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[2017 RBS Six Nations] Round 4: Wales v Ireland (11/02/2017)

Very good post. You should see some of the drivel on boards.ie/rugby. People calling for Joe's head and all other sorts of nonsense. Though I would disagree slightly on SOB. I would be in favour of VdF making more regular appearances when available.

Out of curiosity why do you think Stander and Henshaw won't start at the next WC?

For the record, I think this match along with Argentina at the WC and France at 2016 6N have been our worst games in the Schmidt era (I'm not really going to include that first Oz match). Oh, actually Italy at the WC was atrocious as well despite us winning. Can you imagine if POM hadn't made that try saving tackle? Imagine if Italy had won and we went on to get thrashed by NZ? Would Schmidt even be here!?

I think they will, its the other guys who I singled out for mistakes who'll likely be out. Sorry for the confusion.
 
Depth is being built and Zebo and Earls are likely on the verge of becoming squad players while Best, RK and Ryan are on their way out, two years out from an RWC we're in a better position than the side we lost to yesterday and will have more caps and experience, we have three 10's in the country capable of cutting defences wide open but don't have the back three to take adavantage, when Sweetnam, Byrne, ROL and Kelleher are mature enough these attacking problems will go away and we'll be able to compete to our best in consecutive international windows. Individual errors by players, with the exception of Stander and Henshaw, who won't be starters at the next World Cup aren't reasons to criticise Schmidt. The picking of SOB isn't even a reason because both games lost were completely winnable with him. Our players are overhyped, Schmidt is the real deal and will help his players catch up.

Agreed. When I look at the Irish and Welsh teams, it's evident that Schmidt is doing a better job of bringing through younger talent than Howley/Gatland. Arguably, certain players could be being more actively 'cycled-out', but that's no different than it is for England - for Best and SOB, you could just as easily refer to Hartley and Haskell.

Regardless of how next week pans out, I think Ireland were always going to be in a transition after the Lions tour anyway. Key players like Best and Heaslip as well as Ryan and Bowe are realistically too old to be starters in 2019, but with decent replacements already identified and in the mix with Cronin/Scannell/Tracy, Conan, Dillane and Sweetnam, I think Ireland are in a better position to evolve than Wales are right now.
 
Looking at the headlines of the indo and through this write up it looks nothing more than tabloid trash, what a surprise!

The two losses can't be blamed on Schmidt, we had rwo set pieces on Scotland's 5m line where three points would have won the game, poor execution at the line out and off the back of the scrum cost us, the exact same happened yesterday except it was at least 4 set pieces and a try was needed, missed line outs, Henshaw's error, Earls' overrunning a training ground move are not coaching errors. There's not much Schmidt can do when his players can't keep their discipline when in sight of the tryline when they're executing the playbook perfectly elsewhere, there's not much he can do about attack when the defence is leaking tries with the strongest defenders but my guess is that if you looked at possession and territory stats in both the Wales and Scotland games we came out best, he wasn't outsmarted by Howley or Cotter, their players just gave more on the day and won due to our players severe lack of composure.

Ireland don't have the players to go a year without a bad result unless everything is perfect, its far from it right now, we're blooding a new centre and while he's been our best player this 6 nations his 11 and 15 aren't pulling their weight because one can't tackle and the other has the positional sense of a donkey, this needs changing but the players who will come in aren't there yet, Sweetnam and Payne were injured while Byrne's defensive errors are worse than Zebo's. Picking SOB shows no weakness either, the guy had good games against France and Italy and will likely do so again next week, Schmidt needs to go back to tinkering with his sides week to week, now that he has the information that his ball carrying back row doesn't work against sides attacking the breakdown, he shouldn't pick it but one match didn't show this. Jordi Murphy and SOB will be interchangeable for this in the future, with Murphy's ability to hit attacking rucks being second to none in terms of Irish backrows.

These losses wouldn't have been prevented by any other coach in the world and criticism of Schmidt is, for the most part, from people who want us to play like NZ even though we can't, a coach can't coach individual errors out of players he can only replace them, is anyone going to criticise him for not dropping Henshaw, Earls, Stander, Heaslip and Best next week because their individual errors cost us two games? No, because they're the best we have for the most part but some should and likely will be phased out in the next 12 months, if there's no change then get the knives out but if we win next week we'll likely go the rest of the year unbeaten and get to third in the world because as we are only NZ can beat us in Dublin with England potentially, but unlikely imo, to be on the cusp.

Depth is being built and Zebo and Earls are likely on the verge of becoming squad players while Best, RK and Ryan are on their way out, two years out from an RWC we're in a better position than the side we lost to yesterday and will have more caps and experience, we have three 10's in the country capable of cutting defences wide open but don't have the back three to take adavantage, when Sweetnam, Byrne, ROL and Kelleher are mature enough these attacking problems will go away and we'll be able to compete to our best in consecutive international windows. Individual errors by players, with the exception of Stander and Henshaw, who won't be starters at the next World Cup aren't reasons to criticise Schmidt. The picking of SOB isn't even a reason because both games lost were completely winnable with him. Our players are overhyped, Schmidt is the real deal and will help his players catch up.

Again we will agree to disagree and I've said it wasn't fully Schmidt's fault but can't say alot is drivel.
We've lost x amount of games so of course a coach deserves to be questioned.
If players on field let him down then that is an area you could argue but ultimately he pick players and is captain of ship.
On Welsh game last night he and his coaches certainly deserve to be questioned on selection and tactics as well as use of bench.
Scottish game was same - bench usage, selection and tactics in defence.
The point us Declan Kidney Eddie O'Sullivan and Gatland were all hammered for similar. Depth can't be an argument as we have much better depth than Welsh or Scots and Schmidt didn't trust them.
The argument I think is very legit and fair. I'm not calling for Schmidt to be fired I must point out but on my own write up I think every argument is fair.
Like if you look at Kidneys time when he went his injury crisis was worst. He had to go I'm agreeing. The point is the coach is a leader he will take blame partly for all errors thats sport. Equally the stats do show he has struggled away from Dublin in 6 Nations and we do need to score tries. You can say oh if this came off or yhat etc but they didn't
 
I'm a lot gloomier now that the booze has worn off and it's the next morning... ***** me that was disappointing. I absolutely hate seeing us get caught out wide, we just make it look so easy for them. There is a massive question mark against our defense. Against quality opposition who like to run (ie most good teams) we are just leaking too many tries.

Wales 3
Scotland 3
Australia 3
NZ - 3, 4
Argentina - 4

Does anyone other tier 1 team (not counting Italy) give away as many tries as we do? It's painful to watch. I remember when we hammered Wales 26-3... That was in in 2014, and also the last time we've beaten them in a 6N. I mean it's one thing if you have a loose defense but make up for it with an incisive attack like many SR sides or Scotland, but our leaky defense coupled with our woeful attack is just awful, really. My grandfather is more creative in attack than Ireland. The funny thing is Ireland capable of playing a good attacking game, NZ and Italy being two (polar) examples. It's hard for me to say we're a top 4 side after looking at like this. Our game plan can be very effective when it works but it's so reliant on every player having a great game. Not saying we need to start winning games playing averagely, but we clearly lack a plan B and any off the cuff magic. Best, Toner, Ryan, RK and maybe even SOB need to be phased out.

Best offered nothing last night. He's never seemed like a great captain to me (despite being a lovely fella) and IMO his form this and last 6N have not been great, especially this year. It's a real pity Cronin wasn't there.
Toner... if he wasn't so feckin' lanky he probably wouldn't be on the team. He is pretty crap at rucking and doesn't offer much apart from being decent-ish in the line-out.
RK - Actually had an ok game. Majestic under the high ball as always. However Ireland are crying out for a FB that can inject some pace and counter-attacking flair. I'm not in favour of TOH, not yet anyways, he still has a lot to prove. Nor Payne - great player of course but he is 31 and we need to start looking to the future.
SOB - Just not what he used to be. He hasn't been the same after that WC injury. It's unfortunate, he's been class for Ireland but he looked outright dumb sometimes last night. Heard him shouting a lot but not much playing...
Heaslip - had a poor game but TBH I think he's pretty consistent overall and one bad game does not a player make. I wouldn't be calling for his head just yet.

I would be in favour of starting POM and even giving him the captaincy (though I'm not expecting Joe to make such a drastic change next week). I really hope we see more VdF when he returns from injury too. Ah I'm gonna stop the analysis now, it's just bumming me out! Looks like not much has changed... Ireland - good team capable of great performances, over-hyped ta fvck and consistently fail to deliver at big matches. Meh, if we still convincingly beat England next week I will be happy. It would likely mean finishing second, which I would take, in addition to denying them their slam and record. But whatever happens next week, much like Wales for this week, things are going to have to change regardless. Oh, and yet again, I was totally befuddled as to why a kicks at goal were refused. It was the exact same ****e against France. For me, it's a total NO BRAINER in a match like this. Especially in a match like this ffs. Closed roof at the Millenium Stadium, in a tense match against a team who have a notoriously strong defense. I hope we drop the jig-acting and start taking the points on offer. It's infuriating to see us go for the corner only for it to fail miserably.

PS does anyone know how I can watch the BBC via Irish internet? Lord save me if I have to endure more RTE punditry from those 4 clowns. They are dreadful. Would love to see some POC.

You may want POC but you end up with that Sonia bird
 
As a neutral England supporter, I can only say that Ireland got their butt kicked severely today. Whether they can recover in time after we stuff the Jocks is a different issue. Excellent game though. Enjoyed watching it. I would have given Stander the MoM but heh, it never goes to the losing side.

As an an avid supporter of my home country yesterdays game was hard to watch, the team and coach have let the country down and played one of the most disgraceful games of rugby I can remember in a green shirt.


Murray should have been taken off straight away with his injury, the forwards were slow, the line outs were the worst I have ever seen, Sexton was kicking the ball around like a game of soccer and they looked like they lost their composure easily after fifteen minutes, not good enough, not professional enough.
 
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Here's a team I'd like to see at the next WC. Or fvck it, maybe even the next 6N

1. McGrath
2. Scannell
3. Furlong
4. Henderson
5. Dillane
6. POM
7. VDF
8. Stander
9. Murray
10. Jackson
11/14 Sweetnam/Byrne
12. Henshaw
13. Ringrose
15. Carbery?
 
It looks like Wales are within .02 of Ireland's ranking score after that thumping victory. If they beat France they'll almost certainly be a top 4 ranked side going into the RWC draw.

From all the fair remarks above, all I'd argue against is criticism of Wales for not blooding new talent (compared to Ireland). Yes, they could and maybe should have done that in November, but with ranking points at stake (and a possible group of death to avoid) I can see why Wales solely played to win and avoided any experimentation - it is only now they are guaranteed not to be in the third pot of seeds, but next week they will be playing to be a top seed, so again no experimentation even though the 6N is basically over for them. Plus Howley is auditioning for a big promotion at his work so is unlikely to move away from what he considers his most reliable lineup (it may even be that Gatland won't let him).

Wales are ageing a bit in the forwards, but don't have an abundance of alternatives. In the backs they aren't too old at all and Scott Williams has dislodged Roberts. Amos might well have muscled his way into the back 3 if he hadn't got crocked (his 20 min pre-injury cameo in November was arguably a highlight in a Welsh shirt). A back three of North, Amos & Liam Williams would be youthful, intelligent and creative, with the potential to be the best in the competition and put in a star turn at the RWC. There is no need for big experiments.

With a Lions tour and then November tests, there'll be plenty time for Wales to try out some new personnel before the next 6N. Two of their Pro12 sides are firing on all cylinders. My point being, cheer up Wales, your union is being run in a fairly competent manner.

Who would argue against Howley as Gatland's successor if Wales enter the next RWC as a top seed?
 
Bowe apparently was training the house down yet he only made a cameo when the game was over. Schmidt trusted Healy, Henderson and O'Mahony. The rest were picked because he has to be pick 8 subs. I like Joe but thats a horrible mind set.

What really irks me is that the world didn't fall apart when Marmion came on. We didn't haemorrhage points due his inexperience. He actually played very well. This is the only issue i have with Schmidt. He's a brilliant coach but earning his trust seems to be a herculean task. Ringrose, Carberry, VDF,..... when these lads were filling the team there was a vibrancy about us in the Autumn. If he'd picked O' Loughlin, Sweetnam, Byrne they'd impress the same, perhaps even more so. Conan, Leavy, Scannell, there's a long list of young talented Irish players just waiting for a chance.

SOB is still a very capable. 4 months ago he put in a performance that was unbelievable at the time. You don't grow old in 4 months. However, if i was his coach i'd light a firework and stick it up his arse (i.e drop him). Himself, Zebo, Best are not deliberately undermining the team or anything but we saw what professional players do when backed into a corner last night. Just think George North.
 
What a game, I really didn't expect that from Wales. But they really did well, especially in those scenes were Ireland kept on going through the phases close to the try line.

What happened to some of the young Irish players we saw during the Autumn Internationals?
 
Bowe apparently was training the house down yet he only made a cameo when the game was over. Schmidt trusted Healy, Henderson and O'Mahony. The rest were picked because he has to be pick 8 subs. I like Joe but thats a horrible mind set.

What really irks me is that the world didn't fall apart when Marmion came on. We didn't haemorrhage points due his inexperience. He actually played very well. This is the only issue i have with Schmidt. He's a brilliant coach but earning his trust seems to be a herculean task. Ringrose, Carberry, VDF,..... when these lads were filling the team there was a vibrancy about us in the Autumn. If he'd picked O' Loughlin, Sweetnam, Byrne they'd impress the same, perhaps even more so. Conan, Leavy, Scannell, there's a long list of young talented Irish players just waiting for a chance.

SOB is still a very capable. 4 months ago he put in a performance that was unbelievable at the time. You don't grow old in 4 months. However, if i was his coach i'd light a firework and stick it up his arse (i.e drop him). Himself, Zebo, Best are not deliberately undermining the team or anything but we saw what professional players do when backed into a corner last night. Just think George North.

This is on the money. Schmidt isn't bad coach he just has to trust others. Marmion should've been on earlier. And he needs to trust the bench. Like we do have depth it just needs to be trusted. Sweetnam Byrne Carbery these guys need to be trusted. And equally we all agree these guys deserve a go but can we see them being there in AIs. Like it's 1 thing blooding guys in vs USA and Japan but they need games vs Tier 1 nations too to truly get up to speed.

As I said though Schmidt deserves flak but equally his coaching team deserve just as much.
 
I'm a lot gloomier now that the booze has worn off and it's the next morning... ***** me that was disappointing. I absolutely hate seeing us get caught out wide, we just make it look so easy for them. There is a massive question mark against our defense. Against quality opposition who like to run (ie most good teams) we are just leaking too many tries.

Wales 3
Scotland 3
Australia 3
NZ - 3, 4
Argentina - 4

Does anyone other tier 1 team (not counting Italy) give away as many tries as we do? It's painful to watch. I remember when we hammered Wales 26-3... That was in in 2014, and also the last time we've beaten them in a 6N. I mean it's one thing if you have a loose defense but make up for it with an incisive attack like many SR sides or Scotland, but our leaky defense coupled with our woeful attack is just awful, really. My grandfather is more creative in attack than Ireland. The funny thing is Ireland capable of playing a good attacking game, NZ and Italy being two (polar) examples. It's hard for me to say we're a top 4 side after looking at like this. Our game plan can be very effective when it works but it's so reliant on every player having a great game. Not saying we need to start winning games playing averagely, but we clearly lack a plan B and any off the cuff magic. Best, Toner, Ryan, RK and maybe even SOB need to be phased out.

Best offered nothing last night. He's never seemed like a great captain to me (despite being a lovely fella) and IMO his form this and last 6N have not been great, especially this year. It's a real pity Cronin wasn't there.
Toner... if he wasn't so feckin' lanky he probably wouldn't be on the team. He is pretty crap at rucking and doesn't offer much apart from being decent-ish in the line-out.
RK - Actually had an ok game. Majestic under the high ball as always. However Ireland are crying out for a FB that can inject some pace and counter-attacking flair. I'm not in favour of TOH, not yet anyways, he still has a lot to prove. Nor Payne - great player of course but he is 31 and we need to start looking to the future.
SOB - Just not what he used to be. He hasn't been the same after that WC injury. It's unfortunate, he's been class for Ireland but he looked outright dumb sometimes last night. Heard him shouting a lot but not much playing...
Heaslip - had a poor game but TBH I think he's pretty consistent overall and one bad game does not a player make. I wouldn't be calling for his head just yet.

I would be in favour of starting POM and even giving him the captaincy (though I'm not expecting Joe to make such a drastic change next week). I really hope we see more VdF when he returns from injury too. Ah I'm gonna stop the analysis now, it's just bumming me out! Looks like not much has changed... Ireland - good team capable of great performances, over-hyped ta fvck and consistently fail to deliver at big matches. Meh, if we still convincingly beat England next week I will be happy. It would likely mean finishing second, which I would take, in addition to denying them their slam and record. But whatever happens next week, much like Wales for this week, things are going to have to change regardless. Oh, and yet again, I was totally befuddled as to why a kicks at goal were refused. It was the exact same ****e against France. For me, it's a total NO BRAINER in a match like this. Especially in a match like this ffs. Closed roof at the Millenium Stadium, in a tense match against a team who have a notoriously strong defense. I hope we drop the jig-acting and start taking the points on offer. It's infuriating to see us go for the corner only for it to fail miserably.

PS does anyone know how I can watch the BBC via Irish internet? Lord save me if I have to endure more RTE punditry from those 4 clowns. They are dreadful. Would love to see some POC.

It would be interesting to study the correlation between penalites conceeded and tries conceeded. Ireland have given away so few penalties in the last 12 months. Is this discipline actually giving the opposition really quick ball and instead of taking 3 points they are actually scoring tires instead. Too many mitigating factors to derive any real insight but it would interesting to see if any correlations can be drawn up.
 
You lost to Wales in Cardiff its not the end of the World

Your right. It's not end of world. Issue is more this has been on cards a while, we've been on inconsistent dip.

Issues that need to be sorted.
1. Develop a 2nd choice 9 that can be trusted at 9. Murray was left on 15 mins too long last night despite it being clear he should be taken off.
2. Pick on form. Guys like Byrne and Sweetnam even Conway I'd argue should've seen time. Kearney came in with poor form, Zebo came in with all his form at 15. Sean O'Brien came in based on reputation nothing else.
3. Trust guys on bench. Scannell should've been used more as Best was poor. Marmion should've seen more time.
4. We need to evolve our gameplan. It's too static and is being sussed.
5. Loosen the regime a bit.

Now that's not all aimed at Schmidt. I accept players on field take some blame and other coached too. The main reason Schmidt gets flak is he's the man who oversees the whole lot so of course is seen as responsible. But look you don't become a bad coach overnight. I'd be more worried about defence at moment. Farrell is under pressure.
I think as a whole we need to sort away form. 25% record excluding Italy is desperate.
 
I think Henshaw is wasted at 12 - his feet and speed are too good to be just used as a battering ram
 
I think Henshaw is wasted at 12 - his feet and speed are too good to be just used as a battering ram

I thought he played well not just as battering ram but as playmaker too. 1 or 2 nice kicks. Where else do we put him. 15?
 
It looks like Wales are within .02 of Ireland's ranking score after that thumping victory. If they beat France they'll almost certainly be a top 4 ranked side going into the RWC draw.

From all the fair remarks above, all I'd argue against is criticism of Wales for not blooding new talent (compared to Ireland). Yes, they could and maybe should have done that in November, but with ranking points at stake (and a possible group of death to avoid) I can see why Wales solely played to win and avoided any experimentation - it is only now they are guaranteed not to be in the third pot of seeds, but next week they will be playing to be a top seed, so again no experimentation even though the 6N is basically over for them. Plus Howley is auditioning for a big promotion at his work so is unlikely to move away from what he considers his most reliable lineup (it may even be that Gatland won't let him).

Wales are ageing a bit in the forwards, but don't have an abundance of alternatives. In the backs they aren't too old at all and Scott Williams has dislodged Roberts. Amos might well have muscled his way into the back 3 if he hadn't got crocked (his 20 min pre-injury cameo in November was arguably a highlight in a Welsh shirt). A back three of North, Amos & Liam Williams would be youthful, intelligent and creative, with the potential to be the best in the competition and put in a star turn at the RWC. There is no need for big experiments.

With a Lions tour and then November tests, there'll be plenty time for Wales to try out some new personnel before the next 6N. Two of their Pro12 sides are firing on all cylinders. My point being, cheer up Wales, your union is being run in a fairly competent manner.

Who would argue against Howley as Gatland's successor if Wales enter the next RWC as a top seed?

Imo you're giving Howley and Wales a little too much credit. They've looked poor for the majority of the last 3-4 years, with only the odd good performance. Those good performances show that we're fully capable, but for the majority the coaches fail to consistently get that level of performance from the side. If Wales go into the WC seeding's as one of the top 4, it probably highlights just how poor some of the competition are atm. SA in particular are nowhere near the standard they should be.

Before the match Howley reeled out the over-used expression "you don't become a bad team overnight", more apt at the moment would be "you don't become a top team overnight". We shouldn't get carried away after yesterdays result. We could have easily lost, whilst Ireland weren't at their best. Wales played pretty well overall, but imo still far from what they are capable of:

1 Rob Evans 7. Held the scrum well against the impressive Furlong. Put himself about, and carried strongly throughout. Showed some good hands at one point, sending a lovely long pass out to his backs (scary though!).
2 Ken Owens 8. Really impressive game from the Hooker. Nailed every lineout, whilst his workrate in defense and attack was excellent.
3 Tomas Francis 6.5. Solid enough, and got involved a little in the loose. Still not as mobile as I would like.
4 Jake Ball 6. Mostly played well, offering himself as a carrier and stole a lineout. Struggled to make too many yards, and also gave away at least one soft penalty at a maul. Far batter than v Scotland though.
5 AWJ 7. Industrious display as always. Decision making as captain was spot on this game, maybe showing that he's fully adjusted to the role. Stole a lineout to boot.
6 Sam Warburton 8. Another excellent display. Everywhere once again in both defense and as a carrier. Barnes gave nothing to either side at the ruck in terms of turnovers, so he couldn't shine there; but did slow ball down.
7 Justin Tipuric 7.5. Combined well with Warbs, and similarly showed up well in defense. His workrate is similarly impressive, although not as physical as Warbs (one big tackle stood out though, where he drove the Irish player back 5m). Didn't get a chance to shine in open field, but we know that's ready to unleash when he get's a chance, so it's great that he's still proving his worth despite this.
8 Ross Moriarty 7. Another good, if unspectacular performance. One moment stood-out where he was pushed into touch when Wales were pressing when Sexton was off the field. Hopefully he'll learn from that, but it's not a great thing to see from your no. 8.

9 Rhys Webb 8. Made a few mistakes, firing out a couple of too long and flat passes early on which almost got intercepted. However he was Wales most creative player, setting up North's first try, and generally finding space. Thought he had a great game, and Wales didn't look the same when he went off.
10 Dan Biggar 5. Some good defensive interventions, and covered well at fullback when required. Really struggled to influence the game offensively though! Also dropped a couple of high balls you'd expect him to take.
11 Liam Williams 7. Always makes ground, and hits above his weight. Along with the rest of his team-mates he struggled under the high ball.
12 Scott Williams 6.5. Solid throughout, and keeps showing nice touches. Can play much better though.
13 Jon Davies 7. Another good performance. it's making such a difference having him playing well. He's great defensively and makes metres with ball in hand.
14 George North 8. Great to see him back. Showed the kind of power and pace we know he all has. Great to see him making good decisions defensively, and making his tackles. One cross kick aside, he wasn't exposed prepositionally like he usually is. Unlucky not to secure a turnover at one stage in the second half where he appeared to be over the ball for a good few seconds. Solidity under the high ball was his only negative really.
15 Leigh Halfpenny 5.5. Not his best performance. Looked shaky under the high ball, and still isn't showing too much in attack. However he was rock solid in his tackling, and his place kicking was what you'd expect from him.

17 Scott Baldwin 5. Not convinced he should be there at all. Shaky in the lineout, where we went from slick to under pressure.
18 Nicky Smith 6. As always, he get's around in open play, and his quick feet help him make meters with ball in hand. Scrum started to struggle once the substitutes entered the fray.
19 Samson Lee 5. Still struggling really. Scrum was under pressure, and didn't notice him much in the loose.
20 Luke Charteris 7. Good cameo, stealing a lineout and showing up well in the tight.
21 Taulupe Faletau 7. Far better from him. Good linespeed to charge Sexton down for the score that took us clear.
22 Gareth Davies 5.5. Pressured well defensively, but he's a decent step-down from Webb. Box kicking also a worry.
23 Jamie Roberts 6.5. Did well when he came on to be fair. Not convinced having him on the bench, but he defended well when he came on, and took his try well.

I'd still like to see Howley make a few changes for France. Sam Davies should be given an opportunity to start, Liam should be given another go at fullback with one of Steff Evans of Giles coming onto the wing. I'd bring Faletau back in at 8, with Moriarty tasked with making a big impact off the bench.
 
Imo you're giving Howley and Wales a little too much credit. They've looked poor for the majority of the last 3-4 years, with only the odd good performance. Those good performances show that we're fully capable, but for the majority the coaches fail to consistently get that level of performance from the side. If Wales go into the WC seeding's as one of the top 4, it probably highlights just how poor some of the competition are atm. SA in particular are nowhere near the standard they should be.

Before the match Howley reeled out the over-used expression "you don't become a bad team overnight", more apt at the moment would be "you don't become a top team overnight". We shouldn't get carried away after yesterdays result. We could have easily lost, whilst Ireland weren't at their best. Wales played pretty well overall, but imo still far from what they are capable of:

1 Rob Evans 7. Held the scrum well against the impressive Furlong. Put himself about, and carried strongly throughout. Showed some good hands at one point, sending a lovely long pass out to his backs (scary though!).
2 Ken Owens 8. Really impressive game from the Hooker. Nailed every lineout, whilst his workrate in defense and attack was excellent.
3 Tomas Francis 6.5. Solid enough, and got involved a little in the loose. Still not as mobile as I would like.
4 Jake Ball 6. Mostly played well, offering himself as a carrier and stole a lineout. Struggled to make too many yards, and also gave away at least one soft penalty at a maul. Far batter than v Scotland though.
5 AWJ 7. Industrious display as always. Decision making as captain was spot on this game, maybe showing that he's fully adjusted to the role. Stole a lineout to boot.
6 Sam Warburton 8. Another excellent display. Everywhere once again in both defense and as a carrier. Barnes gave nothing to either side at the ruck in terms of turnovers, so he couldn't shine there; but did slow ball down.
7 Justin Tipuric 7.5. Combined well with Warbs, and similarly showed up well in defense. His workrate is similarly impressive, although not as physical as Warbs (one big tackle stood out though, where he drove the Irish player back 5m). Didn't get a chance to shine in open field, but we know that's ready to unleash when he get's a chance, so it's great that he's still proving his worth despite this.
8 Ross Moriarty 7. Another good, if unspectacular performance. One moment stood-out where he was pushed into touch when Wales were pressing when Sexton was off the field. Hopefully he'll learn from that, but it's not a great thing to see from your no. 8.

9 Rhys Webb 8. Made a few mistakes, firing out a couple of too long and flat passes early on which almost got intercepted. However he was Wales most creative player, setting up North's first try, and generally finding space. Thought he had a great game, and Wales didn't look the same when he went off.
10 Dan Biggar 5. Some good defensive interventions, and covered well at fullback when required. Really struggled to influence the game offensively though! Also dropped a couple of high balls you'd expect him to take.
11 Liam Williams 7. Always makes ground, and hits above his weight. Along with the rest of his team-mates he struggled under the high ball.
12 Scott Williams 6.5. Solid throughout, and keeps showing nice touches. Can play much better though.
13 Jon Davies 7. Another good performance. it's making such a difference having him playing well. He's great defensively and makes metres with ball in hand.
14 George North 8. Great to see him back. Showed the kind of power and pace we know he all has. Great to see him making good decisions defensively, and making his tackles. One cross kick aside, he wasn't exposed prepositionally like he usually is. Unlucky not to secure a turnover at one stage in the second half where he appeared to be over the ball for a good few seconds. Solidity under the high ball was his only negative really.
15 Leigh Halfpenny 5.5. Not his best performance. Looked shaky under the high ball, and still isn't showing too much in attack. However he was rock solid in his tackling, and his place kicking was what you'd expect from him.

17 Scott Baldwin 5. Not convinced he should be there at all. Shaky in the lineout, where we went from slick to under pressure.
18 Nicky Smith 6. As always, he get's around in open play, and his quick feet help him make meters with ball in hand. Scrum started to struggle once the substitutes entered the fray.
19 Samson Lee 5. Still struggling really. Scrum was under pressure, and didn't notice him much in the loose.
20 Luke Charteris 7. Good cameo, stealing a lineout and showing up well in the tight.
21 Taulupe Faletau 7. Far better from him. Good linespeed to charge Sexton down for the score that took us clear.
22 Gareth Davies 5.5. Pressured well defensively, but he's a decent step-down from Webb. Box kicking also a worry.
23 Jamie Roberts 6.5. Did well when he came on to be fair. Not convinced having him on the bench, but he defended well when he came on, and took his try well.

I'd still like to see Howley make a few changes for France. Sam Davies should be given an opportunity to start, Liam should be given another go at fullback with one of Steff Evans of Giles coming onto the wing. I'd bring Faletau back in at 8, with Moriarty tasked with making a big impact off the bench.

George North 9 imo, mom for me looking back , he did everything great yesterday , found space , offered support and showed he still has the power to knock over most , also he was great in defence, I think he deserves a 9 especially after all the flak he received for the Scotland game in which he was rushed back for.
 
Are there any positives from this 6N?

We were blown away in the first half against Scotland. We made a come back - which is something Irish teams rarely do - and we failed at it.
We (struggled to) put away an average French side in Dublin
Had a shocker in Cardiff
Will probably hand England the slam next weekend
Haven't really blooded anyone apart from Ringrose who was forced
Best is turning out to be a pretty poor captain

We're looking at finishing 4th here. I don't think a repeat of 2011 is on the cards. I hope to God I am wrong but this England side are much more menacing than Johnson's side of 2011. This is pretty disastrous. I didn't think we would win this year, always felt it was England's 6N, but I did not anticipate a likely 4th place finish. All of ROG's talk before the Scotland match of expecting slams and other nonsense is even more cringey than it was then.

I don't want to jump the gun and be melodramatic but what has Ireland achieved since 2015 6N? We beat the ABs. That's about it. I'm not counting our "first win in SA" because that SA side are utter ****e and lost to feckin' Italy, who we put 63 points on. The fact we lost the other 2 matches says a lot. Our win over OZ was nice but... meh. I'm not calling for Schmidt's head because I think he is still a solid coach. But since BOD left and Bowe got old, we have no classy finishers. We won 2015 with the boot and it was not pretty. That said, I honestly think it's a fix as simple as bringing in a young provincial back-line and fixing our set-piece. We still have quality fowards and half-backs and we still dominate stats. But all of that means f**k all if we struggle to score a single try in a match.

Sorry to be so gloomy but it's hard take much positives from this weekend. I miss the days of being able to go to Cardiff and Twickers with total confidence and self-belief. :(
 

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