A Political Thread

[General Melchett]

For me it has to be someone with a track record of running Government departments well rather than some gobshite who flip flops and talks a good game. This is what surprised me about May - a poor Home Secretary and yet they picked her to be PM.

I know he gets stick for stabbing Boris in the back (he did the country a favour and TBH most of them are selfish gits out for themselves) but I'd go for Gove who probably is the sharpest of them all and gets a lot of praise from those who have actually worked with him in various departments or Hancock who has done a far better job than Hunt as Health Secretary. Rory Stewart is interesting but just seems a bit mild mannered and doesn't come across as PM material.

 

[ncurd]

gets a lot of praise from those who have actually worked with him in various departmentserial.

Sadly this not the case, he's known as a lazy sod, was genuinely quite disliked throughout his staff and was reviled by the education system. He was better liked by the
judiciary his only saving grace I've heard is he was better to work for than May.

Should add this is secondish hand information the friend I know who worked for them both within the Civil Service doesn't talk to me about it and I hear this through another friend who is a lot closer to that person.

 

[Which Tyler]

Rory Stewart is possibly the only other one with a brain.

Seems like he's the closest thing to competent the tories can provide; whether I agree with him or not.

 

[ncurd]

Seems like he's the closest thing to competent the tories can provide; whether I agree with him or not.

Lets remember back in 2016 May was considered the least worst option and that worked out a treat...

 

[Which Tyler]

Lets remember back in 2016 May was considered the least worst option and that worked out a treat...

In the land of the blind...

 

[General Melchett]

Sadly this not the case, he's known as a lazy sod, was genuinely quite disliked throughout his staff and was reviled by the education system. He was better liked by the
judiciary his only saving grace I've heard is he was better to work for than May.

Should add this is secondish hand information the friend I know who worked for them both within the Civil Service doesn't talk to me about it and I hear this through another friend who is a lot closer to that person.

True he was unpopular in Education primarily because he was attempting to push through a lot of radical changes and reform which was unsurprisingly met with a lot of resistance. I have heard that he invests a lot of time educating himself on the issues within the department in which he works which is more than can be said for others. From what I have heard he is actually quite popular with farmers and environmentalists, particularly in comparison to his predecessors and he gave Corbyn one hell of a beat down at the despatch box in Parliament a few weeks ago. Let's not forget that being a popular secretary of state is pretty much unheard of as there will always be some with an axe to grind. He's far from perfect and it only goes to highlight that the field of candidates (Leadsome, McVey, Javid, Hunt, BoJo) is shockingly poor.

 

[Reiser99]

Labour once again showing they have their priorities all wrong. Alastair Campbell expelled for voting for another party. Yes it may be the rules but why is it being enforced so quickly and decisively compared with others. Here's a quote that highlights just that.

Jess Phillips, who represents Birmingham Yardley, tweeted that Mr Campbell was "expelled quicker than a man who threatened to kill me [and] quicker than a man in my [local party] who denied the Holocaust", adding: "Both are only still suspended."

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Seems like he's the closest thing to competent the tories can provide; whether I agree with him or not.

Look at the roles Stewart's held. Not remotely qualified to be PM in one of the most difficult peacetime periods ever. Not sure, who is, mind.

Ditto McVey.

Stalking horses or egos?

Labour once again showing they have their priorities all wrong. Alastair Campbell expelled for voting for another party. Yes it may be the rules but why is it being enforced so quickly and decisively compared with others. Here's a quote that highlights just that.

Jess Phillips, who represents Birmingham Yardley, tweeted that Mr Campbell was "expelled quicker than a man who threatened to kill me [and] quicker than a man in my [local party] who denied the Holocaust", adding: "Both are only still suspended."

Don't think its priorities, more a question of easy admin. Black and white offence resolved at the press of a button, can't say that for the others. But, yes, they will want to make a party discipline point too.

 

[General Melchett]

I'd rule out anyone with either less than three years cabinet experience or who has flip flopped from Remain to Brexiteer or vice versa. This situation needs someone with experience, brainpower, leadership and vision.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I'd rule out anyone with either less than three years cabinet experience or who has flip flopped from Remain to Brexiteer or vice versa. This situation needs someone with experience, brainpower, leadership and vision.

Ken Clarke it is then.

 

[ncurd]

Don't think its priorities, more a question of easy admin. Black and white offence resolved at the press of a button, can't say that for the others. But, yes, they will want to make a party discipline point too.

Kate Hoey hasn't been expelled for similar offences (publically telling people to vote gore Brexit party).

What Campbell had been expelled for is voting Lib Dem whilst being a prominent Blairite.

 

[General Melchett]

Is anyone familiar with the Labour party leadership rules? Can any MP mount a challenge to Corbyn at any time or is he as safe as houses due to his popularity amongst the hard left party membership? Replacing him with someone like David Miliband (if he were to become an MP again) could be a game changer.

It's hard to believe that he can cling on to his position despite the fact that most of his MPs think he's useless and he only has support of a handful plus party members.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[Which Tyler]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat-brexiters-55-to-43-in-eu-vote/

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Find it hard to believe that 2% of brexit party voters want to remain

 

[Which Tyler]

Find it hard to believe that 2% of brexit party voters want to remain

Me too - my guess is that either that's the joy of statistics, where you kinda have to move the decimal point from your figures to make a generalisation (so 0 cases in 200,000 becomes a 1/2000 risk) or 2% of Brexit party voters are too thick to know how to put a cross in a box.

 

[ncurd]

There is the 'stick it to the man!' group of idiots who just vote for anyone they think will cause most disruption. I suppose they could vote remain....

 

[General Melchett]

The Times is saying that Hunt has made a big gaffe by saying that No deal would be political suicide. Whatsapp groups of Tory MPs are now joking about his flip flopping from Remain to Brexiteer to No dealer to Anti-No deal. Not his first gaffe - in his first major overseas trip as Foreign secretary he told a bunch of Chinese diplomats that his wife is Japanese when she is in fact Chinese.

Also, there will be TV debates featuring the Tory leadership contenders from mid June which is surely a good thing so that they can be properly tested. It reminded me how Theresa May chickened out of any TV debates at the last general election.

 

[Which Tyler]

Using the figures above, and last week's actual results:

I've assumed the same split for CHUK and UKIP as the above had for TBP
There was talk as the results came in that the SNP vote is about 1/3 from leavers - though IIRC that's from the 2017 GE. My feeling this time is that SNP campaigned harder for remain than they did then, and that Farage's new party would also have taken some of their leave voters away. Of course, I also don't know how accurate that "1/3" was; so I rounded it down to 30%; and did the same for Plaid.

The 26,235 difference is way too close to call; and well within the margin of error for any poll; but this has got to be more accurate than lumping all Remain parties and all Leave parties in together.

 

[General Melchett]

Using the figures above, and last week's actual results:

For all the talk of a second referendum, it only goes to show that Remain winning is no foregone conclusion. It's still very tight.