Potential Squads for RWC 2015

[Darwin]

AB's

1, Tony Woodcock, Toby Smith
2, Hika Elliot, McDonald? Other? I think options will present themselves next year. hard to see either Hore or Mealamu making it
3, O. Franks, Tameafuna
4, Retalick, Boric
5, Whitelock, Romano
6, McCaw, Messam at some stage he just has to move.
7, Cane, L. Braid, Todd fantastic depth to take over from McCaw, I think Luke Braid will be bell suited to test rugby.
8, Read, Vito
9, Smith, Perenara, Barlow, heaps of talent. Elis and Leonard also in great form.
10, Carter, Barrett
11, Kahui, Savea
12, Crotty, Nonu, Could even see Carter here, I think another option will present itself at some stage
13, Smith, Elison, If Fruen can inprove his defense he will be a huge asset. But he has a big step to make to go from pretty average to defensive leader like Smith or Kahui
14, jane + lots of options
15, Dagg, Ben Smith, Taylor

So much depth in NZ right now, just missing a link at hooker and a clear option to play 12 as well as nonu.

Have you missed the Chiefs season, and the first 23 minutes of the 3rd Ireland test?

 

[Draggs]

Didn't realise Read was 26.
He looks like 30/31.

 

[Shovenose]

Props: WP Nel, Coenie Oosthuizen, Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Dale Chadwick, Dean Greyling

Hookers: Adriaan Strauss, Mahlatse Ralepelle, Deon Fourie, Bismarck du Plessis

Locks: Juandre Kruger, Eben Etzebeth, Anton Bresler, Rynhardt Elstadt, Peet Marais

Loosies: Duane Vermeulen, Marcell Coetzee, Siyamthanda Kolisi, CJ Stander, Nick Koster, Heinrich Brussow, Philip van der Walt, Joshua Strauss, Derick Minnie, Keegan Daniel, Jacques Potgieter, Lappies Labuschagne, Arno Botha, Nizaam Carr

Scrumhalves: Francois Hougaard, Sarel Pretorius, Tian Meyer, Dewaldt Duvenage

Outhalves: Johan Goosen, Handre Pollard, Elton Jantjies, Sias Ebersohn, Demetri Catrakilis. Patrick Lambie

Centres: Jan Serfontein, Johann Sadie, Robert Ebersohn, , Juan de Jongh, Dries Swanepoel, William Small- Smith, Francois Venter, Francois Steyn, JJ Engelbrecht, Tim Whitehead, Heimar Williams

Back 3: Gerhard van den Heever, Louis Ludik, JP Pietersen, Willie Le Roux, Jesse Kriel, Bjorn Basson, JP du Plessis, Tim Swiel, Jaco Taute, Lwazi Mvovo

Looking forward to a backline looking like this

Goosen, Le Roux,, Serfontein, Swanepoel, Engelbrecht, Taute

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

All Blacks

Prop - Franks, Faumauina, Afeaki, Smith
Hooker - Elliot, Mealamu/Hore
Lock - Whitelock, Romano, Retalick, Boric
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Cane, Messam, Shields
Halfback - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Carter, Smith, Nonu, Kahui
Outside Back - Savea, Guildford, Piatau, Smith

Add another hooker and an outside back.

 

[Shovenose]

All Blacks

Prop - Franks, Faumauina, Afeaki, Smith
Hooker - Elliot, Mealamu/Hore
Lock - Whitelock, Romano, Retalick, Boric
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Cane, Messam, Shields
Halfback - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Carter, Smith, Nonu, Kahui
Outside Back - Savea, Guildford, Piatau, Smith

Add another hooker and an outside back.

haha I bet it took you less than 5 minutes to make that list. How old is Nonu btw?

 

[Darwin]

All Blacks

Prop - Franks, Faumauina, Afeaki, Smith
Hooker - Elliot, Mealamu/Hore
Lock - Whitelock, Romano, Retalick, Boric
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Cane, Messam, Shields
Halfback - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Carter, Smith, Nonu, Kahui
Outside Back - Savea, Guildford, Piatau, Smith

Add another hooker and an outside back.

That looks a pretty good list to me (I'd probably change Messam for Vito/Braid/Todd....)! There will obviously be a few news names that come through over the next few years, but I think you have identified what will likely be the core of the team.....

haha I bet it took you less than 5 minutes to make that list. How old is Nonu btw?

Nonu is 30. He will be 33 by the next RWC, and I see no reason why he won't still be in the All Blacks then....

 

[Shovenose]

That looks a pretty good list to me (I'd probably change Messam for Vito/Braid/Todd....)! There will obviously be a few news names that come through over the next few years, but I think you have identified what will likely be the core of the team.....



Nonu is 30. He will be 33 by the next RWC, and I see no reason why he won't still be in the All Blacks then....

Don't think NZ will bother with a 33 year old.

 

[Darwin]

Don't think NZ will bother with a 33 year old.

We had a 33 year old and a 36 year old at the last Rugby World cup

 

[Shovenose]

We had a 33 year old and a 36 year old at the last Rugby World cup

Yeah you were thin in the lock department then.

 

[Darwin]

Yeah you were thin in the lock department then.

Almost as thin as South Africa, whose locks were 31, 32, 33, and 34

You do realize that every single team at last years RWC had a player who was 33 or older? Contrary to popular belief, players don't suddenly become useless the day they hit 33

 

[nickdnz]

I'd also imagin Daniel Carter will still be at 1st 5/8th. Yes the others are very talented but I can't see Carter not being there and probably starting. He'd have to have a big dip in form within the next few years. I'd be interested to see if Mealamu and Hore are both there, they'll be 36 years old which while Thorn showed that's not the worst thing, I think they are both starting to show signs of slowing down a bit. That being said, no one outstanding has really come through.

I can't see Piatau being in there either (not all that convinced by him despite his last game being a very good one). Maybe Hosea Gear will make it till then (he'll be 31 with Jane being 32). I also wouldn't be suprised to see Sean Maitland or Andre Taylor be in there (both will only be 26/27).

Yeah you were thin in the lock department then.

I think you'd fine that many people rated Brad Thorn as the best lock in the world, some people probably still do at 37 years old.

 

[Shovenose]

Almost as thin as South Africa, whose locks were 31, 32, 33, and 34

You do realize that every single team at last years RWC had a player who was 33 or older. Contrary to popular belief, players don't suddenly become useless the day they hit 33

Yeah and look how far they got.All of them were 31 except Matfield who were 34. Nonu already slowed down from wing to centre. Take another 3 years of his pace and the thought that they are already resting him in some games.

I think you'd fine that many people rated Brad Thorn as the best lock in the world, some people probably still do at 37 years old.

Enforcer you mean

 

[Darwin]

Yeah and look how far they got.All of them were 31 except Matfield who were 34. Nonu already slowed down from wing to centre. Take another 3 years of his pace and the thought that they are already resting him in some games.

Wrong. At the end of the Rugby World Cup:
Muller was 31
Botha was 32 (he was 31 at the start of the RWC)
Rossouw was 33

Nonu has always been a midfield back. He may have played a couple of games on the wing a few years ago, but that doesn't mean he ever was a wing. Nonu was rested for the Ireland test as he had been playing rugby almost constantly for 18 months without a break, not because he was 'getting old'.

Enforcer you mean

No, I'm pretty sure he meant lock.

 

[Shovenose]

Wrong. At the end of the Rugby World Cup:
Muller was 31
Botha was 32 (he was 31 at the start of the RWC)
Rossouw was 33

Nonu has always been a midfield back. He may have played a couple of games on the wing a few years ago, but that doesn't mean he ever was a wing. Nonu was rested for the Ireland test as he had been playing rugby almost constantly for 18 months without a break, not because he was 'getting old'.


No, I'm pretty sure he meant lock.

Wrong? A couple of months is not a "Wrong". Its not 3 years. Botha played one and half a game. Other oldies were subbed off regularly. Nonu started off on the wing and then came into OC and IC. But him not being good enough at 33 in 2015 is my opinion. Yours is that he would be still good enough. Neither of us is wrong as none of us can predict the future. But with Kahui, Ellison and a maybe SBW in the ranks its hard for him to be anything than a experience bench warmer in that tournament.

And yes I know he said lock but we know what he was used for. Enforcer

 

[nickdnz]

Wrong? A couple of months is not a "Wrong". Its not 3 years. Botha played one and half a game. Other oldies were subbed off regularly. Nonu started off on the wing and then came into OC and IC. But him not being good enough at 33 in 2015 is my opinion. Yours is that he would be still good enough. Neither of us is wrong as none of us can predict the future. But with Kahui, Ellison and a maybe SBW in the ranks its hard for him to be anything than a experience bench warmer in that tournament.

And yes I know he said lock but we know what he was used for. Enforcer

No. No he didn't.

He made his debut for the All Blacks in 2003, playing against England, Italy, Tonga, Canada all at centre. He moved to inside centre around 2008. He played at wing for a few seasons for the Hurricanes to accomidate the captain Tana Umaga and Conrad Smith, however he's didn't start his career at centre and it's never been his preferred position.

 

[Shovenose]

No. No he didn't.

He made his debut for the All Blacks in 2003, playing against England, Italy, Tonga, Canada all at centre. He moved to inside centre around 2008. He played at wing for a few seasons for the Hurricanes to accomidate the captain Tana Umaga and Conrad Smith, however he's didn't start his career at centre and it's never been his preferred position.

Dunno but against Italy he was on the bench. Against Tonga he was on the bench. Only in 2008 did he start to feature regularly for NZ at centre. Did Umaga move to centre to accommodate Nonu in the team?

 

[nickdnz]

Dunno but against Italy he was on the bench. Against Tonga he was on the bench. Only in 2008 did he start to feature regularly for NZ at centre. Did Umaga move to centre to accommodate Nonu in the team?

You've lost me. The point was that his prefered position has never been in the outside backs (and he wasn't a regular first team starter till 2008 for the All Blacks). Tana Umaga made the move to centre from the wing at the end of 2000 (during the November internationals, three years before Nonu made his debut for the All Blacks). If you look at every test Nonu has played:

2003
Jun 14 v England at Wellington 13-15 - Centre
Oct 11 v Italy at Melbourne 70-7 (+) - Centre
Oct 17 v Canada at Melbourne 68-6 - Centre
Oct 24 v Tonga at Brisbane 91-7 (+) - Centre
2004
Nov 13 v Italy at Rome 59-10 (+) - Right Wing
Nov 20 v Wales at Cardiff 26-25 (+) - Inside Centre
Nov 27 v France at Paris 45-6 (+) - Right Wing
2005
Jul 2 v British & Irish Lions at Wellington 48-18 (+) - Left Wing
Nov 5 v Wales at Cardiff 41-3 (+) - Right Wing
Nov 12 v Ireland at Dublin 45-7 - Centre
Nov 26 v Scotland at Edinburgh 29-10 (+) - Centre
2006
Jun 10 v Ireland at Hamilton 34-23 - Centre
Nov 6 v England at London 41-20 - Centre
Nov 12 v France at Lyon 47-3 (+) - Inside Centre
Nov 19 v France at Paris 23-11 - Inside Centre
Nov 26 v Wales at Cardiff 45-10 (+) - Left Wing
2007
2 Jun v France at Auckland 42-11 (+) - Left Wing
9 Jun v France at Wellington 61-10 (+) - Centre
2008
7 June v Ireland at Wellington 21-11 - Inside Centre
14 June v England at Auckland 37-20 - Inside Centre
21 June v England at Christchurch 44-12 - Inside Centre
5 July v South Africa at Wellington 19-8 - Inside Centre
12 July v South Africa at Dunedin 28-30 - Inside Centre
26 July v Australia at Sydney 19-34 (-) - Inside Centre
2 Aug v Australia at Auckland 39-10 - Inside Centre
17 Aug v South Africa at Capetown 19-0 - Inside Centre
3 Sept v Samoa at New Plymouth 101-14 - Inside Centre
13 Sept v Australia at Brisbane 28-24 (-) - Inside Centre
1 Nov v Australia at Hong Kong 19-14 (+) - Inside Centre
9 Nov v Scotland at Edinburgh 32-6 - Inside Centre
16 Nov v Ireland at Dublin 22-3 - Inside Centre
23 Nov v Wales at Cardiff 29-9 - Inside Centre
30 Nov v England at London 32-6 - Inside Centre
2009
13 June v France at Dunedin 22-27 - Inside Centre
20 June v France at Wellington 14-10 - Inside Centre
27 June v Italy at Christchurch 27-6 - Inside Centre
18 July v Australia at Auckland 22-16 - Inside Centre
26 July v South Africa at Bloemfontain 19-28 - Inside Centre
2 Aug v South Africa at Durban 19-31 - Inside Centre
22 Aug v Australia at Sydney 19-18 (+) - Centre
12 Sept v South Africa at Hamilton 29-32 - Centre
19 Sept v Australia at Wellington 33-6 - Inside Centre
31 Oct v Australia at Tokyo 32-19 - Inside Centre
8 Nov v Wales at Cardiff 19-12 - Inside Centre
22 Nov v England at London 19-6 - Inside Centre
29 Nov v France at Marseilles 39-12 (-) - Inside Centre
2010
10 July v South Africa at Auckland 32-12 - Inside Centre
17 July v South Africa at Wellington 31-17 (-) - Inside Centre
31 July v Australia at Melbourne 49-28 (-) - Inside Centre
7 Aug v Australia at Christchurch 20-10 - Inside Centre
22 Aug v South Africa at Johannesburg 29-22 - Inside Centre
11 Sept v Australia at Sydney 23-22 - Inside Centre
30 Oct v Australia at Hong Kong 24-26 - Inside Centre
07 Nov v England at London 26-16 - Inside Centre
21 Nov vs Ireland at Dublin 38-18 (-) - Inside Centre
28 Nov vs Wales at Cardiff 37-25 (+) - Inside Centre
2011
22 July v Fiji at Dunedin 60-14 - Inside Centre
30 July v South Africa at Wellington 40-7 (-) - Inside Centre
6 Aug v Australia at Auckland 30-14 (-) - Inside Centre
27 Aug v Australia at Brisbane 20-25 (-) - Inside Centre
9 Sept v Tonga (RWC) at Auckland 41-10 - Centre
16 Sept v Japan (RWC) at Hamilton 83-7 - Inside Centre
24 Sept v France (RWC) at Auckland 37-17 - Inside Centre
10 Oct v Argentina (RWC) at Auckland 33-10 - Inside Centre
16 Oct v Australia (RWC) at Auckland 20-6 (-) - Inside Centre
23 Oct v France (RWC final) at Auckland 8-7 (-) Inside Centre

(-) means substituted off
(+) means substiruted on

http://stats.allblacks.com/asp/tourbreak.asp?IDID=183

There, I've made it easy for you to understand. As you can see, Ma'a Nonu has only played six times for the All Blacks on the wing since his career began and all of them have been him coming off the bench. He's never started on the wing for the All Blacks. The reason why he has been used there is because Tana Umaga and Conrad Smith have been the two first choice centres for most of his career and before 2008 Daniel Carter, Aaron Mauger and Luke McAlister were often preferred at inside centre, so many of his apparences had to come from the bench (thus why he occasionally played on the wing)

For the Hurricanes it was much of the same. Tana Umaga moved to inside centre as he was starting to slow down a little to make way for Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu (who at the time was primarily a centre). Because you can't have two players playing centre, Nonu was put on the wing as he was a more capable winger than Smith. When Umaga eventually left after the 2006 Super 14 season Ma'a Nonu was moved to Inside Centre.

This reply took too much time.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Can we get back to Brad Thorn?

 

[Peat]

Can we get back to Brad Thorn?

No.

...

Oh, go on then.

Speaking of the Thorn-meister, I'm slightly surprised we haven't seen a trend for Tighthead locks of the highest calibre being like golddust. After all, we all fete Tighthead Props for their significance - yet what use are they if they're not getting pushed and their opponent's are? Not to mention the work in the loose offered by a player like Thorn.

Anyway. 33 is not too old. It is however old. Personally, my chosen age limit for alarm is 32. That's a rough limit, as some players put miles on the clock quicker than others, some positions are less forgiving than some. And of course plenty of players go on after that age, long after it sometimes. But I'd say it's around that age you needed to start worrying that accumulated wear and tear plus age will be significantly pulling down a player's performance, if they're going at all. Personally, I believe every coach, three years out, should be looking seriously at players that will be that age at that time and wondering a) Do I need them now b) Who would their replacement be.

Which, incidentally, having conducted some rough analysis when I should have been working, New Zealand lead the way on - but they're virtually all worth picking now. I would be a little ruthless in Hansen's shoes about picking Thompson though. Argentina and Italy both have upcoming problems too. Ireland probably have the worst backline issues along with New Zealand (this is all on paper, my analysis hasn't expanded much beyond this yet, although I'd consider it slightly worrying that the first choice 12s now both might have faded by then for NZ).

One of the reasons I'm not overly happy with Lancaster right now is he's propelled us into this position in the pack - we have 6 players in the current EPS who are doubtful to be there for 2015. And unlike the NZ squad, the vast majority of them are not vital.

 

[Feicarsinn]

No.

...

Oh, go on then.

Speaking of the Thorn-meister, I'm slightly surprised we haven't seen a trend for Tighthead locks of the highest calibre being like golddust. After all, we all fete Tighthead Props for their significance - yet what use are they if they're not getting pushed and their opponent's are? Not to mention the work in the loose offered by a player like Thorn.

The TH lock is certainly becoming something of a prized possession. We've certainly had a tough enough time finding any over the past two seasons. By all accounts the branch was looking for a top class international, yet the best they could do was Quinn Roux, a pretty much unheard of South African kid.