[2018 Rugby Championship] Round 4: New Zealand v South Africa (15/09/2018)

[TRF_heineken]

Not seeing us winning this, just hope we don't get thrashed like last year by 57-0. Hoping Pollard's yips are gone.

Still not convinced by our loose trio and Mostert, but then again, here's hoping everyone makes a step up like we know they can against the AB's.

 

[mosfeldt]

Hate saying it but I see a very emphatic NZ win. Maybe not a total nilling like last year, but I would imagine NZ are going to beat the Boks by about 25+ points. The Boks will look ok in the first 30 minutes, scoring a try or two, but that's it.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Hate saying it but I see a very emphatic NZ win. Maybe not a total nilling like last year, but I would imagine NZ are going to beat the Boks by about 25+ points. The Boks will look ok in the first 30 minutes, scoring a try or two, but that's it.

My fear is the first 30 minutes in that we've been awful the first 30 all year, NZ storming to a very comfortable lead and us trying to play catch-up rugby again like against England during their tour to SA. Last week was probably the only game we were good the first 30 and crap the last 50...

 

[SomeOke]

Shag reckons we're favourites, classic Shag...

 

[unrated]

Jessie Kriel at wing doesn't look good, but then again it was between him and Kolbe and i'd rather start the more physical player. Still though the selectors ****** up by not including a wing cover.
I would have played Esterhuizen with Kriel as my centre combination in which case Kolbe would go to wing.

Lastly why is the media so silent about Duane not being included? Were they just guessing originally and now that it did not happen they are just sweeping it under the rug?

 

[TRF_heineken]

Jessie Kriel at wing doesn't look good, but then again it was between him and Kolbe and i'd rather start the more physical player. Still though the selectors ****** up by not including a wing cover.
I would have played Esterhuizen with Kriel as my centre combination in which case Kolbe would go to wing.

Lastly why is the media so silent about Duane not being included? Were they just guessing originally and now that it did not happen they are just sweeping it under the rug?

I don't see a big issue with Jesse on the wing, if anything, he'll be defensively better than Mapimpi/Kolbe/Nkosi, while we don't lose so much pace with him.

As for Duane, Maybe they were misinformed of which NZ fixture he would be available for. Perhaps they meant to say the fixture in SA and not in NZ? But yeah, it does seem strange that there's radio silence about Duane's involvement.

 

[mdaclarke]

Shag reckons we're favourites, classic Shag...

I wonder what he'e been smoking!!

 

[mania]

I wonder what he'e been smoking!!

kiwi's never ever underestimate the boks. the respect for our most honoured of enemies is stratospheric
despite boks ranking, most kiwi's will tell you that the litmus test of whether you have an international rugby future or not is still to play against saffa teams. boks is the baptism by fire. no body fears playing aussie, england or ireland.

 

[Derpus]

kiwi's never ever underestimate the boks. the respect for our most honoured of enemies is stratospheric
despite boks ranking, most kiwi's will tell you that the litmus test of whether you have an international rugby future or not was to play against saffa teams. boks was the baptism by fire. no body fears playing aussie, england, south africa or ireland.

Fixed. Face reality mate. The rest of us are. You won 57 - 0 this fixture last year.

 

[mania]

Fixed. Face reality mate. The rest of us are. You won 57 - 0 this fixture last year.

Lol. Yeah nah no ones ever been scared of facing the WBs

 

[Derpus]

Lol. Yeah nah no ones ever been scared of facing the WBs

Did you even read my post? At no point did i say anyone was.

 

[Steeler]

kiwi's never ever underestimate the boks. the respect for our most honoured of enemies is stratospheric
despite boks ranking, most kiwi's will tell you that the litmus test of whether you have an international rugby future or not is still to play against saffa teams. boks is the baptism by fire. no body fears playing aussie, england or ireland.

depends on ur generation as well, aus were once feared, the era of dominance late 90's early 00's was particuarly dark period for the AB's, I'd say from 99-2003 was one of our worst era's of rugby ever and one of aus best.

boks are no longer the force they were, but on their day they can beat the AB's in SA, that's still the hardest fixture for us in the RC, playing away to the Bok.

 

[Ospervat]

Just had a little play on github rankings to see how a SA loss would impact. I discovered a loss won't impact on the SA ranking points at all. Huh?
That's a first!!!!!
I can't seem to find info on why this is the case.
Is it because of the ranking points difference being more than 10 or ranking position difference greater than 5 or some other explanation?
Can anybody offer some insights.?

 

[SomeOke]

Yeah the rating gap is just to high NZ are on 94.52 + 3 for home advantage gives them 97.52 we sit on 81.35 I believe rating gaps of more than 12 elicit no change, we might be able to lose points at home when we get the +3 home advantage.

 

[Ospervat]

Yeah the rating gap is just to high NZ are on 94.52 + 3 for home advantage gives them 97.52 we sit on 81.35 I believe rating gaps of more than 12 elicit no change, we might be able to lose points at home when we get the +3 home advantage.

Thanks for that.

 

[Brigantine]

rating gaps of more than 12 elicit no change

10 points is the cutoff. The only way the All Blacks can earn RP at home atm is if we're playing Ireland.

To go through an example, (or see WR's graphs here - near the end), in round 1 it was Australia on 84.48 +3 = 87.48 vs NZ on 93.99. NZ only earn points once the opponent is above 83.99. Australia was above 83.99 by 3.49 RP - so NZ won 15% x 3.49 = 0.524 RP. (It's 15% when the winning margin is 15+, otherwise 10%)

If South Africa don't beat Australia next round, (and if the ABs keep winning), there'll be no RP on the table for the All Blacks in any fixture until the 3rd Bledisloe test in Tokyo in October. (and if Argentina then beat Australia in Salta, NZ would have to wait until Twickenham in November)

FWIW Australia can't win any points off Argentina today either. Australia is 84.45. Plus home advantage brings them to 87.45. They can only gain points once their opponent is above 77.45, and Argentina is only at 77.02.

EDIT: I just noticed, even *after* Chicago (November 2016) NZ were still at 94.57 RP - higher than the 94.52 we're on now. There's no recovery happening for the All Blacks.
Though TBF 2016 was just an artifact of the unusual way the RWC 2015 QFs turned out, with all the RP concentrated in the TRC - 88.92 on average.

 

[Bean]

Predicting a record win to NZ here. 100pt+.

 

[eidde]

10 points is the cutoff. The only way the All Blacks can earn RP at home atm is if we're playing Ireland.

To go through an example, (or see WR's graphs here - near the end), in round 1 it was Australia on 84.48 +3 = 87.48 vs NZ on 93.99. NZ only earn points once the opponent is above 83.99. Australia was above 83.99 by 3.49 RP - so NZ won 15% x 3.49 = 0.524 RP. (It's 15% when the winning margin is 15+, otherwise 10%)

If South Africa don't beat Australia next round, (and if the ABs keep winning), there'll be no RP on the table for the All Blacks in any fixture until the 3rd Bledisloe test in Tokyo in October. (and if Argentina then beat Australia in Salta, NZ would have to wait until Twickenham in November)

FWIW Australia can't win any points off Argentina today either. Australia is 84.45. Plus home advantage brings them to 87.45. They can only gain points once their opponent is above 77.45, and Argentina is only at 77.02.

EDIT: I just noticed, even *after* Chicago (November 2016) NZ were still at 94.57 RP - higher than the 94.52 we're on now. There's no recovery happening for the All Blacks.
Though TBF 2016 was just an artifact of the unusual way the RWC 2015 QFs turned out, with all the RP concentrated in the TRC - 88.92 on average.

Brilliantly informative, clearly set out explanation. Thanks Brigantine.

 

[TRF_heineken]

When are the Springboks kicking off??












Every 5 minutes...

 

[TommiG88]

Oh dear.