Everything I've heard of or observed of the IRFU would indicate a fairly conservative organisation that desires 6N success and prize money above all other things; give every coach the same demands, and that's a mould of sorts.
I would also hazard the guess that a coach with an eye on a SR job in 2017 might not be too bothered with building something long term as long as his CV remains ok-looking.
Dropping McCloskey would be absolute insane and that's only the tip of the rancid looking iceberg.
Edited to add: From a solely Ulster point of view, Schmidt out.
I think the first issue here is the main problem. Schmidt was the best coach in Europe from 2011 til the end of last years 6nations. Suddenly after an unlucky World Cup he has become more conservative than Declan Kidney ever was, it's got to be pressure from places other than media and fans, who want to see new faces, and entering a tournament that he has never lost. The men paying his wages quite clearly told him you have to win this 6 nations then after the France game it must have been to get out of it with three wins and now they're telling him he better as hell get a top 8 ranking spot if he doesn't want someone thrown in on him to inspect everything that happens a la Munster.
Schmidt dr is also a smart man and would have studied past results, he thinks, that with all the injuries he has, if he was to throw in a new promising 12 from Ulster, Paddy Jackson, Craig Gilroy and a new second row pairing he could lose to Scotland and Italy like Kidney did in 2013. I don't agree with it but coming in and making the same mistakes your predecessor was sacked for wouldn't impress anyone in any job. He thinks his hands are tied and if this is the case it's hard to argue.
I'll not.
1. Ranking points are gonna do f__k all for us if our team at the next RWC is full of pensioners or guys who are wet behind the ears through lack of gametime.
2. He is weakening our team by only picking between Zebo and Kearney at full back.
3. He is weakening our team by not playing Dillane instead of Toner (who was badly shown up by Argentina at the RWC and in pretty much every game in the 6N since - if he cannot guarantee lineout ball, he's of little use around the park to compensate.]
4. Would Stander have got a look in if O'Mahony were fit?
5. Would VDF have got a look in if O'Brien had remained fit?
6. Would McCloskey have got a look in if Payne had remained fit?
7. Is Sexton supposed to be 6 foot under before a serious go is made it developing an alternative?
8. What is the point of having McFadden near the squad?
Its now no longer conservatism, its stagnation.
1. There's still plenty of time, these are 5 games out of approximately 50 before the next World Cup and we've had four debutants.
2. Zebo I agree with there are better options, Kearney not so much. He hasn't played badly this in his two games this tournament at all and was one of our better backs after Henshaw last time out. McCloshey, Henshaw and Payne would be more effective in attack but lose a lot of structure, I'd pick this trio but I think the emphasis placed on attack after the World Cup is slightly over the top, none of the SH sides were weak defensively. Balance is needed and something we don't have in any fullback options with Zebo arguably the most suited to bringing it with a bit of maturity.
3. I read somewhere that Dillane and Toner will be starting, without Henderson and POM Toner is needed for the line out though.
4. Would he have deserved it? POM is going to the next World Cup and for all that Stander brings he's not a better player than Heaslip yet and almost certainly won't be a 6 at the next RWC.
5. Would he have deserved it? Why throw one of the best backrows in the world aside for someone who might be a starter at the next RWC? With Conan, Stander, Leavy, POM, Murphy, O'Donoghue and possibly a few bolsters about there's no guarunteed VDF will go, give him his caps when he's needed and he'll do well.
6. Probably not Schmidt is getting it wrong in the centres in my opinion but again with Olding, Ringrose, Henshaw, Aki, Scannell, Marshall and possibly Fitzgerald about for the next WC there's no guarunteed McCloskey will get a look in.
7. He's still our best 10 and has been the best 10 on the pitch for all his matches. Sexton himself got his debut in November '09 and started in the '11 RWC. Jackson and Madigan are both miles ahead of that in terms of experience and JJ Hanrahan and Ross Byrne aren't ready yet, stick with the best player.
8. There is none, plain wrong if he's there.
From a solely Irish point of view, review Schmidt's position after the SA tour if we're uncompetitive there with no sign of new talent get rid of the man, I think he's too intelligent for that though.