[COVID-19] General Discussion

[McTallshort]

On the same day that Matt Han(don)cock told the 1922 committee that that he'd booked a staycation in Cornwall apparently!

Ha! To be honest I have booked a week in Brixham in August. Keeping everything crossed at the minute. Hopefully be catching mackerel and crabbing with the kids in the sunshine but who knows.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid-19: How England's hotel quarantine will differ from Australia's

Rules for those arriving into England from "red list" countries differ from those enforced Down Under.

www.bbc.co.uk

Seems to be a common theme that the Bojo's Govt either put in place policy on this too late or just not learning from other countries that have implemented a policy and learning from their mistakes.

Even after today with Victoria entering a third lockdown and banning fans from the Australian Open, after 13 cases stemming from one worker who became infected in a quarantine hotel.

Victoria to enter lockdown with fans barred from Australian Open

Australia's state of Victoria shuts down over a dozen Covid cases but the Grand Slam will continue.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Which Tyler]

Just a quick note on the above, "Boris Johnson battles experts to save Christmas" and "Boris Johnson says 'we did everything we could'"



NHS has released figures that 101,956 people were in hospital being treated for Covid in January*.
For perspective, the entirety of 2020 saw 242,307 people in hospital being treated for Covid.

Officially, 2020 saw 80,830 people die of Covid (realistically 94k)
Less than 6 weeks of 2021 has seen 41,496 people died of Covid (unconfirmed as final figures are about 2 weeks behind)





* Government numbers are actually higher, at 112,958, with a further 15,252 in the first week of February
ETA: I think I've partially worked it out, if you look at 02-29 of January (4 weeks) gives 104k. Of course, some new admissions may be counted twice as the same patient is admitted to one hospital, and then moved to another when a bed becomes available

 

[The Seeker]

Some states are doing a good job with vaccinations, but not here in California. Things are so screwed up that many vaccinations aren't being used in time so they have to be destroyed. The state say's one thing and many of the 58 counties say another and it's become a cluster **** of bureaucracy. Sadly, it's not surprising.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

The traditional Tory-leak has happened,
Schools to re-open on March 8th, which will be announced (pending public reaction to the leak) next week

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Booked my jab for this Saturday.

 

[BiggusLaddus]

Had mine last Saturday morning (AZ).

At bedtime Saturday night I started with flu-like symptoms, but they had all passed by midday on Sunday.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Jaysus you lads are doing well. Our government boasting about jabbing 80k people this week as if it's impressive.... Haven't opened mass testing centres yet.

Not looking forward to all the social media posts of people I know living in the UK when you're out of this about 6-8 weeks earlier.

 

[Reiser99]

Jaysus you lads are doing well. Our government boasting about jabbing 80k people this week as if it's impressive.... Haven't opened mass testing centres yet.

Not looking forward to all the social media posts of people I know living in the UK when you're out of this about 6-8 weeks earlier.

I may be biased, but I still think it's more luck than judgement. Government bought more than the recommended number of vaccines not knowing if they would work and unlike many of their other purchases during the pandemic it has ended up working as advertised. This means the country has a decent supply and so even if they mess up the supply slightly there is still enough to vaccinate people who need it. I think if supplies were tighter, we would have seen more scenes like those in the EU.

 

[McTallshort]

Jaysus you lads are doing well. Our government boasting about jabbing 80k people this week as if it's impressive.... Haven't opened mass testing centres yet.

Not looking forward to all the social media posts of people I know living in the UK when you're out of this about 6-8 weeks earlier.

Got to have the second jabs yet.

 

[Reiser99]

On another note apparently there is a new variant.

Another new coronavirus variant seen in the UK

It has similar mutations to the South Africa variant, so how worrying is it?

www.bbc.co.uk

I remember reading a couple of months ago that scientists didn't think there would be lots of mutations and the virus would be pretty stable. However, to someone who is not a scientist in the know, it certainly feels like there are plenty of mutations. Anyone know if this is actually within the norm or if maybe it's mutating more than scientists expected?

 

[Which Tyler]

On another note apparently there is a new variant.

Another new coronavirus variant seen in the UK

It has similar mutations to the South Africa variant, so how worrying is it?

www.bbc.co.uk

I remember reading a couple of months ago that scientists didn't think there would be lots of mutations and the virus would be pretty stable. However, to someone who is not a scientist in the know, it certainly feels like there are plenty of mutations. Anyone know if this is actually within the norm or if maybe it's mutating more than scientists expected?

I'd not seen any thoughts (except Dido Harding) that there wouldn't be many mutations. Lots and lots of them was always likely, and the more infected people there are => the more mutations there will be.

Now, it WAS thought that the spike protein would be relatively stable, but I've no idea if that was genuine thought or hope. Of course "relatively stable" could still mean prone to mutation when there are so many cases kicking around

 

[Kiwiwomble]

question, everything on this side of the world has talked about a 2 week incubation period for COVID, hence our quarantine being 2 weeks. In fact one of our most recent hotel quarantine outbreaks was based around the person in question returning a negative test on day 13...being released and then testing positive a few days later after showing symptoms

has it been different in the uk? I only ask because I see your hotel quarantine is only 10 days

 

[Reiser99]

question, everything on this side of the world has talked about a 2 week incubation period for COVID, hence our quarantine being 2 weeks. In fact one of our most recent hotel quarantine outbreaks was based around the person in question returning a negative test on day 13...being released and then testing positive a few days later after showing symptoms

has it been different in the uk? I only ask because I see your hotel quarantine is only 10 days

From what I gather, most people should show symptoms within 10 days. I think with everything there are always going to be exceptions. In countries where cases have been low then I guess 1 person slipping the net is a serious problem. Over here where many people have had it (quite possibly the majority of the population) then actually while you may miss a few cases, getting people back to work is considered more important. I would have loved to have a more cautious approach, but reality is we have over 100,000 deaths, but now it seems that we might potentially be getting close to some kind of herd immunity.

 

[Which Tyler]

With all the usual provisos about being well outside my scope...

It's complicated; basically the amount of virus you shed isn't a bell curve over time, but a trailing (lognormal distribution?) - exponential rise to an early peak, then much longer trailing end.

Date of infection to start of shedding is different for different viral loads of infection, and different methods of viral introduction; but typically 1-3 days.
Then from start of shedding to onset of symptoms typically around 12-60 hours.
From onset of symptoms to peak shedding another 1-3 days, before trailing off.
So at 10 days, 80% of people will be shedding a small enough quantity to not infect anyone else (depending on time-scales, environmental factors etc etc).
at 14 days, 92% of people will be shedding a small enough blah blah
at 21 days, 98% of people will be shedding a small enough blah blah

Then you introduce the sensitivity of the testing - how much viral load is required to trigger a positive? how many false-negatives result?
After that, you have the specificity of the test - is a positive result actually positive for what it's testing for, or will some other confounder trigger a false-positive?

NB: Do'nt rely on those figures being accurate - I'm going by memory for the early stages, and pulling them out of my backside for illustrative purposes for 14 and 21 days.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid: Man offered vaccine after error lists him as 6.2cm tall

Liam Thorp shares his surprise after the NHS mixes up his height and weight in spectacular fashion.

www.bbc.co.uk

Lol.

 

[Which Tyler]

Not seeing this anywhere else but if true, what are the implications?
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/02/17/europe/uk-astrazeneca-vaccine-contract-details-intl/index.html

 

[duncanb]

Been around for awhile during first cock up by EU or their covid task force.
They promised much cash and promises but all subject to successful trials.
Others eg Israel and UK gambled, or trusted people in charge ( take your pick) and are delivering.
Me I would always have stayed in EU , but this highlights the **** fest that is EU.
Also we find garbage EU is chucking out re
Gabs between jabs
AZ is shite
Can't give to over 50
2nd class Vaccine.
Loads of Vaccine available by March.
Sad for me I thought EU was the dogs ********.
UK pants for many things during this time however EU doing its best to look worse, hard as that to think.

 

[McTallshort]

Been around for awhile during first cock up by EU or their covid task force.
They promised much cash and promises but all subject to successful trials.
Others eg Israel and UK gambled, or trusted people in charge ( take your pick) and are delivering.
Me I would always have stayed in EU , but this highlights the **** fest that is EU.
Also we find garbage EU is chucking out re
Gabs between jabs
AZ is shite
Can't give to over 50
2nd class Vaccine.
Loads of Vaccine available by March.
Sad for me I thought EU was the dogs ********.
UK pants for many things during this time however EU doing its best to look worse, hard as that to think.

There is something dodgy about the way the AZ vaccine has been made for under 65s only etc even though Who have said its OK and they think the gap in Vaccines is the right thing to do. Feels like the wrong type of political games at the worst time

 

[duncanb]

There is something dodgy about the way the AZ vaccine has been made for under 65s only etc even though Who have said its OK and they think the gap in Vaccines is the right thing to do. Feels like the wrong type of political games at the worst time

Made for all not for under 65s however you have right to believe so if you wish a conspiracy theory doing the FB rounds that ignores science however.