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Considering the Sage drama from a couple days ago, a lot of people are pretty rightly questioning the modelling
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Help Support The Rugby Forum :
A Political Thread pt. 2
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What drama?
Either I've mossed something, or it was Sage being VERY concerned about Omicron, and deniers denied any concern; and have decided that Sage are just after their 15 minutes of fame, and therefore shouldn't be listened to - as politicians are much more trustworthy, and have greater expertise than experts giving expert advice.
See members of Sage sounding very worried on TV, and MPs telling them to get back in their box.
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My Twitter conversation with the chairman of the Sage Covid modelling committee
The latest Sage papers have been published, envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get — up to and very much including another lockdown. Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of...
www.spectator.co.uk
That explains what started it. Lots of MPs were quite vocally angry that they had felt like they weren't in the loop
I believe he's read some Spectator bullcrap
My Twitter conversation with the chairman of the Sage Covid modelling committee
The latest Sage papers have been published, envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get — up to and very much including another lockdown. Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of...
www.spectator.co.uk
Essentially Nelson though he had amazing gotcha because they didn't model if Omicron is actually less virulent. But that doesn't help decision makers much as these would preventetive measures without that information so the models have to be for average to worse case scenarios. The what if Omicron did **** all scenario they are creating a drama doesn't provide any useful information because we all know if Omicron was significantly less virulent there would be no need for further measures, so why spend your time computing the model for it.
But yeah politicians/journalists trying to play down COVID again @Which Tyler has infograph for that.
Actually, I have 2. If it was just 1, then I'd wheel it out every 6 months, as it is, I get to alternate every 3 months.
Otherwise though, yes; idiots who don't understand nuance and prefer a comforting lie to a harsh truth, and can't read science beyond the abstract - spread lies based on hope rather than evidence, but claim that it's based on evidence, because they have some fairly flimsy and nuanced evidence that isn't really applicable.
So, it looks like Omicron is less deadly than Delta - but we don't actually know that and there are too many confounders (as discusse dhere I think - though I do lose track of where I have which conversations), even with that, it's thought to be somewhere in the regions of 2/3 as deadly.
So Sage allow for that, but also allow fir it not actually translating, and model for both.
Deniers then see "Omicron is less deadly than Delta" and shout "Omicron isn't deadly - pandemic is over, huzzah!" and smear the scientists for not agreeing with them.
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Have you looked at the history of what that particular journalist writes? I'll give you a clue, he said the threat of covid was over in JUNE 2020. He has a track record of opposing every lockdown, of minimising the impact of covid, of dismissing what the scientists have said and now his "proof" is a Twitter spat in which he misrepresents a topic he had no knowledge of and to which the sage modeller says the conclusions he is drawing are incorrect.My Twitter conversation with the chairman of the Sage Covid modelling committee
The latest Sage papers have been published, envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get — up to and very much including another lockdown. Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of...
That explains what started it. Lots of MPs were quite vocally angry that they had felt like they weren't in the loop
Yeah, zero due diligence from either him or anyone quoting that article. I've already got in an argument with my friend about this. FFS the media is all lies until they say something that conforms with your belief. Check this stuff and in particular check those who post this before you just blindly run with it.
I mean I didn't need to once the Spectator and anti-lockdown came into view it was pretty obvious where it was going. The Spectator sadly isn't much more than high class right-wing confirmation bias rag these days. I don't actually know the last time they actually had some decent journalism that was worth reading or they broke a genuine story.
Its frustrating, if you know anyone at the genuine coalface of this they within the scientific/medical community they are all completely burnt out and have been for the best part of this year. Its never really stopped for them and been working regular 12 hour days for since essentially January last year when stuff started going down in Wuhan. So when people try to belittle them or think they have suddenly managed to disprove their entire academedia and profession cultivated over decades in a few twitter paragraphs.
Trust the scientists, **** the politicians/press.
Kunnersberg to leave as BBC political editor
www.theguardian.com
I do think like Hislop in below interview that her job title is vastly overstated in the USA her actual job would 'BBC White House Reporter", so her actual impact is very minimal the News Director is a far more important role. We also know the actual investigative arms are the Panorama and Newsnight staff. Still have decided she wasn't fit for purpose when she described as the doors were being breached on the Capitol building it as a facas.
Laura Kuenssberg to step down as BBC political editor at Easter
Kuenssberg says she will ‘miss daily drama’ as BBC confirms she will take a senior presenting and reporting role
I do think like Hislop in below interview that her job title is vastly overstated in the USA her actual job would 'BBC White House Reporter", so her actual impact is very minimal the News Director is a far more important role. We also know the actual investigative arms are the Panorama and Newsnight staff. Still have decided she wasn't fit for purpose when she described as the doors were being breached on the Capitol building it as a facas.
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I read the same phrase used in a summary of an interview with Javid. Either it's poor English, or it belies a total lack of understanding of the situation. They've gone from "following the science" (if we ever did) to "questioning the data. I don't see why anyone, particularly in government would question data gathered by people who they are in charge of. Interpreting it and making predictions based upon it is far from an exact science, so question that, but the data itself?
Indeed. Don't forget that he was the architect of Eat Out To Normalise Dangerous Behaviour which contributed to the need for tht lockdown.
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Sir David Amess: Ali Harbi Ali pleads not guilty to murdering MP
Sir David Amess, an MP since 1983, was stabbed while holding a constituency surgery in Essex in October.
www.bbc.co.uk
This will be an exciting defence feel sorry for the poor barrister drawn up for duty on this one.
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Scotland joining Wales in defacto forcing sport behind closed doors.
Makes very little sense
Makes very little sense
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Not really. They are still congregate settings despite being outdoors. Peeps in close proximity to each other singing /chanting without masks spreads it via aerosols and droplets.
Had a work colleague who caught Covid at Italy v Spain semi at the Euros before his first jab. Luckily recovered. See also how it spread during Liverpool v A. Madrid game last year.
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I'm not sure it's the match itself that's the problem as much people getting there and back, and under current rules, crowding into pubs and eateries.
Would definitely say with my last weeks trip to cinema didn't feel so good with the crowding after the film had finished rather than during.
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