Really not sure who I want to win here. I have thoroughly enjoyed the way Wales have played this tournament so want to support them, but I just feel I should support Australia for some reason. Australia is sort of like New Zealand's less talented older brother: you like nothing better than to beat them, but you feel kinda obliged to support them at other times!
Anyways... I'm hoping this will be quite an attacking game, as neither team has much to lose. No-one really remembers who got 3rd or 4th. Wales should have the edge up front despite the absence of Adam Jones. I have never been that impressed with with Paul James, but he should be more than a match for Slipper (who is a good young prop, but still has a long way to go). On the other side Jenkins should destroy Ma'afu, who is a hopeless scrummager despite his size. The locks look pretty evenly matched - I've been incredibly impressed with Charteris this tournament. I'm really not sure how the lineouts will go: both teams have generally been pretty secure on their own ball, but both have had some bad off-days (Wales vs France, and Australia vs South Africa). Polota-Nau can have some bad days, so Wales (Charteris in particular) could target Australia's lineouts. The loose-forwards are pretty evenly matched, but Australia will likely have and edge at the breakdown through Pocock (and the fact Warburton isn't there to counter him). The AB's largely neutralized Pocock last week by forcing him to be the primary tackler (rather that the second man arriving) so it will be interesting to see whether Wales adopt similar tactics. I'm interested to see how Higginbotham goes at 6 for Australia; he can be a big threat with ball in hand, but I still feel he plays a bit too loose to be effective at this level (I personally much prefer Lydiate's style of play).
The halves combinations will again be a key to this match. Phillips has been pretty impressive this RWC - his distribution is still questionable at times, but I do like the running threat he possess. Genia and Cooper both need big games, and with the pressure off this week Cooper may well excel. I'm interested to see how Barnes goes at 12 - he will certainly bring some more creative options to Australia's attack, but I do feel Australia will miss McCabe direct running and powerful defense (especially on Roberts). Roberts for me has been the best 12 of the RWC (probably followed by Nonu), while Davies has had his moments (still not convinced with him though to be honest). I feel Australia has the edge in the outside backs, not because Wales are poor in this department, but simply because Australia are just so strong here. Ioane was Australia's best player last weekend, and I expect he may give George North quite a hard time. North looks to be a quality young player, but he will have to make sure his defensive positioning is perfect vs Ioane, as if it is slightly out Ioane may exploit this. O'Connor vs Williams, and Halfpenny vs Beale should be great matchups too - if Beale was at full fitness and in top form I'd pick him over Halfpenny ever day, but he has struggled with injury, while Halfpenny has really impressed me this tournament.
Overall I'm picking there to be a few tries scored, with Australia winning by 5-10 points in the end. However it games like this it is really hard to know what will happen.