International teams tiers

[RedruthRFC]

1. New Zealand
2. Wales
3. Australia
4. South Africa
5 Argentina
6 Japan
7 Ireland
8 France
9 England.
10 Fiji
11 Georgia
12 Samoa
13 Scotland
14 Italy
15 Romania
16 Tonga
17 Canada
18 USA
19 Namibia
20 Uraguay

I know that you like a bet, if the following matches were played on neutral territory, under cover, between fully fit sides from both nations, how would you price the following matches?

Japan vs England
Wales vs Ireland
Georgia vs Scotland

That said, I'm not sure if I agree with the "if fully fit" caveat in principle - in reality, injuries are part of the game, teams with more versatile players and more strength in depth deal with them better, so rank higher. Equally you could argue that it is part of a union's job to do everything they can to turn up to important games with their players in good shape. Some unions seem better than others about this. I've said before that I think Wales' boot camp style training camps are a big risk, particularly with a lack of depth in some positions.

 

[ncurd]

Interesting choice of words. Me using actual stats is one-eyed, while a wild generalisation of 9/10 isn't. No bias there then.

Yeah but I proved his generalisation was accurate using 10-20 games and you have habit of throwing toys out the pram on anything that suggested bad about Scotland.

Your stats were rubbish and you know it.

 

[YoungScud]

Yeah but I proved his generalisation was accurate using 10-20 games and you have habit of throwing toys out the pram on anything that suggested bad about Scotland.

Your stats were rubbish and you know it.

Actually I don't. My stats are 100% accurate. They're a verifiable record of the games played between these two nations, all games. It's not throwing one's toys out of the pram to defend against what is essentially just opinion. We both know, despite claims of Scotland being 'lucky' to reach the quarters, that they, of all the NH nations performed the best in those games, and came closest to getting to the semis. Now, a little less hubris and a little more credit where it's due would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[McTallshort]

Yeah but I proved his generalisation was accurate using 10-20 games and you have habit of throwing toys out the pram on anything that suggested bad about Scotland.

Your stats were rubbish and you know it.

+1

 

[ncurd]

100% accurate and 100% useless in determining the likelihood of the result 10 times of a match 1 month ago.

Scotland will start the 6 nations second favourites for the wooden spoon and rightly so.

 

[McTallshort]

100% accurate and 100% useless in determining the likelihood of the result 10 times of a match 1 month ago.

Scotland will start the 6 nations second favourites for the wooden spoon and rightly so.

Leave him alone ncurd, replying to him only feeds his ego.

 

[ncurd]

Leave him alone ncurd, replying to him only feeds his ego.

I get frustrated when people use statistics badly to prove a point where they've proved nothing

 

[McTallshort]

I get frustrated when people use statistics badly to prove a point where they've proved nothing

I know but we all know he only comes on here to find offence with things, massive inferioritycomplex, probably never played the game.

 

[chippieolamus]

Italy will be favourites for the wooden spoon surely?

 

[ncurd]

Italy will be favourites for the wooden spoon surely?

I said second favourites

 

[The Jones Boy]

Actually I don't. My stats are 100% accurate. They're a verifiable record of the games played between these two nations, all games. It's not throwing one's toys out of the pram to defend against what is essentially just opinion. We both know, despite claims of Scotland being 'lucky' to reach the quarters, that they, of all the NH nations performed the best in those games, and came closest to getting to the semis. Now, a little less hubris and a little more credit where it's due would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath.

Scotland played out of their skin against a Wallaby team missing Pocock and Folau.
They were lucky to still be in contention at the end of the game and Mr Joubert had been very kind to them...
I wish Scotland well for the 6Nations because if they perform poorly chances are the finger will be pointed at them that they were not worthy of a semi final berth.

 

[YoungScud]

I know but we all know he only comes on here to find offence with things, massive inferioritycomplex, probably never played the game.

Yes, that would appear to be one of the more idiotic yet predictable retorts when trying to support the insupportible. "He probably never played the game." Well, you wwere almost right. I only played for about 38 years, so pretty much a greenhorn. You do seem to confuse debate with offence. The stats may not support the idea of Scotland beating Australia often, and I've never claimed that to be likely, but it was in response to a fairly idiotic post. It's interesting that those with weak arguments often feel the need to gather in groups and defend each other's position. As to Scotland starting as wooden spoon second favourites, how certain are you that will happen, given recent performances? I mean, after all, recent form appears to be the thrust of your argument.

Furthermore, since you're so fond of form, I will admit to taking exception to the almost hysterical rants about how lucky Scotland were to beat Japan recently. Care to share what real evidence there is for that? I've just (to **** you off a little more) looked at the stats (cue purple face). In five meeting, the total points scored (5 wins for Scotland) is Scotland 266 - 55 Japan, or an average of 53.2 - 11. Now, I don't know what criteria you'd use to suggest otherwise, but nobody with any sense really believed Japan should be favourites for that one, although they had managed to pip South Africa. The four days' rest argument is skimpy at best. Everyone except England and Ireland had to suffer that problem at some point, and it's worth bearing in mind that Scotland were in fact third, not second seeds in that group. It's not as if the score was close even. 45-9 is a bit of a doing. Then on to Australia in the quarter. A few of you couldn't even find it in your hearts to be magnanimous and admit that was a pretty good result for what you seem to think is a minor nation. Valley Commando might never sleep again because Stuart Hogg wasn't hanged, drawn and quartered and his head put on a spike on London Bridge. Talk about pettiness. It's hard to take when the best performing NH nation at the RWC is the one you all love to patronise, isn't it?

- - - Updated - - -

Scotland played out of their skin against a Wallaby team missing Pocock and Folau.
They were lucky to still be in contention at the end of the game and Mr Joubert had been very kind to them...
I wish Scotland well for the 6Nations because if they perform poorly chances are the finger will be pointed at them that they were not worthy of a semi final berth.

Not sure how that's relevant, since they didn't get one. Oh, and Mr Joubert was brilliant to us. We're thinking of offering him the keys to the country. I can't fully express my gratitude for his senseless carding of Maitland and his awarding of that penalty.

 

[ncurd]

As to Scotland starting as wooden spoon second favourites, how certain are you that will happen, given recent performances? I mean, after all, recent form appears to be the thrust of your argument

Performances against tier 1 opposition?
Last Beat Ireland: 2013
Last Beat England: 2008 (there was a draw in 2010)
Last Beat Wales: 2007
Last Beat France: 2006
Last Beat Italy: 2015

And the rugby championshiop nations:
Australia: 2012
New Zealand: NEVER
Argentina: 2014
South Africa: 2010

so you've managed to beat the worst SH team and the worst NH team and nobody else in recent years and don't think your second favourites for the wooden spoon? Win some top tier games first and I'll take Scotland seriously until then gallantly loosing all the time still makes you loosers. I feel for Scotland in the Aus game because it was the wrong call but only an idiot thinks Scotland were the better team in that match.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Oh for Gods sake man, sort your bloody English out.
Lose and Loser have a singular letter 'o', not two of the bloody things, that makes for a completely different word in each case.
Call yourself English and you cannot write the language properly.
I blame Tony Blair for this decline in English among the English.

 

[Tony Manx]

I blame Tony Blair for this decline in English among the English.

Hear hear!!!

 

[McTallshort]

Oh for Gods sake man, sort your bloody English out.
Lose and Loser have a singular letter 'o', not two of the bloody things, that makes for a completely different word in each case.
Call yourself English and you cannot write the language properly.
I blame Tony Blair for this decline in English among the English.

That's because he was a Jock.

 

[ncurd]

Oh for Gods sake man, sort your bloody English out.
Lose and Loser have a singular letter 'o', not two of the bloody things, that makes for a completely different word in each case.
Call yourself English and you cannot write the language properly.
I blame Tony Blair for this decline in English among the English.

I'm was already damaged goods in English by John Major and Thatcher before Blair got in.

In fact Blair is probably the reason why I have some appreciation for English as opposed to none.


I blame them all really nobody is radical enough on education system and tend to make minor alterations.

 

[BakkiesBokke]

I blame Tony Blair for this decline in English among the English.

Hahaha!!

I just looked up UK literacy rates, and according to the "Literacy Trust", between 1998 and 2008, literacy in the UK improved at the fastest rate it ever has (based on various measures). Not sure if it is true, but doesn't that overlap with almost all of Tony (let's start a war) Blair?

 

[Toko_11]

1 NZ
2 SA and Aussie
4 Ireland, Argentina, England, Scotland, France and Wales
10 Italy, Samoa, Fiji, Japan
14 Romania, Georgia, Tonga, Canada and the USA
19 Namibia
20 Uruguay

These are the 'bands' I had in mind in that results within these bands make no difference but wins between bands would be considered 'outside of expectation' (my own expectations of course).

I'd call the top 3 bands tier 1, the bottom 3 bands tier 2 and the middle band on the fringes.

Just to clear up a small mistake...

How can Georgia be below Japan, Samoa when we've beaten both handily. Italy won't play us for their lives, and we lost to fiji.

yes we also lost to Canada in pre RWC warm-ups but it was a preparation game not really focused on winning.. on actual test games Canada hasn't had a chance against us in years... Romania hasn't beaten us in about 6-7 years ? and we play every year.

Georgia is definitely on par with Italy, Samoa, Fiji and Japan atm. Slightly above Tonga.

 

[YoungScud]

That's because he was a Jock.

Jock my arse. He might have been born in Scotland (well Edinburgh, but that's kind of in Scotland) but he's spent the rest of his life assiuduously trying to avoid admitting it. Just as my son was born in London, but couldn't be more Scottish, you can have him with pleasure. Brown's not much better, but he does spend the odd ten minutes here.