effectively worth seven points.
  • Both teams are conceding 0.8 tries a RWC game.
  • Australia is 42% more likely to take a RWC penalty goal on the LEFT side of the field than the right side of the field.
  • Australia is 38% more likely to score a RWC try in on the LEFT side of the field than the right side.
  • Australia is 3 &1/2 times as likely to concede a try on the RIGHT side of the field than the left side of the field.
  • Wales are twice as likely to take a RWC penalty goal on the LEFT side of the field than the right side of the field.
  • Wales are twice as likely to score a RWC try in on the LEFT side of the field than the right side.
  • Wales are almost three times as likely to concede RWC penalty that ends up as a goal kick from the RIGHT side of the field than the left side of the field.
  • Wales are 66% more likely to concede a try on the LEFT side of the field than the right side of the field.
  • Australia kickers: In RWC: O'Connor 77% (17 from 22) Cooper 50% (4/8) Barnes 80% (4/5) Beale 0/1. In 2011: O'Connor 71% (79 from 1112) Cooper 67% (84/126) Barnes 53% (9/17) Beale 71% (59/83).
  • Wales kickers in RWC: Hook 54% (7/13), Jones 92% (11/12), Halfpenny 1/2. In 6-nations Hook 76% (12/17), Jones 73% (8/11) Halfpenny 1/1.
  • Drop goals if it comes down to it, in RWC (6-nations): 0/1 (Hook 1/3), Cooper 1/1 (5/8), Genia 0/2, Barnes 0/2.
 
them some ruckin good stats. Another stat is that this game is 100% likely to be forgotten once the final has been played :D anywho, go WALES.
 
With the skipper missing, a misfiring lineout and James Hook at ten I'm sure Wales will lose by 10-15 points.
 
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