A Political Thread

[Bada-Bing!]

Johnson's best chance at a general election is to have it ASAP.

The longer he's in power for, the more his "energetic optimism" is exposed for delusion, and the more his popularity will take a hit.

Cummings is already working the data, and manipuling the minds. I guess he's got 6 weeks to decide the maths; though I still think Johnson's aim is to convince Brits that it's EU intransigence that is leading to no deal, and for Corbyn to call the vote of no confidence, so that he gets his election without the blame.

Corbyn, of course, would rather have the GE after Brexit has started and gone to ****, so that he can sweep in with his reforms, whilst Johnson takes all the blame and the conservative party fractures into the ERG and the rest, with the BnP and UKIP having no further reason for existence. Suspect Corbyn would be quite happy to see some violence on the streets as well (before taking office).
Neither labour nor conservative are likely to actually do well with an early GE, but if Johnson can get one before his bluster is exposed to reality, he may just get a majority that doesn't need the DUP.



Whatever happens, things are going to be interesting, scary, and hard to predict. Boris currently has the equivalent of a dead-cat bounce; but I doubt that that will last long.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/27/boris-johnson-early-election-dilemma

Yep, Pretty much what this article is saying. Johnson will enjoy a few honeymoon months known as the "Bounce".

 

[General Melchett]

So Parliament resumes in early September, BoJo heads to Brussels looking to re negotiate and comes back claiming the nasty EU wouldn't budge and so we are heading for No deal. Labour triggers the confidence vote in the Government and wins due to there being enough Tory rebels.

What happens next? Can a GE be realistically held before 31 October? The PM would still need to go back to Brussels to ask for another extension to avoid No deal and he'll probably refuse to do it as he'd be toast in his own party. Parliament takes control and overrides the Government? There is some major beef coming in Sept/Oct but as long as they all have a nice summer holiday that's the main thing.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

So Parliament resumes in early September, BoJo heads to Brussels looking to re negotiate and comes back claiming the nasty EU wouldn't budge and so we are heading for No deal. Labour triggers the confidence vote in the Government and wins due to there being enough Tory rebels.

What happens next? Can a GE be realistically held before 31 October? The PM would still need to go back to Brussels to ask for another extension to avoid No deal and he'll probably refuse to do it as he'd be toast in his own party. Parliament takes control and overrides the Government? There is some major beef coming in Sept/Oct but as long as they all have a nice summer holiday that's the main thing.

Tbf this session has run for two years now, wouldn't be so keen if that was your job like

 

[General Melchett]

Tbf this session has run for two years now, wouldn't be so keen if that was your job like

https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2018/july/house-of-commons-rises-for-summer-recess-2018/

You're having a laugh right? They had the same recess last year and only ever show up for PMQs on a Wednesday plus any other important votes. The rest of the time they are getting ****** in the HoC bars, heading back to their constituencies on expenses or on holiday.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2018/july/house-of-commons-rises-for-summer-recess-2018/

You're having a laugh right? They had the same recess last year and only ever show up for PMQs on a Wednesday plus any other important votes. The rest of the time they are getting ****** in the HoC bars, heading back to their constituencies on expenses or on holiday.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.u...-this-the-longest-parliamentary-session-ever/

I think you underestimate that job tbh. I know a lot of people in that world and they work a lot harder than y'all seem to.give them credit for

 

[Gavin]

Sammy Wilson from the DUP saying that the Irish government is looking to tear up the Good Friday Agreement.

DUP MP Sammy Wilson has accused the Irish government of trying to "tear up" the Good Friday Agreement.

His comments came after Taoiseach (Irish PM) Leo Varadkar said a no-deal Brexit could lead to a united Ireland .

Mr Wilson said he was seeking a border between Britain and NI and accused the Irish government of casting aside the principle of consent for the border

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-49141172

Seems to me they are ranking up the hatred for the Irish in an attempt to blame a No Deal on Europe

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Sammy Wilson from the DUP saying that the Irish government is looking to tear up the Good Friday Agreement.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-49141172

Seems to me they are ranking up the hatred for the Irish in an attempt to blame a No Deal on Europe

Varadkar eloquently explains that BoJo is putting the GFA in jeopardy. Wilson "no u"...

Johnson is fully prepared to go through with the no deal Brexit and allow the EU put up the border, which they legally have to so as to stop Ireland becoming a modern day wild west, and just shrug his shoulders and say it was the Europeans not him. So thinly veiled and obvious that he doesn't care about the North at all, he'd happily be the prime minister of England & Wales, all brexiteers would.

 

[Which Tyler]

So Parliament resumes in early September, BoJo heads to Brussels looking to re negotiate and comes back claiming the nasty EU wouldn't budge and so we are heading for No deal. Labour triggers the confidence vote in the Government and wins due to there being enough Tory rebels.

What happens next? Can a GE be realistically held before 31 October? The PM would still need to go back to Brussels to ask for another extension to avoid No deal and he'll probably refuse to do it as he'd be toast in his own party. Parliament takes control and overrides the Government? There is some major beef coming in Sept/Oct but as long as they all have a nice summer holiday that's the main thing.

IIRC, they've got about 2-3 weeks after they get back before it's too late to hold a GE before the exit date, so not necessary to request the extension until we're past that.
Of course, Johnson and Corbyn would both be perfectly happy to fallout of the EU "by mistake" whilst they're busy arguing.

As to the results of any GE. Right now, we'd probably get a Tory majority (or at least, Tory+BnP)
Give it a month, and that's still likely
2 months, and gods only know

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

IIRC, they've got about 2-3 weeks after they get back before it's too late to hold a GE before the exit date, so not necessary to request the extension until we're past that.
Of course, Johnson and Corbyn would both be perfectly happy to fallout of the EU "by mistake" whilst they're busy arguing.

As to the results of any GE. Right now, we'd probably get a Tory majority (or at least, Tory+BnP)
Give it a month, and that's still likely
2 months, and gods only know

No I disagree acc. Could see a drop in Tory support and labour and all those votes get split between lib dem and Brexit party, meaning that because the lib Dems will refuse to be in a coalition again then we are left with a minority conservative government (that the dup won't have enough to save) may not be the worst thing ever, might force some comprises

 

[Which Tyler]

Varadkar eloquently explains that BoJo is putting the GFA in jeopardy. Wilson "no u"...

Johnson is fully prepared to go through with the no deal Brexit and allow the EU put up the border, which they legally have to so as to stop Ireland becoming a modern day wild west, and just shrug his shoulders and say it was the Europeans not him. So thinly veiled and obvious that he doesn't care about the North at all, he'd happily be the prime minister of England & Wales, all brexiteers would.

Feature, not a bug.
Scotland at least, is to the left on Britain as a whole, Tories would be very happy to rid themselves of 59 non-tories from Westminster, so long as they don't get blamed for breaking up the union.
Northern Ireland barely gets given a thought in Westminster beyond (it's our toy, you can't have it).

 

[Which Tyler]

No I disagree acc. Could see a drop in Tory support and labour and all those votes get split between lib dem and Brexit party, meaning that because the lib Dems will refuse to be in a coalition again then we are left with a minority conservative government (that the dup won't have enough to save) may not be the worst thing ever, might force some comprises

I think Johnson gets a dead cat bounce with his energistic optimism right now. Yes, they'd lost votes to the BnP, who they'd absolutely form a coalition with.
But hey, it's all guessing right now.

 

[General Melchett]

The Johnson dead cat bounce might tail off just as Parliament resumes in early September after he's played all his joker cards such as the Manchester to Leeds high speed link and 20k more police officers etc.

I have heard a lot of people like JRM claim that BoJo has electoral stardust. I think they are a bit deluded about how popular he still is these days. He is very much living off his Have I Got News for You appearances with the older generation Tory members. The city of London pretty much despises him now and every remainer up and down the land hates him. He's then in a battle with Farage for the Brexiteer vote.

I wouldn't be surprised if we do fall out 'by mistake' and if the No deal blockers like Starmer, Hammond (who together are now meant to secretly plotting against BoJo) can pass legislation blocking No deal I can see a huge debate arising as to whether or not our No deal exit was lawful. We could then be in a position where nobody knows for sure whether we are in or out and it may well end up going to court for a ruling. There's an almighty **** show around the corner.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Can we please stop talking about Johnson and dead cat bounces. There is one cat in number 10 that doesn't appreciate it.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

View attachment 7257

Can we please stop talking about Johnson and dead cat bounces. There is one cat in number 10 that doesn't appreciate it.

Haha, although deadly rival Palmerston at the FCO may have a different take! He'll let us know via Twitter soon enough.

 

[Which Tyler]

7 years ago today we were all watching the London Olympics opening ceremony. A celebration of optimism, unity, diversity, humanity and inclusion.

We've come a long way.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Haha, although deadly rival Palmerston at the FCO may have a different take! He'll let us know via Twitter soon enough.

Love Larry's tweets. What a great job whoever does it on his behalf. The humor is right on the button. Not seen Palmerston tweet for a while. Last one was end of May.

 

[ncurd]

7 years ago today we were all watching the London Olympics opening ceremony. A celebration of optimism, unity, diversity, humanity and inclusion.

We've come a long way.

I spent three weeks of my life volunteering at the Olympics, the good will, effort and can do attitude done by people was amazing. Such a shame it'll considered a high point for British Culture before we descended into madness.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I spent three weeks of my life volunteering at the Olympics, the good will, effort and can do attitude done by people was amazing. Such a shame it'll considered a high point for British Culture before we descended into madness.

Oh ye of little faith. It was all down to Boris and now he's running the country.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

BoJo set to spaff away £100m on advertising the benefits of a no deal brexit.

Tories are just something else.

 

[ncurd]

Oh ye of little faith. It was all down to Boris and now he's running the country.

As many people say to those comments I'm sure Tessa Jowell is rolling in her grave.