End of season run in

[Scotty]

With just 3 to 4 games left of the regular season i thought i would make this thread, maybe abit early but with teams as low as 9th able to make top 4 i thought it was relevant.

I am gutted to not see Wasps or Worcester in the mix but this has been a very entertaining season, Sarries and Sale' early dominance ment that there was a battle from 3rd to 9th for that play off spot. Teams can be 3rd 1 week and 9th the next, happened to Chiefs in the bye week.

Make your predictions and have your say.

From a Chiefs point of view its all in our hands with Bath plus 3 '10 point games' vs Tigers Bristol and Lirish. So we need a strong end to the seasons

English Premiership: Who will finish in top four play-off spots? - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/64990230

 

[TRF_Olyy]

1. Saracens
2. Sale
3. Leicester
4. Exeter

Is my guess, though if Saints win tomorrow then them vs Chiefs will be a very interesting battle

We've got a tough run in as well, with Bristol finding form, Gloucester looking good and Newcastle always a bogey side for us - 2nd place not sealed despite that gap

 

[Scotty]

1. Saracens
2. Sale
3. Leicester
4. Exeter

Is my guess, though if Saints win tomorrow then them vs Chiefs will be a very interesting battle

We've got a tough run in as well, with Bristol finding form, Gloucester looking good and Newcastle always a bogey side for us - 2nd place not sealed despite that gap

Ive got the same 4 as you and would go that order, yet i agree Saints couldsmash it or crash and burn.

Yet if Chiefs beat tigers then Tigers and have a game in hand it could be that Tigers drop out to Saints. Bit far for Gloucester but even Quins have a shot its a crazy season.

At worst you lose your home Semi but if we get in the top 4 i hope we have you in the SF.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Why arnt Northampton on the choice list above?

 

[Scotty]

Why arnt Northampton on the choice list above?

Because they arnt really worth putting up there...or maybe i just forgot, the same reason Sarries are at the bottom rather than the top.

I cant change it, is there anything that can be done? @TRF_Olyy

 

[Scotty]

I was Wrong Chiefs aren't getting top 4, not being rude to bath as they are a good team but if we cant beat them then how are we going to beat Tigers, LIrish and Bristol....realistically now we need to win all 3, all 10 point games for us.

 

[duncanb]

Top 4 at present are looking however after this round next to be just as much chaos as well.
Sarries obviously in and at home.
Sale just need 1 good un to join above.
Tigers playing on 2 fronts plus 2 challengers to play.
However both at home,bar injury or suspension nightmare in.
Irish huge win v our boys last night game ahead but 2 tough ones.
Saints lost out big time last night 2 games Sarries may rest depending on euro results. To bad a defensive display all season.
Exeter can't get a bone away so as 2 are away gone.
Top 4 will be as plus no change in positions.
Sarries v Irish.
Sale v Tigers.
Semi.

 

[Reiser99]

Looking at it now.

2nd: Sale need 2 points to secure top 4 and 7 points for top 2. They have Bristol(a), Gloucester (a) and Newcastle (h). They should definitely beat Newcastle and I can see them getting a result against Bristol or Gloucester so should get 2nd, especially as I can see Tigers dropping points.

3rd: Tigers need 6 points currently to secure top 4 and if Sale slip up they have a sniff at top 2. They have Exeter(h) and Harlequins(h). Tigers are finishing the season strongly and should win both games, though I don't see a bonus point against Exeter.

4th: LIrish need 8 points for top 4 and depending on if Exeter get a win they need to match Northampton and Exeter to get it. They've got Sarries(a) who are already likely to finish top, especially if they beat Saints next and then Exeter(h). While Sarries aren't easy, they will likely be weaker. I can see them beating Exeter and possibly Sarries, especially as they don't have any European games.

5th: Saints need 4 points minimum and probably maximum points and someone else to slip up. They have Sarries(h) and then Newcastle (a). I think they'll lose to Sarries and end their chances of top 4. If Sarries win they're guaranteed top spot and so will want to give themselves breathing room to rest players.

6th: Exeter have a game in hand, but need 9 points minimum and lots of results to go their way. They have Tigers(a), Bristol(h) and Gloucester(h) as well as a European game. I think after losing to Bath it's too much. Can't see them winning at Tigers and then they need to win both games and hope no one else wins.

7th: Bristol also have a game in hand and a European game. They need 11 points and others to slip up. They have Sale(h), Exeter(a) and Gloucester(h). All 3 against clubs also hunting top 4. If they beat Sale they have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

8th: Harlequins also have a game in hand and a European game. They also need 11 points and others to slip up. They have Newcastle(h), Bath(h) and Tigers away. Tbh they have the easiest run in and could well pick up 10 points in the next two games. Could easily be a winner takes all against Tigers at the end. In the current standings the team I think most likely to pip Leicester or Irish.

9th: Will it be Gloucester's year? No. They also have 3 games left and a European fixture, but need 12 points minimum with others messing up and it's too much work. They have Bath(h), Sale(h) and Bristol(a). I can't see them beating both Sale and Bristol.

I reckon the final table will be:

1) Saracens
2) Sale
3) Tigers
4) Quins
5) Irish
6) Saints
7) Bristol
8) Exeter
9) Gloucester
10) Bath
11) Newcastle

 

[Scotty]

Top 4 at present are looking however after this round next to be just as much chaos as well.
Sarries obviously in and at home.
Sale just need 1 good un to join above.
Tigers playing on 2 fronts plus 2 challengers to play.
However both at home,bar injury or suspension nightmare in.
Irish huge win v our boys last night game ahead but 2 tough ones.
Saints lost out big time last night 2 games Sarries may rest depending on euro results. To bad a defensive display all season.
Exeter can't get a bone away so as 2 are away gone.
Top 4 will be as plus no change in positions.
Sarries v Irish.
Sale v Tigers.
Semi.

I agree with that, a win today and Chiefs are right in the fight...we lost so chance all but gone. Shame but i need to remember we lost quite a few players over the last coue of seasons and bringing quite a few through and our young team brought home the prem cup so its not a bad thing but rebuilds take a few seasons sp not expecting instant fixes.

Still disapointed at today as our chance is likely gone.

 

[duncanb]

Looking at it now.

2nd: Sale need 2 points to secure top 4 and 7 points for top 2. They have Bristol(a), Gloucester (a) and Newcastle (h). They should definitely beat Newcastle and I can see them getting a result against Bristol or Gloucester so should get 2nd, especially as I can see Tigers dropping points.

3rd: Tigers need 6 points currently to secure top 4 and if Sale slip up they have a sniff at top 2. They have Exeter(h) and Harlequins(h). Tigers are finishing the season strongly and should win both games, though I don't see a bonus point against Exeter.

4th: LIrish need 8 points for top 4 and depending on if Exeter get a win they need to match Northampton and Exeter to get it. They've got Sarries(a) who are already likely to finish top, especially if they beat Saints next and then Exeter(h). While Sarries aren't easy, they will likely be weaker. I can see them beating Exeter and possibly Sarries, especially as they don't have any European games.

5th: Saints need 4 points minimum and probably maximum points and someone else to slip up. They have Sarries(h) and then Newcastle (a). I think they'll lose to Sarries and end their chances of top 4. If Sarries win they're guaranteed top spot and so will want to give themselves breathing room to rest players.

6th: Exeter have a game in hand, but need 9 points minimum and lots of results to go their way. They have Tigers(a), Bristol(h) and Gloucester(h) as well as a European game. I think after losing to Bath it's too much. Can't see them winning at Tigers and then they need to win both games and hope no one else wins.

7th: Bristol also have a game in hand and a European game. They need 11 points and others to slip up. They have Sale(h), Exeter(a) and Gloucester(h). All 3 against clubs also hunting top 4. If they beat Sale they have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

8th: Harlequins also have a game in hand and a European game. They also need 11 points and others to slip up. They have Newcastle(h), Bath(h) and Tigers away. Tbh they have the easiest run in and could well pick up 10 points in the next two games. Could easily be a winner takes all against Tigers at the end. In the current standings the team I think most likely to pip Leicester or Irish.

9th: Will it be Gloucester's year? No. They also have 3 games left and a European fixture, but need 12 points minimum with others messing up and it's too much work. They have Bath(h), Sale(h) and Bristol(a). I can't see them beating both Sale and Bristol.

I reckon the final table will be:

1) Saracens
2) Sale
3) Tigers
4) Quins
5) Irish
6) Saints
7) Bristol
8) Exeter
9) Gloucester
10) Bath
11) Newcastle

Just don't see quins making it to far out.
Irish for me but beeb a crazy season so anything for 4th is possible

 

[Jimbo]

Just don't see quins making it to far out.
Irish for me but beeb a crazy season so anything for 4th is possible

Agreed Irish have been very strong for a while but not getting the narrow victories they appear to be turning that corner recently.

 

[Scotty]

So to get anything from the Prem or Champions cup Chiefs cant lose a other game.
Have to play:
Tigers
LIrish
La Rochelle
Bristol
Sarries or Sale
Toulouse or Leinster
Final


i think our season has now peaked, i really cant see see us getting to the prem play offs or past La Rochelle but we have reall shown some fight these last 2 rounds so who knows.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

So to get anything from the Prem or Champions cup Chiefs cant lose a other game.
Have to play:
Tigers
LIrish
La Rochelle
Bristol
Sarries or Sale
Toulouse or Leinster
Final


i think our season has now peaked, i really cant see see us getting to the prem play offs or past La Rochelle but we have reall shown some fight these last 2 rounds so who knows.

So I'd fully focus on Europe and let the prem slide.

 

[Scotty]

So I'd fully focus on Europe and let the prem slide.

I hope we dont do that, focus on letting the young lads who impressed in Europe get some more gametime, like Frost Becconsall, cairns, Wyatt ext and the guys that are leaving just keep the momentumn and build.

We are 8 points behind 4th yet have a game in hand plus play 3rd and 4th. They are both 10 point games. IF we can beat them 2 over the next 2 rounds it puts us right up there going into the Bristol game. If we lose one then its over and focus on europe.

 

[Reiser99]

I hope we dont do that, focus on letting the young lads who impressed in Europe get some more gametime, like Frost Becconsall, cairns, Wyatt ext and the guys that are leaving just keep the momentumn and build.

We are 8 points behind 4th yet have a game in hand plus play 3rd and 4th. They are both 10 point games. IF we can beat them 2 over the next 2 rounds it puts us right up there going into the Bristol game. If we lose one then its over and focus on europe.

You also don't want to get knocked out of Europe and drop out of Champions cup places which is possible.

 

[Scotty]

You also don't want to get knocked out of Europe and drop out of Champions cup places which is possible.

Tbh we have Tigers Lirish then La Rochelle, 3 big games, players can get burnt-out but on the flip side to that momentum is important, we need to go hard vs tigers then Lirish if we win vs tigers. If we lose then i guess Lirish doesnt matter.

These games matter for this sesson but also next, these games are all high pressure and great for the younger players who will still be around next year, this will help our rebuild when the massive amount of experience goes in 1 go, and honestly i cant see us beating La Rochelle then Toulouse or Leinster tbh.

 

[Reiser99]

I think with Saints winning, as well as other results it means that Bristol and Gloucester definitely will miss top 4 and probably Quins now too.

Exeter vs Leicester is a big one for keeping things open. If Leicester pick up a BP win then Exeter will be pretty much out too. Then a straight shootout between Leicester, Saints and Irish. If Exeter win then it opens up even more.

Interestingly this Friday is Saints last game so they can only win and then have a long, nervous 16-day wait wait to see how other results fall.

 

[duncanb]

Agree with Reiser,next 2 fixtures should sort out who can actually have a shout.
5 for tigers all bar a freaky set of circumstances means Saints , Quins , Exeter cannot pass them.
A win for Saints Friday means Quins are out as well.
Irish need 7 from 2 matches to match Saints best possible but will be ahead on tie breaker.
Of course Sarries still need 1 win to get 1 seed, Sale still need 1 win to get 2 seed if Tigers win out.
Sarries and Sale may rest players depending on results.
See final 4 as
Sarries, Sale, Tigers and Irish.