Ok OK OK... so this year's 6N I'm going to revert to when I was living in Scotland, and the perpetual optimism reared it's head pre tournament, before the inevitable happened...
Firstly, I've watched a LOT of club rugby this year, and there are 2.5 very common themes when Welsh clubs play non clubs.
1. Lack of physicality. Cardiff and Dragons were absolutely demolished up front last weekend, and all 4 regions have been on the end of batterings in the contact area, sadly regularly.
2. The inability to make decisions under pressure. Welsh clubs constantly butcher chances, and crumble in either 22 of the pitch. They bite in and track the wrong players in defence, and they fail to execute 2 on 1s, get try line fever, and worst of all fail to use advantages.
2.5 every Welsh club this season, when not playing another Welsh team has lost the kicking battle. Costelow, Lloyd, Edward's, Sheedy, Angus o Brien have all proved a problem kicking out of hand, at goal, restarting, and defensively. ESPECIALLY DEFENCIVELY!!! Bevan, Hardy, RMW, Rhodri, and Co are box kicking more than other 9s, because their 10s don't have distance.
So, with no beef up front, no ability to play under pressure, and no kicking game, how do Wales beat France first up?
The easy answer is they don't, I don't think they can win, however, Cardiff, Ospreys and Scarlets all have found ways to win games recently, with all these problems...
Cardiff and Scarlets have powder puff packs, beaten at scrum time, and no lineout. Worrying, but they've both managed these issues this season, and surprisingly scored tries off these non set peices lol, and scored tries regularly!!! Even the Ospreys under Jones are now scoring tries, and varied tries, not just catch and drives, but first phase, and broken play.
Take Ospreys B playing a good Benneton team recently, out muscled but Ospreys played in the right areas and piled pressure on to canter to victory.
So Wales need to mitigate the French packs massive power advantage, don't give away cheap field position, or cheap penalties. If Wales can manage this they are in the game.
Most importantly, if Wales manage this they also take out this ridiculous backline. Superior athletes, with more experience, regularly winning, will absolutely destroy Wales if given a platform, even a half platform.
Wales have to come out hard, play on the wider shoulders, while avoiding mistakes, show no fear and make the French question their dominance, or better still questioning each other. Wales also need to stay in the fight, remain ahead or within 7 until the latter stages, the French, or more specifically the French replacements will tense up, and when that happens, the miracle in Paris is on!