[2017 Super Rugby] Round 6: Lions vs. Sharks (01/04/2017)

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: Emirates Airlines Park
Time: 17:15 CAT (SA, GMT+2)​

Teams

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Madosh Tambwe, 13 Harold Vorster, 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Ruan Ackermann, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Jacques van Rooyen

Substitutes: 16 Akker van der Merwe, 17 Sti Sithole/Corne Fourie, 18 Johannes Jonker/Hencus van Wyk, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Ross Cronje, 22 Jacques Nel, 23 Dillon Smit/Lionel Mapoe

Sharks: TBA

 

[unrated]

This is a big game for the Lions, Sharks and Jaguares. W can assume by now that the wildcard spot is going to a Africa 2 team. As between the J,L,S their PD is only beaten by the Stormers, Chiefs, Crusaders and Hurricanes. Top spot is up for grabs between the top three in Africa 2 and over the next few weekends these teams will be playing each other regularly. Sharks play Lion then Jaguares then rebels and then to Argentina to play the Jaguares again. The Jags play the Sharks, Bulls, Lions , Sharks. The lions fixtures looks very similar.

I dont think the Sharks can beat the lions at home yet but i know we can beat them at Kings Park. With a loss the lions will cement their nr 1 spot on the log but the Sharks will be able to redeem themselves the next weekend when we play Jags at home, a game i believe we should win.

Going to be a tense couple of weeks for these 3 teams in deciding their playoffs fate.

 

[SomeOke]

Lions are still a great side but have shown signs of weakness this year, that said Sharks needs to sort a few issues out. Both with line-ups and strategy, too many box kicks and they need to settle their half-backs (the rest of their backline has been surprisingly good).

For me - start either Inny or April at 10 to get the backline going, with Bosch at 15, Bosch can do all the static kicking (from Tee and for the touch-line). Clement should go back to France. Not sure what to do about Reinach, other than stop asking him to box kick and letting him play his natural game again. I'm not convinced RdP is the right coach but I hope to be proven wrong.

Anyway I'm rooting for the Sharks, prefer them to the Lions purely because their fans are becoming unbearable.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Anyway I'm rooting for the Sharks, prefer them to the Lions purely because their fans are becoming unbearable.

This!!

The Lions probably have the worst fanbase. Yes, even worse than us Bulls supporters.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Sharks play Lion then Jaguares then rebels and then to Argentina to play the Jaguares again. The Jags play the Sharks, Bulls, Lions , Sharks. The lions fixtures looks very similar.

I think we've got an edge here. Imo, Lions are a step above Sharks and Jaguares so my view is that this is a race between Sharks and Jaguares for the #2 spot. With that in mind, i think the fixture favours us.
We have the momentum and the schedule suits us quite nicely. We have a bye next week while the Lions and Sharks tear each other apart, maybe picking up injuries and yc/rcs in the process.
At least on paper, we will have a fresh, confident team against (potentially, granted) tired one that comes from a loss. The game vs the sharks away is THE game for us imo.
And the order also favours us. Bye-Sharks-Bulls-Lions-Sharks. That is close to perfect. We get our best team, fresh vs the Sharks, we see how that works out and field accordingly agains the Bulls, and then i would literally field our entire B-side vs the Lions, just to have another fresh XV to face the Sharks at home. I wouldn't waste resources trying to beat the Lions in Joburg. Tring to get that #1 spot would very likely end up costing us the #2 spot, which, if we plan things properly, we should be able to get.

Sharks do no have it easy, which brings me to my next question: is there any chance of reshuffling the 2 South African conferences? I am asking because if i list them in order this is what i see

Stormers vs Lions
Bulls vs Sharks
Cheetahs vs Jaguares
Sunwolves vs Kings

Conference 2 appears to be stronger in every singe case. What if we switched Jaguares/Sharks for say, Bulls or Cheetahs? Is there any mechanism in place to balance the strength of each conference?
I am asking because i was thinking, what if the Sharks or Jaguares would be in conference 1? That would probably result in a tighter race between #2 from each conference and a tougher schedule for the Stormers, as opposed to having 3 teams slaughtering each other in conference 2 while the Stormers are pretty much guaranteed the #1 spot.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think we've got an edge here. Imo, Lions are a step above Sharks and Jaguares so my view is that this is a race between Sharks and Jaguares for the #2 spot. With that in mind, i think the fixture favours us.
We have the momentum and the schedule suits us quite nicely. We have a bye next week while the Lions and Sharks tear each other apart, maybe picking up injuries and yc/rcs in the process.

The bye isn't always such a good thing, as some teams struggle to get back into rythm after the rest week.

At least on paper, we will have a fresh, confident team against (potentially, granted) tired one that comes from a loss. The game vs the sharks away is THE game for us imo.
And the order also favours us. Bye-Sharks-Bulls-Lions-Sharks. That is close to perfect. We get our best team, fresh vs the Sharks, we see how that works out and field accordingly agains the Bulls, and then i would literally field our entire B-side vs the Lions, just to have another fresh XV to face the Sharks at home. I wouldn't waste resources trying to beat the Lions in Joburg. Tring to get that #1 spot would very likely end up costing us the #2 spot, which, if we plan things properly, we should be able to get.

This sounds a lot like a losing strategy, one that the Lions used when they sent their B-team to Argentina.

And the Bulls are a different beast at home. They were the only unbeaten team at home last year. And so far only had one home game (against the Sunwolves). They play the Chiefs and the Sunwolves the coming weeks, and they they are done touring. From then onwards they remain in SA to play the rest of their games. They also don't have to travel to Argentina.

Sharks do no have it easy, which brings me to my next question: is there any chance of reshuffling the 2 South African conferences? I am asking because if i list them in order this is what i see

Stormers vs Lions
Bulls vs Sharks
Cheetahs vs Jaguares
Sunwolves vs Kings

What's the point? Next year there won't be a conference system anymore (most probably), and some of these teams won't even be part of Super Rugby. So why shuffle? Last year the battle was in the Stormers/Bulls/Cheetahs/Sunwolves group with the Lions being the out and out favourite in the other conference.

Conference 2 appears to be stronger in every singe case. What if we switched Jaguares/Sharks for say, Bulls or Cheetahs? Is there any mechanism in place to balance the strength of each conference?
I am asking because i was thinking, what if the Sharks or Jaguares would be in conference 1? That would probably result in a tighter race between #2 from each conference and a tougher schedule for the Stormers, as opposed to having 3 teams slaughtering each other in conference 2 while the Stormers are pretty much guaranteed the #1 spot.

It's still very early to make that call. But yeah, it seems like Conference 2 is the tougher group this year.

 

[unrated]

At least on paper, we will have a fresh, confident team against (potentially, granted) tired one that comes from a loss. The game vs the sharks away is THE game for us imo.
And the order also favours us. Bye-Sharks-Bulls-Lions-Sharks. That is close to perfect. We get our best team, fresh vs the Sharks, we see how that works out and field accordingly agains the Bulls, and then i would literally field our entire B-side vs the Lions, just to have another fresh XV to face the Sharks at home. I wouldn't waste resources trying to beat the Lions in Joburg. Tring to get that #1 spot would very likely end up costing us the #2 spot, which, if we plan things properly, we should be able to get.

I dont think your coach will have the same mindset as you. He will probably play close to his best starting xv against the lions IMO. The Sharks and Jaguares might even be on the same plane to Buenos Aires. But even then im not counting on the Sharks winning the game against a possibly tired Jags outfit in Argentina.

On the other hand the Sharks vs Jaguares game in durban we will/should win . Apart from the quality in the team, we are a very good side at home and the conditions being humid and wet in durban will count against the style played by the Lions and Jags. Assuming The Sharks win Both the Home games against the Lions and Jags and then lose both away games we will just be in the same position where we are now and it will depend on the results against the rest of the teams to determine who finishes first. Dont count out the possibility that with all these matches against each other in Africa 2 that the Cheetahs or bulls sneak the last wild card spot.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

The bye isn't always such a good thing, as some teams struggle to get back into rythm after the rest week.

Maybe, but given that everyone has to have a bye at some point, if i could pick, i'd have it the week before our biggest game while our opponent has to face their toughest opponent.

This sounds a lot like a losing strategy, one that the Lions used when they sent their B-team to Argentina.

Strategies are a means to achieve a goal. The Lions' goal last season was to win SR and that is why that loss in Buenos Aires cost them so much, as it meant giving away home ground for the final. That choice (fielding a B-team) cost them their goal. Easy to say with hindsight, as they could have very well beaten us too.

Our goal is very, very different: to make it to the play offs. With that in mind, putting our very best against the Lions in Jburg, when we play the Sharks at home the following week doesn't seem smart considering our main competitor for the #2 spot are the Sharks. It's one of the only two games in the season where winning doesn't only give you points but also prevents your main competitor from gaining them. That's how important that game is for us (and the sharks).
I do not see how fielding a b-side vs the Lions would cost us our goal, quite the contrary.

What's the point? Next year there won't be a conference system anymore (most probably), and some of these teams won't even be part of Super Rugby. So why shuffle? Last year the battle was in the Stormers/Bulls/Cheetahs/Sunwolves group with the Lions being the out and out favourite in the other conference.

********. Last year, the Lions were better than the Stormers, the Sharks were better than the Bulls, Jaguares were better than Cheetahs and Kings were better than SWs, hence my point.

You've got two seasons in a row where every single team in conference 2 is better than their equivalent in conference one. That's my point. When you organize 2 conferences the typical way of organizing it is the following

Conf 1 Conf 2
1 2
4 3
5 6
8 7


That way you have conf 1 having an edge in 2 cases (1vs2 and 5vs6) and conf 2 having an edge in the other 2 (7vs8 and 3vs4).
A simple way of double checking this is that 1+4+5+8=2+3+6+7. That looks intuitively fair.
Right now, the picture looks more like this


Conf 1 Conf 2
2 1
4 3
6 5
8 7

1+3+5+7 (16) < 2+4+6+8 (20) - NB: the lower the number the stronger the team/conference.

That does not look intuitively fair.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I dont think your coach will have the same mindset as you. He will probably play close to his best starting xv against the lions IMO. The Sharks and Jaguares might even be on the same plane to Buenos Aires. But even then im not counting on the Sharks winning the game against a possibly tired Jags outfit in Argentina.

Unfortunately, you might be right. I don't think any Jaguares supporter would stand up to defend our coach. Our coach is an idiot, regardless of what his mindset for that game will be. Him picking our best vs the Lions away would just confirm it.
This might very well end up being a case of people counting the change in their pocket to see who qualifies and who does not. Decisions like these matter. Given our lack of discipline, even more. We need to carefully pick our battles until our discipline improves.

On the other hand the Sharks vs Jaguares game in durban we will/should win . Apart from the quality in the team, we are a very good side at home and the conditions being humid and wet in durban will count against the style played by the Lions and Jags. Assuming The Sharks win Both the Home games against the Lions and Jags and then lose both away games we will just be in the same position where we are now and it will depend on the results against the rest of the teams to determine who finishes first. Dont count out the possibility that with all these matches against each other in Africa 2 that the Cheetahs or bulls sneak the last wild card spot.

I agree with most of this. The thing is, that there are two differences between fielding our best (away) vs the Lions and the Sharks

1) Our chances of beating the Sharks, thou slim, are better than beating the Lions. Last season we lost by 4 points vs the Sharks while the lions tore us a new one
2) Our main competitor for the #2 spot is the Sharks

I can understand going all in vs the sharks. I can understand the "must win battle" mentality against them, even when it seems far fetched, and even when i might disagree with it. It's a risky but rational move, call it a high risk high reward one. Fielding our best vs the Lions away ain't high risk/reward, it's just plain silly.

 

[SomeOke]

The problem with changing the conferences is that you can never guarantee how good or bad a team will be. A lot of people (myself included) thought the Stormers would be bottom feeders and the Bulls would be the second best team in SA.

This might even still be the case, the season is very long, and form is a funny thing. The Hurricanes started last season with 2 losses and 4 point victory to the Blues. Be wary of deciding how the competition will play out so soon, maybe the Bulls will get the third qualifying spot at the expense of the Sharks and the Jaguares, unlikely but possible.

That said creating seeded conferences every year based on last years performance seems like quite a good idea. (although it might mean some teams play the Kiwi teams two years in a row).

Edit: I do think we'll see April start this weekend, that substitution of Clement for April 45 minutes into last weekends game just seemed like RdP was finally gatvol.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

The problem with changing the conferences is that you can never guarantee how good or bad a team will be. some teams play the Kiwi teams two years in a row).

I know past performance doesn't always translate to current performance but they should be closely correlated. It would be very, very easy to reshuffle the conferences based on the outcome of the previous season, using something along the lines of the 1-8 pecking order i mentioned before.

It would even be a good incentive for teams to continue focused and determined after they know they wont be able to qualify for the play offs.

In a nutshell, i don't see any downside with reshuffling and i do see a few upsides. Pareto efficient they call it!

 

[SomeOke]

Fair enough, one potential downside would be that the some teams will play the Kiwis/Aussies two years in a row.

It might be moot since I think we're due for a new competition soon.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Granted, fair point.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think a lot of the initial thought going into the two SA conferences revolved around money;

You simply have to lump the Stormers and Bulls in together to maximize the revenue from the Jukskei derby and the Sharks and Lions are the two strong remaining teams with the shorter travel time between the four franchizes. I do think the format ould have been better off with the Jaguares and Kings in SA conference 1 (a surprising amount of Argentine support in Cape Town and a lot of Capetonians would make their way to PE as opposed to Bloem) but at the time I strongly suspect the organizers were thinking the Stormers/Bulls was the stronger conference.

Ayway back on topic this is an interesting match and an the three way tug-of-wr between the top 3 sides for the wild card spot is an interesting sub-plot. In this context the Jaguares beating the Lions at home is massive. The Sharks will either need to take both games against the Jaguares (a very tall order) or aso take at least one off of the Lions. Just take care of the Bulls. Serial slow starters. I expect they'll start climbing the ladder slowly but will ultimately fall short.

 

[unrated]

Lineup has been announced
15. Garth April
14.Kobus Van Wyk
13. Lukhanyo Am
12. Andre Esterhizen
11. Lwazi Mvovo
10. Curwin Bosch
9. Cobus Reinach
8.Daniel du Preez (First start after 8 month injury)
7. Jean luc du Preez
6.Tera Mtembu
5.Ruan Botha
4.Etienne Oosthuizen
3. Coenie Oosthuizen
2.Chiliboy Ralepelle
1.Thomas The Tank

I know April has flair but i dont think its right picking him at fullback for the lions. Cant recall him playing there before and frankly this will put us under pressure. You can be sure that the lions will penetrate our first line of defence more than once and im not sure April is the best guy to stop it in the last line of defense. I would rather swap him and Bosch. Not sure we can win this without our best player in Lambie but atleast they can try.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Lineup has been announced
15. Garth April
14.Kobus Van Wyk
13. Lukhanyo Am
12. Andre Esterhizen
11. Lwazi Mvovo
10. Curwin Bosch
9. Cobus Reinach
8.Daniel du Preez (First start after 8 month injury)
7. Jean luc du Preez
6.Tera Mtembu
5.Ruan Botha
4.Etienne Oosthuizen
3. Coenie Oosthuizen
2.Chiliboy Ralepelle
1.Thomas The Tank

I know April has flair but i dont think its right picking him at fullback for the lions. Cant recall him playing there before and frankly this will put us under pressure. You can be sure that the lions will penetrate our first line of defence more than once and im not sure April is the best guy to stop it in the last line of defense. I would rather swap him and Bosch. Not sure we can win this without our best player in Lambie but atleast they can try.

I think that's what's going to happen throughout the match. Bosch and April switching roles between fly half and fullback.

 

[unrated]

Another interesting match up for this game brought to my attention by a radio dj is the matchup between Ruan Ackerman the son of Johan Ackerman (Lions coach) and Jean luc du Preez son of Robert du Preez (Sharks coach).
Has three brothers ever played together for the Springboks?. Pretty sure Dan and Jean luc will make it to Springbok level im just not sure about Robert jnr but that would be interesting.

 

[SomeOke]

Another interesting match up for this game brought to my attention by a radio dj is the matchup between Ruan Ackerman the son of Johan Ackerman (Lions coach) and Jean luc du Preez son of Robert du Preez (Sharks coach).
Has three brothers ever played together for the Springboks?. Pretty sure Dan and Jean luc will make it to Springbok level im just not sure about Robert jnr but that would be interesting.

I think the only no brainer as a future Bok is JldP, the others just aren't special enough, for me in order to be a Bok you should be world class at either fetching/carrying/link play or be a good enough jack of all trades (like Vermulen), Ackerman and Dan are workmanlike but need to develop at least one skill set to the next level for me.

JldP has been a beast in the carry and through link play, him and Kolisi will push each other hard for that 7 jersey.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Its good to have another legit no7/8 option for the Bokke beyond Vermeulen and Alberts who aren't getting younger and then Whiteley, Carr etc who possibly aren't physical enough for test rugby? I do like Ackermann as well but feel JLdP is ahead. This match wshould go a long way t answer that question.

 

[FNS]

Best scenario here for jags would be a blowout by lions. Also i would also play a B side against lions we deont have depth for this long tourney.