Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[tewdric]

Just remeber Arg should have won against NZ

Lost to aus by 6

and bar a stupid call on sat should have beaten a Bok C side

World ratings should look more like this

NZ
SA
ENG
Wal
Aus
Ireland
Arg
France
Scotland

Wales cant be nr 1 if they;ve never beaten NZ

The world rankings are evidence-based and reflect current form and recent consistency, rather than rely on historical bias and what we might want the answer to be based on our legacy belief system.

The rankings are regularly reviewed academically and have been found to have significant predictive value.

Wales haven't beaten NZ since 1956, but the current rankings suggest they would if they played them next weekend.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Wales haven't beaten NZ since 1956, but the current rankings suggest they would if they played them next weekend.

Proves they're duff then, doesn't it?


If Ireland win this weekend they'll go no.1 and NZ drop to 3rd. Would he pretty funny

 

[ForumWhore]

I wouldn't predict Wales beating any other team in the top 6 away from home.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Proves they're duff then, doesn't it?


If Ireland win this weekend they'll go no.1 and NZ drop to 3rd. Would he pretty funny

Would you lads beat us please? If we hold a no. 1 ranking in the build up to the world cup I guarantee we lose to Russia!

Also any world rankings that can be as volatile as rugby's can be in one weekend of fixtures (NZ could have gone sixth last week) have to be taken with a pinch of salt, rankings only really work in sports like golf and tennis when they're based off tournament results rather than one off fixtures too.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

The world rankings are evidence-based and reflect current form and recent consistency, rather than rely on historical bias and what we might want the answer to be based on our legacy belief system.

The rankings are regularly reviewed academically and have been found to have significant predictive value.

Wales haven't beaten NZ since 1956, but the current rankings suggest they would if they played them next weekend.

They won't beat them until they get over Andy Haden. Some years off yet I reckon .

Rankings are irrelevant.

Wales can lift the RWC, but they'll need someone else to do the dirty work on the Kiwis. The last time the winners knocked out NZ was 95 - RSA in the final AET, dodgy food etc. The only other time was back in the amateur era in 91 when Aus did them in the semis and went on to beat Eng in the final - when Campese wasn't guilty of a deliberate knock on. In 99 and 07 France did the honours on behalf of the winners and in the glorious 03 campaign Aus did the business for us.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

So between now and the start of RWC on 20 September thought it would be good to revisit the previous 8 World Cup finals. First up the inaugural one in 1987:

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

So between now and the start of RWC on 20 September thought it would be good to revisit the previous 8 World Cup finals. First up the inaugural one in 1987:

Look forward to the Welsh and Irish highlights

Quite depressing that the 16 teams to have contested the 8 finals come from only 5 countries.

Wins: NZ 3, RSA 2, Aus 2, Eng 1.

Runners up: Fra 3, Eng 2, Aus 2, NZ 1

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Look forward to the Welsh and Irish highlights

Quite depressing that the 16 teams to have contested the 8 finals come from only 5 countries.

Wins: NZ 3, RSA 2, Aus 2, Eng 1.

Runners up: Fra 3, Eng 2, Aus 2, NZ 1

True, but that record is bound to end eventually and of the new countries to make the final Wales and Ireland are in prime position. Still a big hurdle for them to jump but not impossible. Until then we can rib their fans for their failure not to get past QF/semi. .

Look at the Wendyball World Cup and how many teams have won that and after the first 8 got to the final. Teams like Holland, Argentina, even France after not getting to one until 1998. Now they have two WCs. And of course Croatia. Still I think the RWC will largely still be dominated by the usual suspects.

 

[TRF_heineken]

True, but that record is bound to end eventually and of the new countries to make the final Wales and Ireland are in prime position. Still a big hurdle for them to jump but not impossible. Until then we can rib their fans for their failure not to get past QF/semi. .

Look at the Wendyball World Cup and how many teams have won that and after the first 8 got to the final. Teams like Holland, Argentina, even France after not getting to one until 1998. Now they have two WCs. And of course Croatia. Still I think the RWC will largely still be dominated by the usual suspects.

But that is also not a fair assessment to make though, as rugby relies a lot on the physical attributes of the players, and in soccer less so.

Countries like NZ and The Pacific islands will always be able to spawn big strong and fast guys, and we're recently seeing what strong forwards people from African descent can produce with the likes of Beast and Nyakane and even Mujati.

Geographical composition of people's genetics will have a big impact on the players and their teams, and the only way to compensate for teams not naturally producing those guys, is to poach. But that is a discussion for another thread.

Instead these teams who don't have that natural resource rely on wit, cunning, and a lot of training and try to impose the rules in their favour.

But that might bring them only so far.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

It makes sense that only the countries that have made a final have made a final. With the possible exception of NZ who have a small population but other advantages, they all have the advantage of always having the talent pool to do so, or at least should have the talent barring massive failings of their own. Ireland and Wales don't, its a simple numbers game, throughout the history of rugby in general they've always had generational teams and consecutive dud years in between. eg. between them Ireland and Wales won 12 tier 1 internationals in the 90s.

I don't know Wales' rugby history so well but Ireland "only" fell below reasonable expectations in '99, '07 (Wales did too this year) and '15, and of those only '15 were we expected to get past the QF. The obvious difference between Ireland and Wales is that Ireland have never exceeded expectations.

In contrast arguably the worst squad England ever brought to a RWC (definitely down their in terms of talent) reached a final, look at any Ireland squad from the 90's or Welsh around the turn of the millenium, never going to happen.

I know that numbers don't mean much in terms of putting out the best 23 possible at any given moment, but doing so consistently over a long period of time it definitely does... Which improves your chance at having the best 23 at any given time if we want to go down that rabbit hole.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

But that is also not a fair assessment to make though, as rugby relies a lot on the physical attributes of the players, and in soccer less so.

Countries like NZ and The Pacific islands will always be able to spawn big strong and fast guys, and we're recently seeing what strong forwards people from African descent can produce with the likes of Beast and Nyakane and even Mujati.

Geographical composition of people's genetics will have a big impact on the players and their teams, and the only way to compensate for teams not naturally producing those guys, is to poach. But that is a discussion for another thread.

Instead these teams who don't have that natural resource rely on wit, cunning, and a lot of training and try to impose the rules in their favour.

But that might bring them only so far.

I get your point Heiny. I was making a macro overview of the sport and how it can change. We are only in our sport going into our 9th World Cup compared to Wendyball's 21 so far. Of course the biggest point of difference is the physicality of Rugby compared to Wendyball And that will favour certain nations and genetic makeup of players it produces or can poach legally.

But sport does and can change and the evolve and it would be a sad indictment if by the 21st Rugby World Cup that the same 4 nations have
Won the RWC. I would hope more. France being the obvious one if they ever got their act together i.e. great new generation of players and playing at home.

 

[tewdric]

I wouldn't predict Wales beating any other team in the top 6 away from home.

But the world rankings (which give a weighting to allow for home advantage) do and they are objective.

 

[ncurd]

All the world cup ranking are currently indicative of is any one of the top 5 teams would likely win at home and lose away even then it too close to call. Teams are treated as 3 ranking point higher when at home so at home England are actually 0.36 points ahead of Wales.

They're still ********.

 

[ncurd]

Just because I'm in that mood

All member countries have a rating, typically between 0 and 100. The top side in the world will normally have a rating above 90.
1(2)WALES 89.43

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

But the world rankings (which give a weighting to allow for home advantage) do and they are objective.

Not sure why you keep banging this drum. The rankings are based on factual evidence, but they are clearly flawed as any kind of predictive tool.

If England play a second string side against a Welsh first string, is that factored in to the subsequent rankings? No. Not to mention other even less quantifiable variables such weather, refereeing tendencies, the size of the crowd etc...

Well done on your run of good form and number one ranking. Only a fool would take them as gospel though.

 

[Johnny Storm]

They should make it that the team ranked number 1 in the world going into the WC should have the privilege of stepping aside and waiting for the other teams to play the competition and send a team through to the final who then plays the number 1 side.

This would save a lot of time/effort/injuries and since the world ranking is so correct and important we should do it right away, starting with this WC.

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

Interestingly, of the 16 games between Wales and England since 2010, Wales have won six, four of which came when they were ranked lower thank England. So you'd have had more luck predicting a Welsh victory by flipping a coin than using the rankings.

Across the broader set of games, the rankings are a marginally better indicator than chance, accurately predicting the result in 62.5% of anglo-welsh fixtures. It should, however, be noted that one would have achieved the exact same degree of predictive accuracy by simply assuming that England will win every time they play Wales, which requires far less effort and upsets far more Taffs. Huzza!

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I get your point Heiny. I was making a macro overview of the sport and how it can change. We are only in our sport going into our 9th World Cup compared to Wendyball's 21 so far. Of course the biggest point of difference is the physicality of Rugby compared to Wendyball And that will favour certain nations and genetic makeup of players it produces or can poach legally.

But sport does and can change and the evolve and it would be a sad indictment if by the 21st Rugby World Cup that the same 4 nations have
Won the RWC. I would hope more. France being the obvious one if they ever got their act together i.e. great new generation of players and playing at home.

It's that, but the professionalism and cash in the various countries is also a massive factor.

Although wendyball's far more global, in the 8 WCs since the RWCs started, only 8 teams have appeared in finals. More than rugby's 5 but not as many as you might have thought:

Winners: Fra 2, Ger 2, Brazil 2, Spa 1, Ita 1

Runners up: Arg 2, Ger 2, Ita, Hol, Fra, Cro,

You have to go back to 1966 to find an interloper from outside those eight countries. And every single final back to inception in 1930 has featured at least one of them.

It'll be more of the same old for the foreseeable. I'm not expecting a Tonga v Japan final any time soon.

 

[bushytop]

...one would have achieved the exact same degree of predictive accuracy by simply assuming that England will win every time they play Wales, which requires far less effort and upsets far more Taffs. Huzza!

I find it funny that you propose this as a hypothetical... surely this is how every Englishman actually feels going into every game against Wales.

 

[ncurd]

I find it funny that you propose this as a hypothetical... surely this is how every Englishman actually feels going into every game against Wales.

With that win ratio it's a wonder why you guys ever think you win