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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Jabby said:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...cientists-horrified-at-herd-immunity-strategy

so strange actual experts can disagree some completely...well...maybe not...but still scary, you just never know what the right thing to do is
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It's burried but whilst the 200 scientists are obviously very bright talented people with some knowledge in the area such as mathematicians and medics. None were actually 'experts' in the fields of knowledge required for dealing with epidemics/pandemics.
 
ncurd said:
It's burried but whilst the 200 scientists are obviously very bright talented people with some knowledge in the area such as mathematicians and medics. None were actually 'experts' in the fields of knowledge required for dealing with epidemics/pandemics.
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whilst there are a lot of math and physics people in there these are just some of the ***les in the first few pages

Lecturer in Pharmacology and Toxicology,
Research Fellow, National Heart and Lung Institute,
Research Associate, Department of Immunology and Inflammation, Imperial College London
Research Associate at the Department of Haematology
Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellow in Basic Biomedical Science
PhD student in Biological Sciences, University of Cambridge
Lecturer in Pharmacology and Toxicology, Brunel University London
Research assistant in Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

add to that all the ones that dont actually say what they're lecturing/researching, i dont think anyone can really say definitively 'None were actually 'experts' in the fields of knowledge required"...especially just on the job ***le
 
Yoshimitsu said:
https://www.englandrugby.com/news/a...ZYJZyI9JPQv2HIDKySX4fnOWwmsZIpozersDdHX9Sae9U

Inevitable I guess. Still very sad.

Good luck all. Stay safe.


Genuinely interested, how so? I assume ignoring the instructions of the union would have consequences. Also I imagine clubs would be in serious danger of litigation should they overule and then infect a member of staff leading to disability / death.
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If two clubs decide to play each other they can. Obviously I doubt any will but technically they can.

Although I'm still not sure what all this will achieve. Isolate those most at risk and move on as normal. Some of the panic measures governments have imposed make no sense
 
Jabby said:
snip
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Actually yes none are experts your looking for Virologists and other specialists in IPC

https://www.who.int/gpsc/ipc/en/

I'm defining the difference between someone with background knowledge and people who live an breathe this stuff.

For example I can talk the talk with web developers and to most people I really know my ****. However reality is I'm a C++/C# person and it's been my job for well over decade.

Or in rugby terms you put Lawes at 6 but he's not an expert he is one at lock.
 
Tallshort said:
Although I'm still not sure what all this will achieve. Isolate those most at risk and move on as normal. Some of the panic measures governments have imposed make no sense
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A] It's tough to keep 1.5m apart on the terraces.
B] it's tough to keep 1.5m apart on public transport.
C] Players are being infected
D] It frees up ambulances, medical staff, police etc etc to be where they're more needed
 
ncurd said:
Actually yes none are experts your looking for Virologists and other specialists in IPC

https://www.who.int/gpsc/ipc/en/

I'm defining the difference between someone with background knowledge and people who live an breathe this stuff.

For example I can talk the talk with web developers and to most people I really know my ****. However reality is I'm a C++/C# person and it's been my job for well over decade.

Or in rugby terms you put Lawes at 6 but he's not an expert he is one at lock.
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i guess using your own logic you're not qualified to even identify who we should be listening too....

Siouxsie Wiles in that article is a specialist in infectious diseases...are you honestly saying thats not good enough for her to have an opinion?

how about Helen Petousis-Harris, a vaccinologist, an immunisation specialist...i think she might have some knowledge on herb-immunisation
 
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Jabby said:
i guess using your own logic you're not qualified to even identify who we should be listening too....
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Actually is some regards I'm not that's why it's important to actually really important not to read headlines like '200+' scientists say the government is mad and dig a little. If the news article is not saying they are specialist in this field of study high chances they aren't. This doesn't discount that they don't have important things to say and shouldn't be listened to in some regards.

I'm lucky I have a good friend (who unsurpsingly is extremely overworked currently) who is a leading specialist in this area. So I pretty much take her advice on who to listen and who not to.
 
ncurd said:
Actually is some regards I'm not that's why it's important to actually really important not to read headlines like '200+' scientists say the government is mad and dig a little. If the news article is not saying they are specialist in this field of study high chances they aren't. This doesn't discount that they don't have important things to say and shouldn't be listened to in some regards.

I'm lucky I have a good friend (who unsurpsingly is extremely overworked currently) who is a leading specialist in this area. So I pretty much take her advice on who to listen and who not to.
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can you quote them? i assume theyve made a public statement in support of the herd-immunity approach?
 
Jabby said:
can you quote them? i assume theyve made a public statement in support of the herd-immunity approach?
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Well for one the government has back tracked, I'm not entirely convinced they ever said it. However she is publicly and privately backing the government approach, I'm not going to quote Facebook posts but you can google her and look her up on twitter. Ive actually mentioned her long before now in this thread.

Please don't actually contact her directly and last thing she needs right now is rugby nerds trying to win an arguement with me.

http://www.londonsenate.nhs.uk/team/dr-elaine-cloutman-green/
 
And as always other opinions are available, all I want in all this is make sure people critically assess the facts. I've said several times I'm unconvinced the governments approach personally. However I've come to the conclusion I think we're boned whatever we do. We either tank the economy (which is important to actually run services people need and get them jobs) through intense isolation praying for a vaccine (see Singapore/South Korea) or everything else will overwhelm health services and it's all about how you manage it from there on out.

What we have here is a **** show folks, protect your vulnerable friends/family by isolating them as much as possible. Keep yourself healthy, hope if you do get it that by being healthy and youngish your unlikely to need additional care.
 
ncurd said:
Well for one the government has back tracked, I'm not entirely convinced they ever said it. However she is publicly and privately backing the government approach, I'm not going to quote Facebook posts but you can google her and look her up on twitter. Ive actually mentioned her long before now in this thread.

Please don't actually contact her directly and last thing she needs right now is rugby nerds trying to win an arguement with me.

http://www.londonsenate.nhs.uk/team/dr-elaine-cloutman-green/
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she doesn't seem to have been quoted in the last month, to each their own but i think i'll put my trust in those that have had the to conviction to put their name on a stance recently

you obviously have the inside track knowing her personally but the rest of us have to trust the info we can actually read
 
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Jabby said:
she doesn't seem to have been quoted in the last month, to each their own but i think i'll put my trust in those that have had the to conviction to put their name on a stance recently

you obviously have the inside track knowing her personally but the rest of us have to trust the info we can actually read
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Hmmm odd she was on LBC and Radio5 just over 2 weeks ago before the government announced their plans....probably said nothing exciting or headline grabbing.

I think you'll find most people who are actually specialists don't have the time currently most are working almost flat out. Last week they were told to drop everything additional they had on thier plate (and they'd already been on this for over 6 weeks at that point as their main body of work). I'm not sure they have time to write a snottygram to the government.
 
ncurd said:
It's burried but whilst the 200 scientists are obviously very bright talented people with some knowledge in the area such as mathematicians and medics. None were actually 'experts' in the fields of knowledge required for dealing with epidemics/pandemics.
Click to expand...

Ask yourself, what did the countries that have experience with SARS and MERS do?

(and when was the last time Chris Whitty or Patrick Vallance dealt with an epidemic)


Theoretical knowledge is great, experience is priceless.
 
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk

For example, health services are less busy in the summer months when flu and other winter bugs are not driving GP consultations and hospital admissions. In the 2009 'swine flu' pandemic school holidays significantly slowed transmission of the virus.
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Amazing.


Now if they knew that they were intending to try and bite this f**ker off over the summer so that it would coincide with the summer calmer period for the NHS - why oh why were they not scrambling for ventilators a month or 6 weeks ago? [edit: and why were they not telling everyone this is the plan - that is not a delayed peak - that is biting the peak]

Elements of the plan are questionable, but at least have a logical thread through them where you can see the thinking. But f**k me the implementation is shocking. A good plan can still utterly fail through crap execution.

Right now the UK are working with a questionable plan and could not possibly be making a bigger hash of executing it.
 
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