Bet on the Lions Winning?

[TRF_stormer2010]

Dane Coles ribs are still suspect. I cant see anything other than the Canes tight 5 going backwards at a huge rate of knots.

I too rate the Lions scrum way ahead of that of the 'Canes but I've learnt to not expect that to be a huge swing unless both sides make an unusual number of handling errors and/or the 'Canes don't scrum clever or get the benefit of doubt (or simply non-calls at scrum) at home. I expect them to do so. I can't see the scrum being too big of a factor TBH but I'm hoping I'm wrong. I think the line-out should be even enough. Thats the one facet of play the Highlanders had a slight advantage over the Lions. I expect the line-out will be more determining as both teams have been kicking well and have been handling well and have brought the same approach into the play-offs and I don't see why that should not continue to be the case.

 

[SomeOke]

So if you pull out now it'll be £5k (£3k profit). If you stay in and Lions win it'll be £16k (£14k profit). So does that make the odds for you now roughly 3-1 for the final?

It's not a 3k Profit vs a 14k profit, it's a 3k profit vs a -2000 loss. Take that dollah, count yourself lucky.

 

[Pollock]

I too rate the Lions scrum way ahead of that of the 'Canes but I've learnt to not expect that to be a huge swing unless both sides make an unusual number of handling errors and/or the 'Canes don't scrum clever or get the benefit of doubt (or simply non-calls at scrum) at home. I expect them to do so. I can't see the scrum being too big of a factor TBH but I'm hoping I'm wrong. I think the line-out should be even enough. Thats the one facet of play the Highlanders had a slight advantage over the Lions. I expect the line-out will be more determining as both teams have been kicking well and have been handling well and have brought the same approach into the play-offs and I don't see why that should not continue to be the case.

It's all on who the ref is .

The canes lineout is not in the top 8 sides in the S18 (because of them having a flanker at hooker)
The chiefs scrum was dominant.

NZ refs seem to even things up in the scrums.

Glen Jackson will be reffing this game so expect the lions scrum to be penelized suddenly.

 

[George Ford]

So if you pull out now it'll be £5k (£3k profit). If you stay in and Lions win it'll be £16k (£14k profit). So does that make the odds for you now roughly 3-1 for the final?

Not quite 3/1, closer to 2/1. Remember if you bet £100 at 2/1, you get £300 (£200 profit and your £100 stake). So if I cashed out for £5,000, and bet on the Lions at 2/1 I'd get £15,000.

The reason I'm being offered this exact amount is because the Lions are being priced as 2/1 (33%) underdogs for the final.

They played some brilliant rugby, but the Hurricanes look so strong at home, and SA teams travelling to NZ just have such awful records.
The weather forecast as you say is important, and it looks wet and windy according to a few forecasts I've seen.
I don't think this Hurricanes team are invincible, but their defence was pretty ferocious against the Chiefs. Home advantage is huge. I've got a week to decide, hopefully Perenara gets banned, Coles ruled out with injury and a few other things swing the odds back closer towards the Lions, but my gut feeling is I might take the money and run.

Cheers for the feedback!

Whats the point of a gamble if you don't gamble at all.. Why not rather put your guts to the gamble, than risk being left feeling gutted.. I don't know what I'm saying and obviously I don't care if you win or lose. But you may as well cash in now if you intend on playing safe.

 

[RedruthRFC]

What percentage of your bank does the stake represent?

Based on the fact that you don't appear to understand bankroll management or value, I would suggest that you cash out ASAP and do a lot of reading before you bet again with anything more than pocket change.

 

[Nubiwan]

I say go for it. After just watching the Canes and Chiefs match, I think you are up against the softest of the NZ teams left in it. If your pack can dominate like it did the Highlanders, then I reckon the lions could well win it. Keep Barrett quiet, and your set.

 

[Ludders93]

I'm only 19, and starting university in a month's time, so the 16k would be pretty sweet, but I don't really care much about losing 2k, which is why I'm tempted just to stick it out and see how it goes.

But I just cannot see the Lions winning this match. Glen Jackson being appointed referee makes things even worse, and according to google weather there's a 75% chance of rain in Wellington on Saturday evening and 25mph winds

If I were to cash out though it wouldn't be to lock the 5k away and never gamble again, It'd be to wait for a better spot to place bets on. This year's rugby championship being the next stop probably

Also surely the Hurricanes won't botch two straight home finals, I just feel this year's going to be their year, their defence is ferocious, even though nubiwan i agree with you I never thought they were a great team

 

[RedruthRFC]

If I were to cash out though it wouldn't be to lock the 5k away and never gamble again, It'd be to wait for a better spot to place bets on.

This illustrates my point - if you're betting within your bank, why on earth would you pass up an opportunity that you consider to be +EV? If not, cash out and learn about bankroll management, variance and self control before betting again. If you consider the opportunity -EV, /thread.

I'll ask again, why percentage of your bank does your initial stake represent?

 

[Nubiwan]

hang on a minute. who puts a crazy amount of money on a crazy bet, only to see the crazy bet come to within 80 minutes of fruition, then get cold feet.

From where I stand, you threw away 2 grand when you placed the bet. A bet you don't care about apparently. If you cash out before the final, and lose your 16K, then you are a mug.

All sounds fishy to me anyway......

 

[Ludders93]

I thought the Lions were a good bet at the time, but I also thought before the playoffs they had a decent shot at a home final.

If one of the Brumbies or Stormers had beaten the Highlanders or Chiefs at home, then the Lions would've hosted them in the semi final, and been huge favourites. I always thought the Lions would beat the Crusaders.

And I was hoping that the Chiefs would beat the Hurricanes of course on Saturday. I'm not nervous or that bothered, but I just don't see the Lions winning in NZ, so think taking the profit and moving on could be a wise move

And i'm not bothered by 2k tbh, maybe 1% or something. I've had some pretty rough poker losses recently playing 25/50 NLH so i'm being a bit tighter with money than normal but dropping 2k wouldn't make me annoyed, it's more a question of whether locking in the 5k and then betting on the all blacks to sweep the rugby championship at 7/4 is a better shout for example

 

[Sker]

Reading this thread makes me sad.

"And I'm not bothered by 2k tbh"

That's almost more if not more than my monthly salary (converted to rand) and I thought I'm in a pretty decent place in my life. *sigh*

Can I move to wherever you are?

 

[Nubiwan]

Reading this thread makes me sad.

"And I'm not bothered by 2k tbh"

That's almost more if not more than my monthly salary (converted to rand) and I thought I'm in a pretty decent place in my life. *sigh*

Can I move to wherever you are?

It is why it also sounds fishy. If you place a bet like this - that is - more than most people make in a week - then you clearly have more cash than you know what to do with, or a hefty gambling issue.

Sounds more like fancy.

 

[WaterboySA]

Reading this thread makes me sad.

"And I'm not bothered by 2k tbh"

That's almost more if not more than my monthly salary (converted to rand) and I thought I'm in a pretty decent place in my life. *sigh*

Can I move to wherever you are?

LOL, it IS more than my monthly salary and I've been working at the same place for 25 years this year(Government)...but I would not swop this country for any place in the world.

 

[SomeOke]

If I were to cash out though it wouldn't be to lock the 5k away and never gamble again, It'd be to wait for a better spot to place bets on. This year's rugby championship being the next stop probably

Continually putting your money into new gambling ventures sounds like an excellent way of making sure you lose all your money eventually.
Gambling is almost always a dumb move statistically, perhaps you should spent the money on hookers and cocaine instead?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Continually putting your money into new gambling ventures sounds like an excellent way of making sure you lose all your money eventually.
Gambling is almost always a dumb move statistically, perhaps you should spent the money on hookers and cocaine instead?

I had a crack at low level betting a few years back for kicks. I made surprising inroads but lost it all (not much though, maybe R5000 at that stage all together having started with R200) pretty soon as I just don't have it in me to keep a level head and I won't try it again. I was told to put my money where my mouth was when I said 2015 that Japan are actually well placed (the Jones factor and how well his teams tend to fare against us, our own pitifully awkward selection for that game, the French ref etc) to put one over on SA. Pity I didn't.

 

[RedruthRFC]

I had a crack at low level betting a few years back for kicks. I made surprising inroads but lost it all (not much though, maybe R5000 at that stage all together having started with R200) pretty soon as I just don't have it in me to keep a level head and I won't try it again. I was told to put my money where my mouth was when I said 2015 that Japan are actually well placed (the Jones factor and how well his teams tend to fare against us, our own pitifully awkward selection for that game, the French ref etc) to put one over on SA. Pity I didn't.

Not saying it's the case in your instance, but you'd be surprised how many bets you have to make to say with any sort of statistical confidence that you're a profitable gambler. There's plenty of stories of people who have developed gambling problems because they ran hot when they started betting and assumed that it was easy, it's rather like the odd priceless idiot who crops up on gambling forums claiming to be a professional *insert random negative expectation game here* (usually roulette) player. As you rightly say, tilt can be a major leak with the potential to turn a profitable gambler into a losing one. I don't think I'm cut out for in play betting either.

Even if you can overcome the bookies' superior resources and make better predictions than them, the overround of the book makes betting profitably an uphill struggle. Personally I only ever bet for fun (either the fun of doing the research or of making the contest I'm watching a bit more interesting). If I was taking it more seriously, I would restrict myself to markets with less traded on them and study everything that relates to them religiously. Eastern European soccer seems to be an area that a lot of people focus on, but I would rather poke my own eyes out than try to become an expert! In rugby, I suspect I would be profitable on The GKIPA Championship - a league which I'm pretty sure I know a lot more about than those setting the markets, but the opportunities are so few and far between and the liquidity of the markets so low it wouldn't be a route to riches.

 

[Ludders93]

If anyone's interested, I've let it run. I'm not confident in the Lions, but **** it, I've come this far, why stop now.

Redruth if you want to win money betting on sport, become an arber. Arber's can easily make 100k a year with a good enough strategy, people who try to get edge on certain leagues and certain sports through research/knowledge will expend a huge amount of effort normally to go nowhere.

Me, i'm just happy throwing my money away slowly I'm 19 anyway, too early in life to worry.

Hope it's a good game anyway, and thanks everyone who's commented for input. I'll donate £100 to this forum if the Lions win