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A Political Thread pt. 2

Ragey Erasmus said:
It makes you wonder, if Israel wipe Gaza and the west bank off the map, will they stop there? Historically the people who engage in this sort of expansionism don't stop after getting what they initially wanted...
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It also risks expansionism/conflict in the middle east & in other parts of the world and makes the US and the west look like hypocrites after their condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration is weak AF here. Netanyahu knows that the US election will be very tight and that if the US pulls back from supporting Israel then it will gift Trump the Whitehouse. Netanyahu is taking full advantage of the situation.

I saw an Israeli political commentator being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he said that "Jewish supremacy" is a major thing now and is being pushed by the far right Govt in Israel. As soon as the Israeli Govt get criticised for their actions they wheel out the "Israel has the right to defend itself/we are the victims narrative". I think taking Gaza and the West Bank is now the end game - they will say it's the only way they can "defeat Hamas" even if it means displacing millions of Palestinians.
 
Ragey Erasmus said:
It makes you wonder, if Israel wipe Gaza and the west bank off the map, will they stop there? Historically the people who engage in this sort of expansionism don't stop after getting what they initially wanted...
Click to expand...
Also shows the priorities of the different groups. Palestinians are literally just wanting to survive and Israeli's are trying to get a good deal on beach front properties...
 
Reiser99 said:
Also shows the priorities of the different groups. Palestinians are literally just wanting to survive and Israeli's are trying to get a good deal on beach front properties...
Click to expand...
This reads like you're willing to make a distinction between Hamas and Palestinians but not between Israeli's and Israel's government.

Genuine apologies of I've misinterpreted this and when you said "Isreal" you meant Netenyahu/government.

My understanding is that Netenyahu is not massively popular in Isreal. Support for the war against Hamas is generally popular amongst Isrealis but not for him per se. The worrying thing about that is that it is in Netenyahu's interests to drag this out for as long as he can if he's worried he won't be able to hang onto power.
 
Welsh Exile said:
This reads like you're willing to make a distinction between Hamas and Palestinians but not between Israeli's and Israel's government.

Genuine apologies of I've misinterpreted this and when you said "Isreal" you meant Netenyahu/government.

My understanding is that Netenyahu is not massively popular in Isreal. Support for the war against Hamas is generally popular amongst Isrealis but not for him per se. The worrying thing about that is that it is in Netenyahu's interests to drag this out for as long as he can if he's worried he won't be able to hang onto power.
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I said Israeli's not Israel. Yes it's a generalisation and not all Israeli's will be queuing up for property, but it shows what each side is going through in general in the war.
 
Reiser99 said:
I said Israeli's not Israel. Yes it's a generalisation and not all Israeli's will be queuing up for property, but it shows what each side is going through in general in the war.
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I don't think that's a very helpful generalisation. Just as it would not be helpful to generalise most Palestinians as being Hamas. After all, Hamas don't want to "just survive" do they, they want a lot more October 7ths if necessary leading to a mass expulsion/execution of Jews from the area and a Palestinian state installed, from river to the sea.
 
General Melchett said:
It also risks expansionism/conflict in the middle east & in other parts of the world and makes the US and the west look like hypocrites after their condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration is weak AF here. Netanyahu knows that the US election will be very tight and that if the US pulls back from supporting Israel then it will gift Trump the Whitehouse. Netanyahu is taking full advantage of the situation.

I saw an Israeli political commentator being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he said that "Jewish supremacy" is a major thing now and is being pushed by the far right Govt in Israel. As soon as the Israeli Govt get criticised for their actions they wheel out the "Israel has the right to defend itself/we are the victims narrative". I think taking Gaza and the West Bank is now the end game - they will say it's the only way they can "defeat Hamas" even if it means displacing millions of Palestinians.
Click to expand...
If it's true that their end game is Gaza (and I wouldn't rule it out) then how sad that is as it shows even with what little progress that has been made over the last 20 years or so, is just regressing at a severe rate and this plays right into the hands of Hamas and Netenyahu.

I have no time for Netenyahu, but Isreal pulling out of Gaza in 2005 shows that, imo, most people in Isreal, at its core, just want to be left in peace and can live next to a neighbouring Arab state. You can see this not just in 2005 when they pulled out of Gaza but also with Camp David and even before at its inception in 48 with the UN partition plan. I think initially they were even happy to have an Arab minority of 40% living within Israel which was refused. There's only one side that consistently refuse deals/come to the table and it's historically it's not been Isreal. You could say why should Palestinians/Hamas move from their 1 state objective but it's not realistic at all.

I listened to (half listened to) a 4 hour plus debate with a Jewish historian called Benny Morris and Norm Finklestein (and a couple of others in a Lex Fridman podcast) , it was a pretty bad debate, lots of name calling but one thing i wasn't aware of (that could be untrue obviously as I have not researched it myself) was the pro Isreal side was arguing that displacing or transferring Arabs was not inbuilt into the Zionist project from the start and only really came about as a response of war and being attacked by neighbouring Arab countries. Again not sure how true that is or even how relevant that is now as I think it's hard to argue that Netenyahu isn't expansionist now which as I said at the start of my post, sad as we seem to be regressing further and further with not even a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
 
Trump's son in law Jarrod Kushner made comments recently about how the coastline would be ideal for waterfront properties. He's a Jewish property tycoon.
Welsh Exile said:
If it's true that their end game is Gaza (and I wouldn't rule it out) then how sad that is as it shows even with what little progress that has been made over the last 20 years or so, is just regressing at a severe rate and this plays right into the hands of Hamas and Netenyahu.

I have no time for Netenyahu, but Isreal pulling out of Gaza in 2005 shows that, imo, most people in Isreal, at its core, just want to be left in peace and can live next to a neighbouring Arab state. You can see this not just in 2005 when they pulled out of Gaza but also with Camp David and even before at its inception in 48 with the UN partition plan. I think initially they were even happy to have an Arab minority of 40% living within Israel which was refused. There's only one side that consistently refuse deals/come to the table and it's historically it's not been Isreal. You could say why should Palestinians/Hamas move from their 1 state objective but it's not realistic at all.

I listened to (half listened to) a 4 hour plus debate with a Jewish historian called Benny Morris and Norm Finklestein (and a couple of others in a Lex Fridman podcast) , it was a pretty bad debate, lots of name calling but one thing i wasn't aware of (that could be untrue obviously as I have not researched it myself) was the pro Isreal side was arguing that displacing or transferring Arabs was not inbuilt into the Zionist project from the start and only really came about as a response of war and being attacked by neighbouring Arab countries. Again not sure how true that is or even how relevant that is now as I think it's hard to argue that Netenyahu isn't expansionist now which as I said at the start of my post, sad as we seem to be regressing further and further with not even a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
Click to expand...

Yeah the problem isn't Israel - it's Netanyahu and his far right cronies. Forcibly taking Gaza without a peace agreement might be a 'win' in Netanyahu's eyes but it won't bring about closure in the wider community - this will surely rage on for years especially as even the US continues to support a two state solution. There are plenty outside of Israel who will never accept Israel grabbing Gaza as a permanent solution and if I were an Israeli I'd be very nervous about venturing outside the country because Netanyahu will have put a target on their backs. I'm sure there are enough idiotic terrorists out there who are happy to overlook the atrocities committed by Hamas and will sadly view innocent Israelis (outside of Israel) as fair game if Israel grabs Gaza and displaces the Palestinians.
 
General Melchett said:
Trump's son in law Jarrod Kushner made comments recently about how the coastline would be ideal for waterfront properties. He's a Jewish property tycoon.


Yeah the problem isn't Israel - it's Netanyahu and his far right cronies. Forcibly taking Gaza without a peace agreement might be a 'win' in Netanyahu's eyes but it won't bring about closure in the wider community - this will surely rage on for years especially as even the US continues to support a two state solution. There are plenty outside of Israel who will never accept Israel grabbing Gaza as a permanent solution and if I were an Israeli I'd be very nervous about venturing outside the country because Netanyahu will have put a target on their backs. I'm sure there are enough idiotic terrorists out there who are happy to overlook the atrocities committed by Hamas and will sadly view innocent Israelis (outside of Israel) as fair game if Israel grabs Gaza and displaces the Palestinians.
Click to expand...
If they full on take over Gaza at the end of this campaign I think that will be an eye opener for a lot of people, well, for me at least.

Surely at that point you'd see Egypt opens its borders but I guess if they haven't done so now with everything g that is going on they are unlikely to in the event Isreal take Gaza back.

Hopefully Netenyahu is gone by that point as he's apparently not doing well in the polls over there.
 
Welsh Exile said:
If they full on take over Gaza at the end of this campaign I think that will be an eye opener for a lot of people, well, for me at least.

Surely at that point you'd see Egypt opens its borders but I guess if they haven't done so now with everything g that is going on they are unlikely to in the event Isreal take Gaza back.

Hopefully Netenyahu is gone by that point as he's apparently not doing well in the polls over there.
Click to expand...

Egypt opening their borders now would likely cost their leadership politically as they'd come under fire in the region (and domestically) for ceding to Israel not to mention the economic cost of taking on all those refugees. If it happens later on down the line then I imagine there would some of kind of deal where Israel coughs up $$ but I'm not sure that Bibi would even agree to that.
 
US abstained on a resolution calling for a ceasefire so Israel going into full on tail wagging the dog mode and trying to attack the US over it. TBH apparently there is little in the resolution condemning Hamas and Israel is the target of more UN resolutions than any other country, so it is kinda understandable that the US vetoes a lot of the stuff against them. However there is no way they could possibly think they could act with impunity and engage in a massive land grab, particularly with the similar situation in Ukraine, and not face pushback.
 
Also, at this point, as much as I think any ceasefire should be dependent on the release of the hostages it just isn't going to happen. I'll be amazed if most of them aren't dead anyway.
 
I see Netanyahu has cancelled a trip to Washington after today's UN vote. It's turning into a game of chess between the US and Israel and you get the feeling that they're running out of moves before a public falling out happens. Won't happen but Biden should tell the fat war monger that if he's prepared to send American military into Rafah to start hand delivering aid.
 
Austerity was supposed to get control of the public finances but we ended up with record levels of debt.

Leaving the EU was supposed to take back control of our borders but immigration has gone up and the situation in the channel is worse.
 

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