How confident are you about your country in the World Cup?

[Ragey Erasmus]

Is Samson Lee really as good as some in Wales like to make out? Admittedly I didn't focus on him in the 6N but in the England game he didn't seem to really offer much trouble to the England pack.

 

[MrTea_32]

I'm confident England can win it, coming out the pool of death will.be a challenge but home advantage will be a big factor and the players will be hardened having played what really is knockout rugby against two world class sides, it's the Wales game I think will be the hardest.
A home world cup is a big advantage and also some big players coming back like Launchbury and hopefully Morgan and Manu will improve the squad if they find form but the big question is SL's selection choices especially at 12.
I think we'll win it

 

[dullonien]

Is Samson Lee really as good as some in Wales like to make out? Admittedly I didn't focus on him in the 6N but in the England game he didn't seem to really offer much trouble to the England pack.

He's not a world leading player yet, but for a 21/22 y/o he's mighty impressive Imo. He's the best scrummaging prop in Wales, and can hold his own against anyone. Give him a few years and he might/should develop into a tighthead that will be dominating all.

Along with Nicky Smith, we've potentially got a world class pair of props in a couple of seasons time, who will be available for Wales for a decade baring injury. Massively excited about both of them.

Neither are going to dominate decent opposition quite yet in the way that Adam Jones and co were a couple of seasons back for us, but they will cause some trouble and more importantly hold their own against all.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Won't make it past the Group stage.

 

[ncurd]

England I suspect will top the group, home advantage will prove enough vs Wales and Australia it won't be an easy ride by any stretch of the imagination and they'll probably be close games.

Wales I suspect will loose to Australia it's not about whether they can but they seam to have a real hoodoo against them and sorry but it's all mental now and they're more like to fix it in a game that doesn't matter. England have the same problem vs SA for whatever reason we can't seam to beat them.

I still say whilst I don't think it will happen Wales need watch out in not coming 4th, they'll have blown a gasket trying to beat England and only 5 days later they'll have to beat a fresh Fiji who will likely be targeting the game as their most likely game to cause an upset (and probably already lost to Aus and Eng). I still think Wales will win that match but it's huge banana skin looming for them even if they do beat England.

 

[Jbobo]

I'm confident up until the 79th minute.

This and this again!

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England I suspect will top the group, home advantage will prove enough vs Wales and Australia it won't be an easy ride by any stretch of the imagination and they'll probably be close games.

Wales I suspect will loose to Australia it's not about whether they can but they seam to have a real hoodoo against them and sorry but it's all mental now and they're more like to fix it in a game that doesn't matter. England have the same problem vs SA for whatever reason we can't seam to beat them.

I still say whilst I don't think it will happen Wales need watch out in not coming 4th, they'll have blown a gasket trying to beat England and only 5 days later they'll have to beat a fresh Fiji who will likely be targeting the game as their most likely game to cause an upset (and probably already lost to Aus and Eng). I still think Wales will win that match but it's huge banana skin looming for them even if they do beat England.

True on the first part, but then again, we also had a 'hoodoo' against SA, but we have gradually closed the gap and then eventually beat them at the end of last year. The same is happening with Australia, and we will beat them sooner or later. The world cup just might be the incentive to do it.

On the second point, i think you're massively underestimating Wales. If you think England will top the group and Wales have a chance of coming 4th, then i think that's laughable. We'll see, though.

 

[arry nordy key]

Because the build up time for a World Cup is so different to any other time in the rugby calendar, I think it is really hard to make predictions. I'd say this form of preparation will benefit every team, but most of all the Islanders, Scotland (still bedding in with Cotter & I think they will 'click' eventually), France and Georgia. So based on that it should tighten up the pack and make games more competitive. Other than that non-committal prediction, I think it is hard to be too bullish about an single team's chances.

 

[bw245]

When fully fit and fully charged, I would bet Wales to top the group. Samson Lee's absence (let's face it, even if he's fit come september, he won't be match fit) will be felt I think. England vs Wales will be interesting. England should dominate the scrum, so Wales will just have to exploit England's worrying defence.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

When fully fit and fully charged, I would bet Wales to top the group. Samson Lee's absence (let's face it, even if he's fit come september, he won't be match fit) will be felt I think. England vs Wales will be interesting. England should dominate the scrum, so Wales will just have to exploit England's worrying defence.

A fully fit and fully charged Wales lost to England at home and has lost to Australia repeatedly.

 

[valley commando]

A fully fit and fully charged Wales lost to England at home and has lost to Australia repeatedly.

The world cup is different, providing we get there with a fully fit squad we will be ready, Gats will have something up his sleeve, and with the likes of Liam Williams, Hallam Amos, Tyler Morgan, Nicky Smith, Liam Belcher and a fit again Eli Walker we will spring a surprise or two.
We will I'm confident beat either England or Oz and with the rub of the green maybe both of them.
Last World Cup we were given next to no chance by the bookies and the pundits, we should have beaten SA in the groups with a clear penalty not awarded which definitely went through the sticks, if Alain ****** Rowlands had just yellow carded Warbs which is what the offence merited we would have won our semi and anyone who watched the final will be aware that France were extremely unfortunate to loose.

 

[ncurd]

On the second point, i think you're massively underestimating Wales. If you think England will top the group and Wales have a chance of coming 4th, then i think that's laughable. We'll see, though.

I didn't say that, I think Wales will end up 3rd (and are unlucky to be this group plenty of other teams will go through that are less deserving than any of these 3).

However the Fiji game for Wales is your typical tournament underdogs that might throw up an unexpected result. Looking at the entire fixture list and the fact it doesn't give Wales time to fully recover from a hard fought match (anybody who picks up a ****le will have to be rested) it just seams the most likely match that will end in a 'giant killing' if theres going to be one.

Again I don't think it will happen Wales should comfortably win the match but it's the one I'd target to put a few bob on.

 

[valley commando]

I didn't say that, I think Wales will end up 3rd (and are unlucky to be this group plenty of other teams will go through that are less deserving than any of these 3).

However the Fiji game for Wales is your typical tournament underdogs that might throw up an unexpected result. Looking at the entire fixture list and the fact it doesn't give Wales time to fully recover from a hard fought match (anybody who picks up a ****le will have to be rested) it just seams the most likely match that will end in a 'giant killing' if theres going to be one.

Again I don't think it will happen Wales should comfortably win the match but it's the one I'd target to put a few bob on.

Equally you may well end up saying the same re England who may well not get out of the group

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

You need some luck and a few calls to go your way to win a RWC. SA has been pulling the short straw more often than not of late though that could only be my bias talking.

On to the actual team a lot of my confidence will depend on what Meyer would see as our 1st choice XV. The fact that there are so many positions where we are not sure who is the 1st choice player (in the coaches mnd) is a bit disconcerting for me (to be fair HM has had to make massive changes due to the raft of injuries we've been suffering the last ~2 years). In the same breath a few of those instances where we are unsure who would start is due our relative strength in some positions (Strauss or Du Plessis, Louw or Coetzee, Lambie or Pollard?). Then again, if anything past RWC's have shown that tight knit, established combinations tend to go further.

But I'll wait to see what sort of squad we end up with. There is as much t be positive about as there is to brood over for SA and there is still some time and injuries and form come and go deceptively quickly.

 

[TRF_heineken]

You need some luck and a few calls to go your way to win a RWC. SA has been pulling the short straw more often than not of late though that could only be my bias talking.

On to the actual team a lot of my confidence will depend on what Meyer would see as our 1st choice XV. The fact that there are so many positions where we are not sure who is the 1st choice player (in the coaches mnd) is a bit disconcerting for me (to be fair HM has had to make massive changes due to the raft of injuries we've been suffering the last ~2 years). In the same breath a few of those instances where we are unsure who would start is due our relative strength in some positions (Strauss or Du Plessis, Louw or Coetzee, Lambie or Pollard?). Then again, if anything past RWC's have shown that tight knit, established combinations tend to go further.

But I'll wait to see what sort of squad we end up with. There is as much t be positive about as there is to brood over for SA and there is still some time and injuries and form come and go deceptively quickly.

yup. The Springboks had their first pow-wow this week apart from the Sharks players, and about half of the guys who were at this get-together was on the injury list.

What is a positive for me is that HM is showing interest in new players in areas where I see some form of vulnerability. Tighthead prop for example. Yes Jannie, will be part of the 2nd group, but guys like Koch and Redelinghuys are good signs that it is not set in stone that the previous year's Boks will be necessarily be going to the World Cup.

 

[ncurd]

Equally you may well end up saying the same re England who may well not get out of the group

Yes and No



Looking it as a pure who plays who yes England have just as much chance to loose to Fiji as they do to Wales. However that's still looking at games in isolation which in a tournament is impossible.



What's more likely? Both teams start fully fit.

A fully fit England loosing the opening match of a home world cup?

Wales fully fit at the start of the tournament win their first two matches loosing a match 5 days later after playing their main rivals?

I think anyone with an unbiased view will say the second is more likely to happen. Although both are incredibly unlikely to happen.



Look at this way say the winner of the group goes into SA/NZ half of the draw.

Team A beats Team B in close fought affair by 1 point.

Team A has to beat SA & NZ to get to the final.

Team B only really has opposition from Ireland to get the final.

Who's more likely to win the final? Team B are probably fitter and know they can beat Team A. My money would be on Team B.



Games in a tournament can't be taken in isolation.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

The world cup is different, providing we get there with a fully fit squad we will be ready, Gats will have something up his sleeve, and with the likes of Liam Williams, Hallam Amos, Tyler Morgan, Nicky Smith, Liam Belcher and a fit again Eli Walker we will spring a surprise or two.
We will I'm confident beat either England or Oz and with the rub of the green maybe both of them.
Last World Cup we were given next to no chance by the bookies and the pundits, we should have beaten SA in the groups with a clear penalty not awarded which definitely went through the sticks, if Alain ****** Rowlands had just yellow carded Warbs which is what the offence merited we would have won our semi and anyone who watched the final will be aware that France were extremely unfortunate to loose.

You say that but didn't Gatland also have something up his sleeve for the last 2 England encounters that then never materialised? You forget that whilst Wales may be pumped up for a WC, England will be at home in their own world cup. It's highly unlikely Wales will get the rub of the green against England at home during a world cup, unless we had Walsh reffing. Recent form shows Wales losing to both England and Australia.

 

[valley commando]

Yes and No



Looking it as a pure who plays who yes England have just as much chance to loose to Fiji as they do to Wales. However that's still looking at games in isolation which in a tournament is impossible.



What's more likely? Both teams start fully fit.

A fully fit England loosing the opening match of a home world cup?

Wales fully fit at the start of the tournament win their first two matches loosing a match 5 days later after playing their main rivals?

I think anyone with an unbiased view will say the second is more likely to happen. Although both are incredibly unlikely to happen.



Look at this way say the winner of the group goes into SA/NZ half of the draw.

Team A beats Team B in close fought affair by 1 point.

Team A has to beat SA & NZ to get to the final.

Team B only really has opposition from Ireland to get the final.

Who's more likely to win the final? Team B are probably fitter and know they can beat Team A. My money would be on Team B.



Games in a tournament can't be taken in isolation.

So the smart move is to come 2nd in the grou ? Risky but then you put all your focus on beating just one of your 2 main rivals running the risk of lets say England bt Wales, Oz bt England and Wales bt Oz and they all win their other group games. If level on points the team having won a game against the other team go through, so still all square. Next you go to points for and against difference re the last 6 nations, I have a terrible feeling this may happen in our group. In turn this possibility means coaches wont be able to rest key players as points mean prizes.

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You say that but didn't Gatland also have something up his sleeve for the last 2 England encounters that then never materialised? You forget that whilst Wales may be pumped up for a WC, England will be at home in their own world cup. It's highly unlikely Wales will get the rub of the green against England at home during a world cup, unless we had Walsh reffing. Recent form shows Wales losing to both England and Australia.

Recent form goes out the window come WC just as it did last time, I think the difference will be the coaches and Gats is far cleverer than Lancaster. Neither would Gats leave Abendedon and Armitage out of the squad.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Recent form goes out the window come WC just as it did last time, I think the difference will be the coaches and Gats is far cleverer than Lancaster. Neither would Gats leave Abendedon and Armitage out of the squad.

Those aren't Lancasters rules, they are rules set out by the governing body of not selecting players based abroad. I've also seen little to suggest Gatland is that clever. Leaving North on after the head hits he took, retaining Cuthbert when he was off form, pulling stupid mind games when he should have known it would backfire and make him look like a pillock, frequent criticism of having no plan B. You think this will all suddenly vanish come the world cup?

I'd bet a fully fit English team at home could beat a fully fit Welsh team based on the fact that a partially fit English team have beaten fully fit Wales home and away with people making their debut 6N tournament in both games. Both wins have been quite convincing too, despite the scores. Remember part of the mind games had Gatland releasing his team because he knew exactly who was going to play due to it being their top team and they knew exactly what they were going to do. Remember how he made comments about how the English were undecided and didn't know how to beat the plan Wales had. It didn't turn out well and I think going into the WC with a similar attitude will get a similar result.

 

[ncurd]

That was a hypothetical situation winner of the group gets the easier draw in reality I was just trying to point out where in tournament you play a team has effect on your liklyhood to loose.

Also where was everyone was calling for Abendedon to play whilst he was at Bath? He hasn't gotten that much better since last season.

 

[dullonien]

Imo both England and Aus go into their matches against Wales as favourites due to recent results. However I do think wales are fully capable of winning both games and topping the pool. Historically Wales get better the more time they are together, more so than England and Aus seem to do. I think this is mainly because the players are undercooked entering the international camp from the regions. The English clubs and Aus franchises better prepare their players for international duty. Because of this I think the extra preparation time before the WC will benefit Wales more than England and Aus, and we'll see a performance from Wales in both games more comparable with those at the end of the 6 nations, than the lackluster one against England in the first game of the 6 nations.

Having a solid platform may still prove crucial against England though, that's what's really worrying me.