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Whilst England's discipline has been poor I'd be interested to see a pitch match of where they were conceeded in the Ireland match and when.
Sexton kicked only 1 penalty (which he made) out the 12 we conceeded. Which suggests we've been 'intelligent' about it it happy to conceed in the oppositions half but a lot more focused in our own.
A factor is Wales drew with Ireland whilst we comfortably beat them. I know Wales usually start off badly but it does suggest England are in a better posistion.
Honestly I don't think discipline will decide this one but the simple fact will England contain Wales like they did in Cardiff in 12 months ago. Wales have a simple gameplan and have proven time and again they really don't have answer for when it gets shut out there is no Plan B. Other teams you see trying things when Pan A doesn't work even if it likely leads to them still loosing.
On the whole bench front I really wouldn't be banking on England tired legs, Cole a prop has played all but 10 minuites so far. This team is fit and has a forward packed bench, our one try conceed is testimate to that.
I really think with home advantage it's England's to loose we'll have bottle it like the world cup not to come out on top.
OR it means we are not actually being intelligent and are simply giving away lots of penalties when we are attacking due to forward passes, obstructions and holding on. I don't think repeatedly ruining attacking platforms by giving away penalties is really any more intelligent than giving them away in kicking distance of your own goal.