Rugby Championship: Argentina - Australia (06/10/2012)

[TRF_stormer2010]

With all those players missing, the Wallabies side will be more inexperienced, and have several players who have only just started their international careers.

Whilst Argentina have the likes of Roncero, Fernández Lobbe, Albacete, Carizza, Leguizamón, Agulla all of whom have been in the side for the all of Phelan's coaching stint.

The Pumas have the more experience.

To be honest, I think this is Argentina's to lose. If they can't beat an Australian side this depleted, they may be waiting a while to get a first victory in the tournament.

Any Tier 1 side would fancy their chances against this Australia side, Samoa and Scotland have beaten a similarly weakened side away from home, so Argentina at home should be able to as well.

I agree but ARg should still expect a tough game and stick to what has worked for them so far prior to the game against NZ last week; uncompromizing defense and work at the breakdown and playing for territory with their dominant set pieces. The opportunities will come.

Australia:

15 Mike Harris
14 Nick Cummins
13 Ben Tapuai
12 Pat McCabe
11 Digby Ioane
10 Kurtley Beale
9 Nick Phipps
8 Radike Samo
7 Michael Hooper
6 Sitaleki Timani
5 Nathan Sharpe (capt)
4 Kane Douglas
3 Ben Alexander
2 Tatafu Polota-Nau
1 James Slipper

Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Benn Robinson, 18 Dave Dennis, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Brett Sheehan, 22 Dominic Shipperley


I quite like it, giving all the injuries... I have faith on Cummins and Tapuai, especially for their enthusiasm, but about Timani at 6 I have some doubt, because he will front more Pumas' strenghts than the 2 backs, won't be easy for him but he can provide some physical presence at the bd, Dennis didn't play well in his last test.

A better team than I would have expected.

 

[psychic duck]

Santiago Phelan is staying true to his Kidney-esque selection style and has named an unchanged team.

This will be Roncero's last ever match by the way, I wonder whether he has a last big effort in him and help win some penalties off the Aussie scrum.

 

[TNT88]

Cummins is gonna get a hatrick, you heard it here first.

 

[Colombia]

Santiago Phelan is staying true to his Kidney-esque selection style and has named an unchanged team.

This will be Roncero's last ever match by the way, I wonder whether he has a last big effort in him and help win some penalties off the Aussie scrum.

Disappointing. A new goal-kicker was a must imo.

 

[Darwin]

A few interesting changes to the Aussie side. I'm not a big fan of Slipper, but Robinson hasn't been any better this season so it probably doesn't hurt to give Slipper a chance (though I expect the Aussie scrum to struggle). Timani at 6 is an interesting idea, but I'm not sure if it is a wise move. He is a massive guy, and playing 3 locks could help combat Argentina's likely forward dominance, but I'm not sure he is really familiar with the defensive requirements of a 6, and Argentina seems quite adept at attacking down the blindside.....

Great to see Tapuai starting. He is probably better suited to 12, but I'm sure he will do fine at 13, and McCabe and Tapuai can always switch around in attack depending on the the situation. I'm a bit surprised to see Shipperly relegated to the bench, as I think he has made a pretty good start to his test career. I actually think Cummins will do fine on the wing against Argentina - to me he is a bit limited as a wing as he probably lacks a bit of pace and elusiveness, but he is a big lad and never gives up (his nickname of 'the honey badger' is quite apt in my opinion). Personally I would have started Shipperly at fullback - I understand he has some experience in the position, and is solid under the high ball. In contrast Harris looked very shaky under he high ball when he played fullback for the Reds, which is not promising given the likely aerial bombardment he will receive from Argentina! I can understand having Harris in the team for his goal-kicking, but I'm not sure he is the right person to have at fullback versus Argentina - we will find out soon....

As for Argentina: No surprise to see no changes. I still think they need a better goal-kicker at test level - hopefully poor goal-kicking doesn't cost them the match...

 

[smartcooky]

The NZ TAB can't separate them.

They opened the book today paying $1.87 each way on the head-to-head

 

[madflyhalf]

I was asking myself the reasons behind Nick Cummins' nickname "Honey Badger", after a brief research on google I have some ideas

Is this the proof that humans has also honey badgers descendant?

 

[JG52Hummel]

And we may continue.

 

[psychic duck]

Rodrigo Roncero pictured as a teenager.

The 35 year old prop will play his last match of pro rugby this weekend after 55 caps during a 14 year career with the Pumas.

 

[Colombia]

Rodrigo Roncero pictured as a teenager.

The 35 year old prop will play his last match of pro rugby this weekend after 55 caps during a 14 year career with the Pumas.

Looks like a porky Pichot

What a test player he has been and to have his best (?) test season at 35? maybe he should play on.

 

[psychic duck]

Looks like a porky Pichot

What a test player he has been and to have his best (?) test season at 35? maybe he should play on.

This hasn't been his best test season. That was in the 2007 World Cup.

To be honest, I feel a lot of the praise given to Roncero this tournament has been just because he is an Argentine who is well known to the English speaking media so they mention his name more, rave over a tackle, and give him the credit for scrums. Whilst a player like Figallo (who has been good) gets ignored by them. I'm not saying Roncero hasn't been very good, because he has, but he hasn't been perfect and the media is also giving him an easy time and ignoring some flaws such as high penalty count (although to be fair this is reduced on what he was conceding in 2010/11) and fitness.

Roncero is still a good player, but for limited periods of time. Fatigue visibly shows after about 45 minutes in each match, in the last match he got in the way of backline moves on more than one occasion.

I would have started Ayerza for this tournament to be honest. He is as good as Roncero now, but younger, and has better stamina, and will be available for the Pumas for the next few seasons including the 2015 World Cup.

Roncero's retirement marks an end of an era for a golden age of Argentine front rowers. Roberto Grau, Mauricio Reggiardo, Omar Hasan, Martín Scelzo, Mario Ledesma, Federico Méndez and Rodrigo Roncero all in the same generation. Such depth of front rowers around at the same time is remarkable, and no other nations could say they have 7 front rowers of such high quality available all at the same time at one point.

The front row factory in Argentina has actually dried up now. Ayerza and Figallo are good first choice front rowers, but the depth of front rowers available is much reduced. Other than those two mentioned, Argentine front rowers who were born in the 1980's have largely flattered to deceive.

Juan Pablo Orlandi is not up to top international standard (New Zealand started getting on top of the scrum as soon as he came on in the Wellington match), Francisco Gómez Kodela isn't that great and struggled immensely in the June matches against Italy and France. Maximiliano Bustos is decent scrummaging wise (which is why I think he should be in the squad ahead of Orlandi or Gómez Kodela), but has other issues he needs to sort out which is mainly his ridiculously high penalty count.

Other props born in the 1980's who have been previously tried by Argentina such as Juan Gómez (who is crap), Pedro Ledesma and Pablo Henn have also disappeared without making an impression.

Whilst at hooker, Creevy is the future for sure but despite being immense around the field still struggles with lineouts, and other than him the choice is bare. Guiñazu is a poor player but to be fair he has upped his game for this tournament, but still is hardly an amazing hooker. Other than those two, the cupboard is bare for hookers, you have to look into Pro D2 to find another Argentine hooker playing professionally in Europe. Whilst Postiglioni's progress of converting from prop to hooker is being slowed by coaches constantly changing his position (he played loosehead, hooker, tighthead and even lock last year in Argentina), he didn't throw into the lineout in June despite playing hooker.

Curiously, the current crop of Argentine hookers aren't natural hookers at all. They've all been converted. Creevy was a flanker, whilst Guiñazu and Postiglioni were both props. So all Argentina's hookers in their squad started their top level careers in a different position. Why aren't more hookers being produced from junior level?

 

[Darwin]

This should be a very interesting match. Argentina obviously has a big advantage in the tight-five. I expect they will dominate in the scrum, and put a bit of pressure on the Aussie lineout. The loose-forward battle will be interesting, but Argentina probably have a slight edge here too. Hooper is the best pure openside on display (by far), but that is probably the only advantage Australia have. Timani has impressed at lock this season, but has little (or no) experience at 6, and while Samo is exceptional.....for a 85-year old man. However if Australia had any half decent 8's available he wouldn't even be in the Aussie squad. In contrast Argentina have a very strong trio. Farias Cabello is not the most dynamic player flanker but has been hard-working and reliable all tournament, while Leguizamon is a multi-skilled player even if he isn't really a 'traditional' openside flanker. Fernadez Lobbe has been exceptional all tournament, and is clearly one of the best number 8's on the planet. Overall Argentina have easily the better forward pack, with the only area I can see Australia having an edge is at the breakdown through the individual brilliance of Hooper (and Gill when he comes on).

I give Argentina a slight edge in the halves, but not by much. Landajo really impressed with his running game last weekend, while the best thing I can say about Phipps is that he is pretty solid. Hernandez vs Beale will be one of the more interesting individual battles in my opinion. Hernnadez has been pretty good this tournament - his general play kicking is pretty accurate, and he is has been generally rock solid on defense. I still think he needs to take the line on much more with ball in hand, as he has the size and pace to cause opposition teams a lot of problems, and this would prevent the opposition drifting wide early and shutting down space. Beale has been horrible at fullback this year, but looked far better at 10 last week. I think he is a key for Australia - they need to work out a way to get the ball wide to exploit Argentina's narrow defense, so we may see him throwing the odd skip pass to get the ball out there quickly.

Argentina's midfield has been pretty reliable (particularly on defense) this year but haven't really been a threat with ball in hand, and I can't see that changing against Australia's solid midfield defense. Though the Aussie midfield isn't that creative I feel this is an area they will look to attack Argentina. If Beale takes it to the line and has McCabe/Tapuai running off his shoulder they could be quite dangerous, as Argentina's defense is really designed to shut down attacks moving across the field, rather than hard direct runners (something the AB's exploited last week). Outwide I think see both teams pretty evenly matched. Ioane hasn't had many chances this tournament, but I think he is better than Camacho, who has been very reliable but lacks a bit of spark in my opinion. On the other wing we see Cummins versus Agulla, and I think they are pretty evenly matched. I think Argentina has the edge at fullback though. Amorosino has some great pace and elusive skills, while Harris is really a 12 (or 10) who has never looked that comfortable at 15 in my opinion. I'm sure Harris will be tested under the high ball a bit, and I do worry that his lack of pace at fullback could be an issue (the fact he is a 80% + goal-kicker is a big bonus though).

Overall I think it will be quite a close game. Argentina are at home and have an obvious advantage in the forwards, while Australia have a slight advantage in the backs, and a much better goal-kicker. I think the result of this game will really depend on the game-plan that Argentina adopt though. If Argentina play the more conservative game-plan they used in their first 4 matches based around forward dominance and field position I think they will win. They will overpower the Aussie forwards and maul them to death, and win a relatively low scoring game. If however they use the expansive style they played against the AB's I think they will be playing right into Australia's hands. They would probably score 2-3 good tries (as they did versus the AB's), but expansive rugby has its own risks, so I think Australia would score at least as many tries, and this sort of rugby would negate Argentina's advantage in the forwards. I'm picking Argentina by 5, but it is really a 50:50 call for me.

 

[james5000]

My 2 cents, I'm tipping an Aussie win by 6 points.

I think this match will be won by the team that wins the battle of the collision's.

I personally think the Aussie pack is underrated in this game. They may not dominate in the scrum but I think they will win their own ball. I also believe the Aussie line out is at least par with Argentinian's. If you look at the Aussie pack they are all good ball runners and they all hit hard in defence. They may lack a bit in overall mobility but if they hunt as a pack they can win the ruck battle.

I feel like Aussie should actually try to beat the Argentinians at their own. Try to out passion them. Play percentage football, keeping it tight in their own half and kick for territory. Aussie may have an understrength back line but they still have the cutting edge that can put points on the board.

I rate Ioane the best winger in the world, he's got speed, footwork and strength and with ball in hand he will score points. Beale is one of the most dangerous back's in world rugby and McCabe and Tapuai can get over the advantage line.

Argentina has to defend well for the full 80 minutes because they don't have the attacking ability to score enough tries at this level of rugby. I can still see them winning but they will have to kick their penalties.

I predicted Argentina will take 5 years to get a win in the Rugby Championship and if they don't win this one I'm still extremely confident in my prediction lol. This is the weakest Aussie team since the 90's I reckon.

 

[.me]

Hoping Australia lose, so that Deans can get sacked. With the Australian team as it is, Agentina should be able to pull it off (judging by how they played on the Gold Coast).

 

[petite]

This hasn't been his best test season. That was in the 2007 World Cup.

To be honest, I feel a lot of the praise given to Roncero this tournament has been just because he is an Argentine who is well known to the English speaking media so they mention his name more, rave over a tackle, and give him the credit for scrums. Whilst a player like Figallo (who has been good) gets ignored by them. I'm not saying Roncero hasn't been very good, because he has, but he hasn't been perfect and the media is also giving him an easy time and ignoring some flaws such as high penalty count (although to be fair this is reduced on what he was conceding in 2010/11) and fitness.

Roncero is still a good player, but for limited periods of time. Fatigue visibly shows after about 45 minutes in each match, in the last match he got in the way of backline moves on more than one occasion.

I would have started Ayerza for this tournament to be honest. He is as good as Roncero now, but younger, and has better stamina, and will be available for the Pumas for the next few seasons including the 2015 World Cup.

Roncero's retirement marks an end of an era for a golden age of Argentine front rowers. Roberto Grau, Mauricio Reggiardo, Omar Hasan, Martín Scelzo, Mario Ledesma, Federico Méndez and Rodrigo Roncero all in the same generation. Such depth of front rowers around at the same time is remarkable, and no other nations could say they have 7 front rowers of such high quality available all at the same time at one point.

The front row factory in Argentina has actually dried up now. Ayerza and Figallo are good first choice front rowers, but the depth of front rowers available is much reduced. Other than those two mentioned, Argentine front rowers who were born in the 1980's have largely flattered to deceive.

Juan Pablo Orlandi is not up to top international standard (New Zealand started getting on top of the scrum as soon as he came on in the Wellington match), Francisco Gómez Kodela isn't that great and struggled immensely in the June matches against Italy and France. Maximiliano Bustos is decent scrummaging wise (which is why I think he should be in the squad ahead of Orlandi or Gómez Kodela), but has other issues he needs to sort out which is mainly his ridiculously high penalty count.

Other props born in the 1980's who have been previously tried by Argentina such as Juan Gómez (who is crap), Pedro Ledesma and Pablo Henn have also disappeared without making an impression.

Whilst at hooker, Creevy is the future for sure but despite being immense around the field still struggles with lineouts, and other than him the choice is bare. Guiñazu is a poor player but to be fair he has upped his game for this tournament, but still is hardly an amazing hooker. Other than those two, the cupboard is bare for hookers, you have to look into Pro D2 to find another Argentine hooker playing professionally in Europe. Whilst Postiglioni's progress of converting from prop to hooker is being slowed by coaches constantly changing his position (he played loosehead, hooker, tighthead and even lock last year in Argentina), he didn't throw into the lineout in June despite playing hooker.

Curiously, the current crop of Argentine hookers aren't natural hookers at all. They've all been converted. Creevy was a flanker, whilst Guiñazu and Postiglioni were both props. So all Argentina's hookers in their squad started their top level careers in a different position. Why aren't more hookers being produced from junior level?

very interesting point of view. agree completely i would give some more credit to guiñazu dow. i read he may go to super rugby can`t remember what team.

 

[tenpm]

Like many others, I want Argentina to win, but I have a feeling Australia is going to get this one, even though they're away from home and suffering from a long list of injuries.
Throughout the tournament Argentina hasn't been able to finish off their good performances, and I think they need more experience in this competition to learn how to win these close matches.

 

[psychic duck]

Australia's attack play analysed on the Rugby Club. They say they have become more predictable and less inventive this year in attack.

 

[Draggs]

The Aussie backs were dynamite in 2010.
I don't think it was so much to do with a game plan, but having exceptional players on form (O'Connor, Mitchell, Beale).
That back three playing later is wildly unpredictable.
Has Harris ever started at fullback?

 

[LittleGuy]

Oddly I'm getting the English commentary here in Canada and not the Australian one, somewhat dissapointing, oh well.

 

[Draggs]

Oddly I'm getting the English commentary here in Canada and not the Australian one, somewhat dissapointing, oh well.

Same here. I'd rather Fox, purely for comedy value.
Supersport running the English commentary.