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Have we already found our top 8 teams?

TRF Mr Fish

TRF Mr Fish

Your Piscine Overlord
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With the Sharks win over the Jaguares making it very difficult for the Jaguares to make the top 8 (excepting a complete collapse from the Sharks), have we basically cemented our quartefinalists for this year's competition?

I'd say that at this point in time the Hurricanes, Crusaders, Lions, Chiefs, Stormers, Highlanders and Sharks are completely safe (that is to say, their season would have to take an unprecedented downwards spiral for them not to progress through). The only question remaining is which Australian team will make it through, though I'd wager that if the Brumbies win tonight then it's unlikely any of the other teams will catch them.
 
Sharks has yet to play Lions/Stormers. Jags may reach them..may.
 
FNS said:
Sharks has yet to play Lions/Stormers. Jags may reach them..may.
Click to expand...

Even if they lose both, there's no way we win all 6 games. We'll probably take another L to waratahs or maybe brumbies at home.

And regardless, we don't deserve and I don't want to qualify like that, beating only weak opponents...
 
OTOH, if the Blues win tonight, then is the last Australasian spot is also still in play?

The gap with 6 games to go will be 6 or 7 points between the Highlanders and Blues, and the Blues are probably in a slightly better position in the remaining games.

The games they each have against the Waratahs, Reds, and Cheetahs are probably a wash.
The Blues away to Stormers and Sunwolves is probably a wash with the Highlanders away to Bulls and Force.

But I reckon the Blues have a better opportunity at home against the Chiefs than the Highlanders away against the Crusaders.

Highlanders will still be favourites, but until round 14 (or tonight, if the Brumbies win) they only really have 4 points to spare. 3 if the Blues do well tonight.
IMO 5:1 says that 3-point margin will be enough, 2:1 says the Blues/Chiefs and Crusaders/Highlanders games don't help the Blues anyway. 19:1 says the Blues can't make up the gap without beating the Chiefs...

Ok, so EVEN IF the Blues take 5 points home tonight, the Highlanders are still about 10:1 favourites...

For the Highlanders not to progress, EITHER "their season would have to take an unprecedented* downwards spiral", OR the Blues' season would have to end on an incredible run of consistency.

* - Well, not really unprecedented, but still a downward spiral


I think there's also a good case for the people saying the Jaguares still have a chance to catch up to the Sharks, if the Jaguares have a consistent run.
 
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Can only see the current top 8 teams being in the finals really.

The blues have a glimmer of hope but it will depend on either the bulls pulling one out of the bag or the banana skin game against the force in Perth to really get the blues within reach.

Saying that if the Highlanders keep smashing teams with bonus points they'll be in there comfortably.
I'm sure the Highlanders are aware of the risk though.

Other than that it's just the Aussie team that may switch by the end of the season.
 
Its pretty clear now

basically a lock in
Crusaders
Chiefs
Hurricanes

the actual order these guys finish is going to be determined by some big games over the last few rounds. But they are so far ahead they surely cant lose their playoff spot to the blues or highladers, and even if they did they would still get the last wildcard as Aussie has been so poor.

its basically impossible for the last wildcard spot to be lost to Australia, the Tah's are 9 points behind the blues... That is a virtual canyon in a competition where playoff spots are usually decided by single points and F/A ratios....
highlanders 85%
Blues 15%

15% chance is probably kind to the blues considering the form the highlanders were in this weekend. The blues also dont have a game against the Highlanders in the final rounds which would allow them to make up significant ground or pass them on the table. They have to win games, get bonus points and hope the highlanders trip up a couple of times, drop a game on the road trip and then lose the big game against the Crusaders. meanwhile the blue will have to win an away game to the Tahs, a tricky single match in south aftica against the stormers and they have a game against the chiefs as well...

Brumbies are pretty much a lockin for the Aussie conference and they will definitely be the only Aussie team in the finals. 5 points and a game in hand compared to the Tah's. And all well off the pace compared to all the NZ teams.

Stormers are set to benefit from being in a weak pool yet again, they are likely going to be put our of the finals early.

Lions are again looking like the only team that can genuinely compete on a level with the NZ sides.

Lions will benefit by lack of competition to easily secure a home final without much of a fight while the fight for the home playoff in the NZ conference is set for a battle royal.

Shark win over the Jags pretty much seals them in that wildcard spot. Bulls are well out of contention.

On their results alone the the sharks look ok (6-2) but they haven't played a NZ team this year and wont have to unless they make the finals. I really dont understand how the draw is setup to allow this... Like the golden draw the stormers had last year...
 
Larksea said:
Brumbies are pretty much a lockin for the Aussie conference and they will definitely be the only Aussie team in the finals. 5 points and a game in hand compared to the Tah's.
Click to expand...

The Brumbies don't have a game in hand, the table is wrong. The Cheetahs should be on 9 games played (not 10) too. Only the Hurricanes, Force, Rebels and Bulls have had both byes already.


I'll also leave this composite merit table here (using the points the Lions/Sharks/Jaguares/Kings had after 10 rounds in 2016, when they didn't get to avoid NZ teams)

NZ Crusaders 41
NZ Chiefs 37
NZ Hurricanes 33*
NZ Highlanders 28
SA Lions 27
SA Stormers 26
NZ Blues 22 PD+39
SA Sharks 22 PD+18
AU Brumbies 18
SA Bulls 14*
AU Waratahs 13
AR Jaguares 12
AU Reds 11
SA Cheetahs 10
AU Force 9*
AU Rebels 7*
JP Sunwolves 6
SA Kings 4*

* - These teams have / had a game in hand.
 
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The big issue for the Blues under the current system is, they simply aren't good enough yet, to impose themselves on the other Kiwi teams.
If they were the Highlanders would be in trouble.
Then, they still have to answer questions about consistency on the road.
This is the first time in God knows how many seasons the Blues have looked like the planets are in alignment and they are genuinely improving. Still plenty of work to do but the Brumbies result away in Canberra must give the squad some confidence that they have the goods to go further they just have to dig deeper, play smarter and get a good first five.
 
Another table.

I took all the results from the 2016 regular season and 2017 season so far, the ELO methodology World Rugby uses, and ran Super Rugby ELO rankings.

All teams start on 30 points at the beginning of 2016, there is a handicap for home advantage but it doesn't apply when the Chiefs or Sunwolves host games in Fiji or Singapore (or when the Blues host a game in Samoa).
Bonus points have no effect, but as per WRR there is a 1.5x weighting when the winning margin is 15+.
I also ran a version including the 2016 finals with double weighting (like how WRR have double weighting at RWCs), but this version ignores the 2016 finals completely.

<img src="http://www.therugbyforum.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=5055&d=1493614984" alt="SR ELO Rankings 2017 week 10 v2" height="400" width="247">

SR ELO 2016 - 2017-05-01 v2.png
 
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that actually looks about right though I think the stormers not having to face NZ teams last year and the sharks the same this year will skew those figures a bit. From what I can tell the lions dont face NZ teams this year either... But the finals wins last year kinda vindicated them a bit though they had a huge advantage playing at home and lost convincingly when they came over to NZ for the final.

the Blues are something like 1 win from the last 11 games against NZ sides yet still sit 8th there obviously because they results against non-NZ sides are so strong...

The Chiefs have an amazing record against NZ sides yet tend to drop a game or two they are not expected too outside the conference each year...
 
Larksea said:
that actually looks about right though I think the stormers not having to face NZ teams last year and the sharks the same this year will skew those figures a bit. From what I can tell the lions dont face NZ teams this year either... But the finals wins last year kinda vindicated them a bit though they had a huge advantage playing at home and lost convincingly when they came over to NZ for the final.

the Blues are something like 1 win from the last 11 games against NZ sides yet still sit 8th there obviously because they results against non-NZ sides are so strong...

The Chiefs have an amazing record against NZ sides yet tend to drop a game or two they are not expected too outside the conference each year...
Click to expand...

Look at the table above Larksea.
this year, all the teams in SA1 conference play only NZ teams, and all the teams in SA2 conference play only Aussies

- - - Updated - - -

Brigantine said:
Another table.

I took all the results from the 2016 regular season and 2017 season so far, the ELO methodology World Rugby uses, and ran Super Rugby ELO rankings.

All teams start on 30 points at the beginning of 2016, there is a handicap for home advantage but it doesn't apply when the Chiefs or Sunwolves host games in Fiji or Singapore (or when the Blues host a game in Samoa).
Bonus points have no effect, but as per WRR there is a 1.5x weighting when the winning margin is 15+.
I also ran a version including the 2016 finals with double weighting (like how WRR have double weighting at RWCs), but this version ignores the 2016 finals completely.

attachment.php


attachment.php
Click to expand...

Kevin Lassen's Super Rugby ranking system at "Pick&Go" yields remarkably similar results... the same top 8 in a different order.




...
 
Ground We Won said:
Have the Blues even managed a win over an NZ side this season?
Click to expand...

Not even one.
Some games mighty close, other games a wash out.
They are a little disappointing but... they look like they are really trying to turn a corner.
It's not difficult to say this is their best season so far since ... it feels like forever, and theres a fair bit of rugby to be played yet but that result against the Brumbies away in Canberra must give them heart. In the squad and in the mangement. It's still a lottery to see how they will perform for the rest of the season but I'm still cautiously hopeful that performances will improve slightly.
 

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