[2018 Rugby Championship] Round 4: New Zealand v South Africa (15/09/2018)

Discussion in 'The Rugby Championship 2019' started by TRF_heineken, Sep 10, 2018.

  1. TRF_heineken

    TRF_heineken RIP #J9

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2010
    Messages:
    11,221
    Location:
    Polokwane, South Africa
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    South Africa

    Not seeing us winning this, just hope we don't get thrashed like last year by 57-0. Hoping Pollard's yips are gone.

    Still not convinced by our loose trio and Mostert, but then again, here's hoping everyone makes a step up like we know they can against the AB's.
     
  2. Forum Ad Advertisement

  3. mosfeldt

    mosfeldt Academy Player

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    181
    Country Flag:

    Ireland

    Club or Nation:

    Munster

    Hate saying it but I see a very emphatic NZ win. Maybe not a total nilling like last year, but I would imagine NZ are going to beat the Boks by about 25+ points. The Boks will look ok in the first 30 minutes, scoring a try or two, but that's it.

    :(
     
  4. TRF_heineken

    TRF_heineken RIP #J9

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2010
    Messages:
    11,221
    Location:
    Polokwane, South Africa
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    South Africa

    My fear is the first 30 minutes in that we've been awful the first 30 all year, NZ storming to a very comfortable lead and us trying to play catch-up rugby again like against England during their tour to SA. Last week was probably the only game we were good the first 30 and crap the last 50...
     
  5. SomeOke

    SomeOke First XV

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    1,630
    Location:
    Cape Town
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    Stormers

    Shag reckons we're favourites, classic Shag... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
     
  6. unrated

    unrated First XV

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,181
    Location:
    KZN
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    Sharks

    Jessie Kriel at wing doesn't look good, but then again it was between him and Kolbe and i'd rather start the more physical player. Still though the selectors ****** up by not including a wing cover.
    I would have played Esterhuizen with Kriel as my centre combination in which case Kolbe would go to wing.

    Lastly why is the media so silent about Duane not being included? Were they just guessing originally and now that it did not happen they are just sweeping it under the rug?
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. TRF_heineken

    TRF_heineken RIP #J9

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2010
    Messages:
    11,221
    Location:
    Polokwane, South Africa
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    South Africa

    I don't see a big issue with Jesse on the wing, if anything, he'll be defensively better than Mapimpi/Kolbe/Nkosi, while we don't lose so much pace with him.

    As for Duane, Maybe they were misinformed of which NZ fixture he would be available for. Perhaps they meant to say the fixture in SA and not in NZ? But yeah, it does seem strange that there's radio silence about Duane's involvement.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. mdaclarke

    mdaclarke Bench Player

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2015
    Messages:
    574
    Country Flag:

    Wales

    Club or Nation:

    Wales

    I wonder what he'e been smoking!!
     
  9. mania

    mania First XV

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,300
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Samoa

    kiwi's never ever underestimate the boks. the respect for our most honoured of enemies is stratospheric
    despite boks ranking, most kiwi's will tell you that the litmus test of whether you have an international rugby future or not is still to play against saffa teams. boks is the baptism by fire. no body fears playing aussie, england or ireland.
     
  10. Derpus

    Derpus Bench Player

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2017
    Messages:
    687
    Country Flag:

    Australia

    Club or Nation:

    Waratahs

    Fixed. Face reality mate. The rest of us are. You won 57 - 0 this fixture last year.
     
  11. mania

    mania First XV

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,300
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Samoa

    Lol. Yeah nah no ones ever been scared of facing the WBs
     
  12. Derpus

    Derpus Bench Player

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2017
    Messages:
    687
    Country Flag:

    Australia

    Club or Nation:

    Waratahs

    Did you even read my post? At no point did i say anyone was.
     
  13. Steeler

    Steeler Academy Player

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2018
    Messages:
    151
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Manawatu

    depends on ur generation as well, aus were once feared, the era of dominance late 90's early 00's was particuarly dark period for the AB's, I'd say from 99-2003 was one of our worst era's of rugby ever and one of aus best.

    boks are no longer the force they were, but on their day they can beat the AB's in SA, that's still the hardest fixture for us in the RC, playing away to the Bok.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Ospervat

    Ospervat Academy Player

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    445
    Location:
    UK
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Plymouth

    Just had a little play on github rankings to see how a SA loss would impact. I discovered a loss won’t impact on the SA ranking points at all. Huh?
    That’s a first!!!!!
    I can’t seem to find info on why this is the case.
    Is it because of the ranking points difference being more than 10 or ranking position difference greater than 5 or some other explanation?
    Can anybody offer some insights.?
     
  15. SomeOke

    SomeOke First XV

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    1,630
    Location:
    Cape Town
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    Stormers

    Yeah the rating gap is just to high NZ are on 94.52 + 3 for home advantage gives them 97.52 we sit on 81.35 I believe rating gaps of more than 12 elicit no change, we might be able to lose points at home when we get the +3 home advantage.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  16. Ospervat

    Ospervat Academy Player

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2015
    Messages:
    445
    Location:
    UK
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Plymouth

    Thanks for that.
     
  17. Brigantine

    Brigantine Bench Player

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    769
    Location:
    Auckland
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Japan

    10 points is the cutoff. The only way the All Blacks can earn RP at home atm is if we're playing Ireland.

    To go through an example, (or see WR's graphs here - near the end), in round 1 it was Australia on 84.48 +3 = 87.48 vs NZ on 93.99. NZ only earn points once the opponent is above 83.99. Australia was above 83.99 by 3.49 RP - so NZ won 15% x 3.49 = 0.524 RP. (It's 15% when the winning margin is 15+, otherwise 10%)

    If South Africa don't beat Australia next round, (and if the ABs keep winning), there'll be no RP on the table for the All Blacks in any fixture until the 3rd Bledisloe test in Tokyo in October. (and if Argentina then beat Australia in Salta, NZ would have to wait until Twickenham in November)

    FWIW Australia can't win any points off Argentina today either. Australia is 84.45. Plus home advantage brings them to 87.45. They can only gain points once their opponent is above 77.45, and Argentina is only at 77.02.

    EDIT: I just noticed, even *after* Chicago (November 2016) NZ were still at 94.57 RP - higher than the 94.52 we're on now. There's no recovery happening for the All Blacks.
    Though TBF 2016 was just an artifact of the unusual way the RWC 2015 QFs turned out, with all the RP concentrated in the TRC - 88.92 on average.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  18. Bean

    Bean BANNED!!!

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2014
    Messages:
    340
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Chiefs

    Predicting a record win to NZ here. 100pt+.
     
  19. eidde

    eidde Academy Player

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Messages:
    59
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Hawke's Bay

    Brilliantly informative, clearly set out explanation. Thanks Brigantine.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  20. TRF_heineken

    TRF_heineken RIP #J9

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2010
    Messages:
    11,221
    Location:
    Polokwane, South Africa
    Country Flag:

    South Africa

    Club or Nation:

    South Africa

    When are the Springboks kicking off??












    Every 5 minutes...
     
  21. TommiG88

    TommiG88 First XV

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2014
    Messages:
    2,945
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Northampton

    Oh dear.
     
Enjoyed this thread? Register to post your reply - click here!

Share This Page

-->