End of season run in.

[TRF_Olyy]

Worcester Warriors

Official website of Worcester Warriors Rugby Club

warriors.co.uk

Weird one that - Wuss have no rugby scheduled in the month of May, and I think Bath have three free weekends - they asked if the Bath vs Worcester game could be brought forward but schedule changes need a unanimous vote from all clubs,
12/13 said yes so it can't go ahead

Who was the odd one out?

 

[Goodey]

Worcester Warriors

Official website of Worcester Warriors Rugby Club

warriors.co.uk

Weird one that - Wuss have no rugby scheduled in the month of May, and I think Bath have three free weekends - they asked if the Bath vs Worcester game could be brought forward but schedule changes need a unanimous vote from all clubs,
12/13 said yes so it can't go ahead

Who was the odd one out?

Newcastle trying not to finish bottom are probably the only side with any sort of interest in how Bath and Worcester do this season - but with no relegation it's a pretty thin theory.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I reckon it's Saints' spot now, will be in 4th the rest of the round regardless of the Gloucester result and have the easiest run in

 

[duncanb]

I reckon it's Saints' spot now, will be in 4th the rest of the round regardless of the Gloucester result and have the easiest run in

Think our (saints) biggest issues are the injuries picked up v quins.
TH. Carey,Hill, Painter out for season.
SR. Ribbens,Coles,
BR.Augustus,Woods.
Hopefully most can recover but TH looks dire.

 

[Goodey]

- Leicester guaranteed home semi, Saracens guaranteed at least 3rd
- Northampton and Gloucester have qualified for next year's champions cup
- London Irish officially knocked out, and Wasps will be too if they lose to them tomorrow

 

[Goodey]

I reckon it's Saints' spot now, will be in 4th the rest of the round regardless of the Gloucester result and have the easiest run in

They have an easier run in than Gloucester but they're the only team that still has to go play Saracens away.

Good chance that both Northampton and Gloucester lose next week which gives Exeter and the winner of Wasps-Sale a chance to catch up

 

[GlosJoe]

- Leicester guaranteed home semi, Saracens guaranteed at least 3rd
- Northampton and Gloucester have qualified for next year's champions cup
- London Irish officially knocked out, and Wasps will be too if they lose to them tomorrow

Great news if that's true! I would have taken that at the start of the season

 

[Scotty]

68 Saints vs Sarries Falcons
67 Glou vs Quins Sarries
62 Chiefs vs Bears Quins
61 Sale vs Wasps bears

I dont like that its not in our Hands, Saints on form should beat Falcons, Gloucester depends on the team Sarries put out. And We dont exzctly have an easy run in eith Quins last, Sale have the easiest run in bit its still unlikly.

Good Run in for the neutral though.

 

[Reiser99]

Okay so

Harlequins P22 Pts 74 (Gloucester & Exeter) Max pts 84
Northampton P22 Pts 68 (Saracens & Newcastle) Max pts 78
Gloucester P22 Pts 67 (Harlequins & Saracens) Max pts 77
Exeter P22 Pts 62 (Bristol & Harlequins) Max pts 72
Sale P22 Pts 61 (Wasps & Bristol) Max pts 71
London Irish P22 Pts 58 (Wasps & Bath) Max pts 68
Wasps P21 Pts 57 (London Irish, Sale & Leicester) Max pts 73

In theory Wasps can finish above Exeter even if Exeter win both games with a BP.

Sarries just need 2 points to secure a home semifinal so I don't see Quins getting second.

Theoretically as well Gloucester and Saints could both win their last 2 games and both pip Quins.

I can't see anyone else below Saints or Gloucester because let's say Exeter do win both games with a BP, I reckon Saints will at least get a BP win against Newcastle and put themselves out of reach. If Gloucester beat Quins though I might fancy them as Sarries are likely to play a weakened side in the last round.

 

[BPM]

Yeah, after feeling fairly safe, we're definitely looking over our shoulder now …

In a way, our defeat last night followed by Gloucester's big win today does us a bit of a favour. I hope they get a false sense of confidence from beating a truly terrible side and from our POV, I hope it gives us a kick up the backside. I didn't think we needed one, but the first half vs. Saints was surprisingly lacklustre.

The worst case scenario is that we get nothing and Saints and Gloucester get maximum points. Even if we somehow contrive to lose to both Gloucester and Exeter (which is definitely possible), we might be able to scrape by with BPs, but I really hope it doesn't come to that.

My expectation is at least 1 more win (probably Gloucester) which should see us through.

 

[Reiser99]

Yeah, after feeling fairly safe, we're definitely looking over our shoulder now …

In a way, our defeat last night followed by Gloucester's big win today does us a bit of a favour. I hope they get a false sense of confidence from beating a truly terrible side and from our POV, I hope it gives us a kick up the backside. I didn't think we needed one, but the first half vs. Saints was surprisingly lacklustre.

The worst case scenario is that we get nothing and Saints and Gloucester get maximum points. Even if we somehow contrive to lose to both Gloucester and Exeter (which is definitely possible), we might be able to scrape by with BPs, but I really hope it doesn't come to that.

My expectation is at least 1 more win (probably Gloucester) which should see us through.

If Saints do win against Sarries and you lose to Gloucester then Saints will ever have hit Exeter's max possible points or be past anyway. If Exeter don't get a BP win against Bristol then they are done. In that case while they may want to end on a win, they'll probably be lacking that killer edge that they would have if they were still competing for a play off place.

 

[duncanb]

Own personal take.
Quins ans Saints have a bit of time off.
Defo needed for Saints beaten up pack to recover.
Both teams would like I guess for Gloucester and Sarries to beat each other up in Europe on Friday ,one will not have a rest week.
Think Quins have just enough or will get enough to make them seed 3.
One of Saints or Gloucester will do enough to be seed 4.
Saints have a point edge Gloucester have points difference edge if a tie.
From a fan's view at Saints we must try and keep the point advantage going to week 26.
Who misses top 8 is interesting may go along to be decided today.
Top 2 to stay as is for me.

 

[GlosJoe]

Own personal take.
Quins ans Saints have a bit of time off.
Defo needed for Saints beaten up pack to recover.
Both teams would like I guess for Gloucester and Sarries to beat each other up in Europe on Friday ,one will not have a rest week.
Think Quins have just enough or will get enough to make them seed 3.
One of Saints or Gloucester will do enough to be seed 4.
Saints have a point edge Gloucester have points difference edge if a tie.
From a fan's view at Saints we must try and keep the point advantage going to week 26.
Who misses top 8 is interesting may go along to be decided today.
Top 2 to stay as is for me.

You guys will have the edge if points are level as we've won one less game and wins are after points

 

[BPM]

I wonder how much this weekend's European results will come in to the Premiership run-in?

Saracens now have Toulon to play next weekend and then if they win (which I think they will), they'll have a final a week prior to the play-off semis. While 2nd isn't guaranteed yet, the only way Quins can overhaul them is if we get 9 or 10 points and Saracens get nothing. We might get the wins, but I don't see them losing both of their final games. The question is whether the additional 1 or 2 games stretches their squad/introduces a bit more fatigue going in to the play-offs?

Tigers can now focus on the Premiership so I think they can choose when and if they want to rotate. I think they'll want the 100% home record so I could see them choosing to rotate away to Falcons in R25 and then go full strength in R26 to build momentum for the play off semis.

The additional game for Wasps doesn't change too much, but it might mean some rotation for R25.

 

[Goodey]

Getting knocked out of Europe probably makes it less likely they'll rest anyone, there's this week off and then the European finals weekend between rounds 25 and 26.

 

[BPM]

Yeah, hence why I said 'when and if they want to rotate'.

Harder to say re. Saracens. If they beat Toulon and end up in the final, it makes it more challenging to rotate.

 

[Scotty]

So what teams 'could' still make top 4?

With Wasps in 9th on 60 points with the available 10 points they could beat Saints and Gloucester if they fail to reach 70 right? Only team in the top 9 currently that cant make top 4 is Lirish as they are on a Bye week in round 26.

Didnt realise Wasps vs Sharks is duch a big game till looking at it all now

Is a very interesting end to the season. May be an unpopular opinion i dont know but i like the BYE weeks adds abit of jeopardy to the table as teams are ahead but played an extra game.

 

[Goodey]

Yeah technically anyone is the top 8 can sneak in but Wasps are borked imo given they need most of the teams above them to not only lose but do so without bonus points. Wasps v Sale is only really relevant if Sale get 5 points, otherwise I think both sides are more or less out of it.

 

[Goodey]

- Harlequins qualify for playoffs. They need Northampton to win for a chance of a home semi.
- Sale and Exeter qualify for the champion's cup because of London Irish losing
- Northampton need 2+ points against Saracens to officially knock Sale and Exeter out of the playoffs. Otherwise, all three and Gloucester are still in it going into the last day.
- Bristol are the only side guaranteed their finishing place right now (10th), but one of Leicester (1st if Saracens lose or draw) and Harlequins (3rd if Saracens win) will also have their position decided a week early.

 

[Scotty]

Liking what BT Sport are using, showing a form guide
Shows why Chiefs aren't in the play off race and dont deserve to be.

Wuss - red card meant we lost by 3 points

Tigers - narrow loss but deserved win for Tigs

Bath(win) - great second half

Sarries leading half time...destroyed in the 2nd

Bristol - didnt watch but given the scoreline it seems defence optional and we weren't good enough.

Last few seasons we would be winning these close battles. Or at least end strong. No complaints on any losses as its same as all season, just inconsistant Crucial injuries but still.