A Political Thread pt. 2

[TRF_Olyy]

Leo Varadkar to step down as Irish prime minister and party leader

Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar became the Republic of Ireland's youngest prime minister in 2017.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Welsh Exile]

Why's he stepping down, what's occurring?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

HMRC reverses decision to close telephone helpline

The move comes less than a day after it said the self-assessment helpline would shut for six months.

www.bbc.co.uk

That is a fast u-turn

 

[General Melchett]

Why's he stepping down, what's occurring?

Reminds me of Sturgeon's resignation which means there could be an incoming scandal or maybe he's just had enough and wants a break.

 

[ncurd]

There's little enthusiasm for Starmer but there's a lot of enthusiasm for a change.

I wanted to do some diggin on this

So Starmer has maintained for the past year about a 37-40% approval rating. But has a real strong don't care at about 30-35%

This is not dissimilar Johnson but he occasionally broke to 50% approval, but neutrals hovered around 15%
Corbyns approvals were top 45% (post 2017 election) but descended to 18-20% but his mean was about 30%
May about 50% as well.
Cameron is was 40% whilst Milliband was about 20% topping out at about 35% just before the election.

Sadly we don't have leadership polling from Brown/Blair to see what a "popular" Labour leader looks like.

But it looks like to me enthusiasm is there and its unlikely any leader unless with a real pivot issue like Brexit or superbly charismatic top out at about where Starmer is.

I'm reminded in discourse there was tons more enthuiasm for Corbyn but polling shows in reality the public hated his guts.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Reminds me of Sturgeon's resignation which means there could be an incoming scandal or maybe he's just had enough and wants a break.

Is it linked to the referendum thing a few weeks ago?

Didn't really understand what it was about (rewording some legal definitions on family?) but from what I gather it was a pretty big defeat for the government

 

[ncurd]

Is it linked to the referendum thing a few weeks ago?

Didn't really understand what it was about (rewording some legal definitions on family?) but from what I gather it was a pretty big defeat for the government

It was about not defining families being defined as only existing by marriage.

The other was removing gendered language so "mothers" being the only people responsible for care in home and to change that to the family as a whole.

I have zero idea reading the proposed text change why there would be objection but you know "conservatives", and it went against polling by a massive value so looks like low turnout was the major cause.

March 2024 Irish constitutional referendums - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Amiga500]

I have zero idea reading the proposed text change why there would be objection but you know "conservatives", and it went against polling by a massive value so looks like low turnout was the major cause.

March 2024 Irish constitutional referendums - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Dunno on low turnout being sole cause.

If you run the numbers, assuming every single extra vote was in favour, then you need a turnout of 60.06%.

Of the prior 24 referendums, only 3 have had a turnout in excess of that.

 

[ncurd]

Dunno on low turnout being sole cause.

If you run the numbers, assuming every single extra vote was in favour, then you need a turnout of 60.06%.

Of the prior 24 referendums, only 3 have had a turnout in excess of that.

Yeah quiet don't knows also an issue. I'm no expert on Irish poltics why was this wording so vehemently rejected? It feels uncontroversial to me and just common sense.

 

[Al Bangor]

 

[Which Tyler]

May election as good as confirmed.
Laurence Robertson (my absentee MP) has started advertising on social media and even done a radio interview - unheard of outside of election season.

About the only thing he's got to boast about is a desire to prevent smuggling in of poor breed-stock puppys and kittens, but that's what he's running with.
Even then, I suspect it's because "smuggling living beings in from the continent = bad", as his voting record on animal welfare is pretty poor IIRC.


Given that, of course, it's always worth reminding people that actions speak louder than words - you can look up your own MP's record here: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/

 

[Saintjay]

May election as good as confirmed.
Laurence Robertson (my absentee MP) has started advertising on social media and even done a radio interview - unheard of outside of election season.

About the only thing he's got to boast about is a desire to prevent smuggling in of poor breed-stock puppys and kittens, but that's what he's running with.
Even then, I suspect it's because "smuggling living beings in from the continent = bad", as his voting record on animal welfare is pretty poor IIRC.


Given that, of course, it's always worth reminding people that actions speak louder than words - you can look up your own MP's record here: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/

May? As in the raft of local elections?

 

[Which Tyler]

General, but not 100% serious (Rishi's the only one who can confirm when)

 

[ncurd]

May? As in the raft of local elections?

He more less ruled it out a few week ago.

Its a double edged sword if you expecting to get killed in locals you might not die as badly in a general election the next day as your voters have better reason to go out and show where you actually are.
On the other it gives less time to recover from exceptionally poor polling data.

But generally the party in power will usually expect to see improved local results if held the same day as a general.

 

[Groundhog]

Just on the referendums as someone who reluctantly voted in them, the 'No No' result was entirely a failure of the govt. Polling months out was strongly yes and the government took for granted it would be an easy win for them. Even opposition parties (bar one) didn't want to go against what looked like a no brainer, most people agree that provision for carers and removing antiquated language from the constitution is a good thing, but the tide turned when public debate actually started in earnest. Some disabilities groups and campaigners came out saying provisions on care were insufficient and achieved nothing and the govt could never give a straight answer on what a 'durable' relationship was. You absolutely had the far right yobbos billing this as an attack on traditional values or whatever, but they were also besieged by some prominent legal professionals questioning the wording of one referendum and citing the danger of experimental language in the constitution and progressive campaigners on the care side saying this was a meaningless gesture and then a huge huge swathe of people (myself included) left confused and unsure what exactly it is we were being asked to vote on.

You of course also have the large element of 'two fingers to the government and the political system at large' which is very much having its moment in Ireland right now as well. That brings me to Varadkar. I do fairly firmly believe he is stepping down because its all become a bit too much rather than any scandal, although I may be proven wrong, I've heard no rumblings. To be honest I think he has his eyes on a prominent and more lucrative role abroad. Varadkar is very unpopular at this moment in time and on the face of it 'leaving because he's not the right person' seems a good reason, but in reality he probably wants to get out while the going is ok. His party is going to get slaughtered in the next election. You can question how fair this is, but he sits atop a not well liked coalition government, has never delivered a good election result for his party and he's now synonymous with our housing and healthcare crisis.

The rub of that is that the opposition is also not doing very hot right now. Sinn Fein were flying high, but they're in freefall a bit, with their stance or lack thereof on immigration being a killer for them.

I do think Ireland has a simmering and slowly growing right winger element, with strong links to similar UK headcases, but they're still not near breaking into the political mainstream. Something to keep an eye on though.

 

[ncurd]

Some disabilities groups and campaigners came out saying provisions on care were insufficient and achieved nothing

Ah yes that old bug bear helped kill the AV in the UK, its better but not good enough so we are against it.

The left love that one.

 

[Saintjay]

He more less ruled it out a few week ago.

Its a double edged sword if you expecting to get killed in locals you might not die as badly in a general election the next day as your voters have better reason to go out and show where you actually are.
On the other it gives less time to recover from exceptionally poor polling data.

But generally the party in power will usually expect to see improved local results if held the same day as a general.

That was kind of my thinking. A general panic will kick in with the Tories if they get the expected 'kicking' in the May locals. Then it'll be straight into campaigning for an autumn GE. I don't see it before then. May would be far to soon.

 

[Which Tyler]

Ah yes that old bug bear helped kill the AV in the UK, its better but not good enough so we are against it.

The left love that one.

See so many people leaving the labour party - and I don't mean resigning their membership, but refusing to even hold their noses and vote labour if it's the best way to keep a tory out of their local seat.
The left absolutely loves to cut its nose off to spite its face!

Splitters!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I live in a Tory stronghold and Labour has next to zero chance of getting elected. They couldn't even do it in 1997. I am going to look more closely at their manifesto this year though. It's going to be between them, Lib Dems or Greens who are going to get my vote.

I get a Tory canvasser on my doorstep I'll tell them exactly why I won't be voting for them.

 

[ncurd]

I live in a Tory stronghold and Labour has next to zero chance of getting elected. They couldn't even do it in 1997. I am going to look more closely at their manifesto this year though. It's going to be between them, Lib Dems or Greens who are going to get my vote.

I get a Tory canvasser on my doorstep I'll tell them exactly why I won't be voting for them.

I think there some seats where it really doesn't matter. But this is definitely one of those to do proper research based on 1997, 2010 & 2015 and see what was closest.