[2016 RBS Six Nations] Round 1: Ireland vs. Wales (07/02/2016)

[LukeFitzgerald]

The Welsh back row on Saturday is going to give a real injection of pace and two top quality 7's in tandem is a luxury many teams cannot muster. I simply don't believe Heaslip is as good as Faletau aside from his famed lung busting runs Toby is a better player in every aspect. Ruddock, SOB and Heaslip will do well to get parity, they are not 'easily a match' by any means.

We edge the second row on experience and grunt, I think AWJ and Charteris combined is a great pairing.

Up front is where I believe Wales simply need parity ( that will be tough ) to win the battle of the packs. Wales do struggle at scrum time but limiting the number of scrums is part of the game plan.

Evans is dynamic in the loose and his selection is interesting. Warburton at 6 will negate the need for Gethins turnover work and I think Gatland is going to play it tight, but with a very high tempo. Ireland are very effective at slowing it down and a punitive ref will favour the side looking to play the ball and clear the breakdowns.

For both teams the backs performance will be dependant on the pack but if Wales cope with the high balls, or get to an out of sorts Sexton then the game is afoot.

Wales to repeat their last performance in Dublin for me, but with a slightly wider margin of victory.

Ireland 12 Wales 23

The battle of the back rows will be tight but Wales have us at the ground game. Tipuric is a freak. He would make most international teams at 7. Heaslip is a better player than Faletau. Faletau is a more powerful carrier but Heaslip has a far higher work rate, better on the ground, makes more tackles etc.
Wales definitely have the better 2nd row partnership. Toner isn't playing as well as he was in 2014 and McCarthy is 34ish. Ryan is our back up who is completely out of form with a 22 year old non capped 2nd rower as another option. POC and Henderson's loss will definitely be felt.
I'd say the front rows will be slightly in Ireland's favour. I honestly haven't heard of Evans before but, if he isn't that great at scrummaging, Furlong and White will take him to the cleaners. I'd have Best over Baldwin. McGrath is a serious unit. Great at scrummaging, rucking, tackling and carrying. I'd say he could get the better of Lee. He drove Lee back in the last 6N in the first scrum of the game. Lee got injured from that scrum, but I can't say if he injured his ankle due to McGrath's efforts in the scrum.

 

[profitius]

Its hard to know what Ireland team will be picked or how they'll play. Or maybe I'm deluding myself and it'll be the same old Schmidt Mannschaft.

If Ireland play their in form players in their best positions, I can see them scoring tries. If not, it will probably be another attritional arm wrestle which the Welsh love.

 

[corny]

The Welsh back row on Saturday is going to give a real injection of pace and two top quality 7's in tandem is a luxury many teams cannot muster. I simply don't believe Heaslip is as good as Faletau aside from his famed lung busting runs Toby is a better player in every aspect. Ruddock, SOB and Heaslip will do well to get parity, they are not 'easily a match' by any means.

Well i'd obviously disagree with that but thats ok. As i see it, SOB is better than Tipuric (offers more than Warburton too if we're honest) and Heaslip is better than Faletau.

You don't have to take my word for it though. You can check the stats if you like? Heaslip tackles more, works harder and effects more turnovers. Faletau is a more dynamic carrier thats it. Sure even Gatland, who had absolutely no problem picking Welsh lads for the Lions, thought Heaslip was better.

 

[Groundhog]

Heaslip doesn't bring much outside of his "long busting runs"? It's either Opposite Day or 2007.

 

[munstermuffin]

Well i'd obviously disagree with that but thats ok. As i see it, SOB is better than Tipuric (offers more than Warburton too if we're honest) and Heaslip is better than Faletau.

You don't have to take my word for it though. You can check the stats if you like? Heaslip tackles more, works harder and effects more turnovers. Faletau is a more dynamic carrier thats it. Sure even Gatland, who had absolutely no problem picking Welsh lads for the Lions, thought Heaslip was better.

Checked stats and well for last 2 years internationally. Faletau has more yards, carries and turnovers than Heaslip. Heaslip has made more tackles. Also Heaslip hasn't made a carry over 8m in a long time internationally.

And as expected Tipuric has more turnovers than SOB by a country mile. SOB has more yards and carries. Warburton has more turnovers and tackles than SOB too. Our main turnover man POM is out too.

And when it came to decisive 3rd test Gatland went for Faletau as his 8 so not sure last bit is correct. He said Faletau was more physical and offered a different presence at the time.

 

[corny]

Checked stats and well for last 2 years internationally. Faletau has more yards, carries and turnovers than Heaslip. Heaslip has made more tackles. Also Heaslip hasn't made a carry over 8m in a long time internationally.

The carries and metres made are hardly surprising. Lydiate and Warburton aren't noted carriers so its left to Faletau to get over the gainline. He's good at it. We use Healy, POC and SOB. Heaslip does the donkey work around that. Wouldn't have thought Faletau had more turnovers but there you go.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Massive game.
Pick of the round by a country mile.
Winner takes all?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

The carries and metres made are hardly surprising. Lydiate and Warburton aren't noted carriers so its left to Faletau to get over the gainline. He's good at it. We use Healy, POC and SOB. Heaslip does the donkey work around that. Wouldn't have thought Faletau had more turnovers but there you go.

Turnover is easiest to get when you're the second man in to the tackle/breakdown. Heaslip is a terrible lover and always comes first.

 

[AzaMatt]

And as expected Tipuric has more turnovers than SOB by a country mile. SOB has more yards and carries. Warburton has more turnovers and tackles than SOB too. Our main turnover man POM is out too.

you also have to take into account that for the most part tipuric only plays around 20 mins per match internationally apart from the odd start here and there

 

[Tony Manx]

Cannot see past a Welsh win here after the lay offs of key players through injury and retirements that Ireland have had to cope with!

That said, the Irish will be there in full cry, showing enormous spirit and spoiling everything as they always have.

The real conundrum is which Sexton will turn up.....the pre French sojourn brilliant one or the one of the last few seasons that seems to be undercooked from lengthy spells under concussion protocols?

Let us hope it is the former!!

 

[valley commando]

How is Cuthbert still in the Wales 23?

Yes exactly, perhaps he has caught one of the management with another woman.

 

[AzaMatt]

Yes exactly, perhaps he has caught one of the management with another woman.

im guessing they wanted a specialist winger to cover the wings, albeit a poor one. Amos should feel gutted unless cuthbert has been out performing him in training. my thinking is that priestland is there to cover fly half/full back, but more than likely if something happens to biggar, anscombe will move to 10 and priestland will go to full back. if cuthbert does come on i cant see it being untill the last 10-15 mins though

 

[Slamdunk]

The battle of the back rows will be tight but Wales have us at the ground game. Tipuric is a freak. He would make most international teams at 7. Heaslip is a better player than Faletau. Faletau is a more powerful carrier but Heaslip has a far higher work rate, better on the ground, makes more tackles etc.
Wales definitely have the better 2nd row partnership. Toner isn't playing as well as he was in 2014 and McCarthy is 34ish. Ryan is our back up who is completely out of form with a 22 year old non capped 2nd rower as another option. POC and Henderson's loss will definitely be felt.
I'd say the front rows will be slightly in Ireland's favour. I honestly haven't heard of Evans before but, if he isn't that great at scrummaging, Furlong and White will take him to the cleaners. I'd have Best over Baldwin. McGrath is a serious unit. Great at scrummaging, rucking, tackling and carrying. I'd say he could get the better of Lee. He drove Lee back in the last 6N in the first scrum of the game. Lee got injured from that scrum, but I can't say if he injured his ankle due to McGrath's efforts in the scrum.

Its funny how people see different things - i have that the other way around. Toby has never been an 8 in the traditional sense in terms of "Quinnelesque" barnstorming carries where Heaslip often breaks a gain line ball in hand. Ive always thought that the beauty of Toby is that he offers everything else, tackles, groundwork, link-work, being a go-to, helping the scrum out of trouble (he saved our skins in the last scrum v England RWC). Toby is, to me, the perfect back row forward, a freakish blend of blind-side, 8 and open-side.

you say tomato, i say tomAto i guess.

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im guessing they wanted a specialist winger to cover the wings, albeit a poor one. Amos should feel gutted unless cuthbert has been out performing him in training. my thinking is that priestland is there to cover fly half/full back, but more than likely if something happens to biggar, anscombe will move to 10 and priestland will go to full back. if cuthbert does come on i cant see it being untill the last 10-15 mins though

Cuthbert is a conundrum and I feel sorry for the lad. He was a devastating finisher and a regular try machine (despite his many weaknesses) and this knack for scoring tries saw him almost a more nailed on choice than North. As happens in sport, the tries have dried up and now all we have left is the rest of his game to concentrate on. his positional sense is poor, he cannot be trusted under a high ball and he makes poor choices under pressure.
After we scored the winning penalty against England in RWC it was Cuthbert who chased the kick, tackled VERY well, timed it perfectly and simply forgot to let go of Brown to put us under the cosh. He would have won a penalty had he got back up and challenged, it was an awful brain fart.
I certainly dont think he is in as a specialist wing. I think Gatland is trying to show faith in him to see if he can get his mojo back. It might be brilliant management, or it might cost us dearly, we will see.

 

[munstermuffin]

Regards Heaslip he hasn't carried over 20m in a game against top opposition for Ireland in long time but Ireland don't play per numbers on their back really. The backrow plays as a unit. POM is probably the best 7 if you look at stats and role. Not saying he is a 7 just the way the Irish backrow play it's more as a unit collectively as opposed to individual roles

 

[Duck a l'Orange]

Off topic slightly, but is Tommy O'Donnell involved in proceedings with Ireland this 6Ns?

He looked a wonderful, natural seven last year (or maybe the year before).

 

[Amiga500]

Jacko has been sent back up the road for "le tres petit crunch".... Ulster vs. the Dragons.

Which means wee Ian Gazzadgan is on the bench.

 

[munstermuffin]

Off topic slightly, but is Tommy O'Donnell involved in proceedings with Ireland this 6Ns?

He looked a wonderful, natural seven last year (or maybe the year before).

Just back from injury last few weeks. He's in camp but unlikely to play. He is a good 7 and possibly may get a chance.
@Amiga500 - all I can say is wow on that

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Meh, maybe if Ruan Pienaar was Irish Jackson would be a potential starter until he shows the consistency he has with Pienaar he'll make very few 23's.

 

[Hendo74]

Its funny how people see different things - i have that the other way around. Toby has never been an 8 in the traditional sense in terms of "Quinnelesque" barnstorming carries where Heaslip often breaks a gain line ball in hand. Ive always thought that the beauty of Toby is that he offers everything else, tackles, groundwork, link-work, being a go-to, helping the scrum out of trouble (he saved our skins in the last scrum v England RWC). Toby is, to me, the perfect back row forward, a freakish blend of blind-side, 8 and open-side.

you say tomato, i say tomAto i guess.

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Cuthbert is a conundrum and I feel sorry for the lad. He was a devastating finisher and a regular try machine (despite his many weaknesses) and this knack for scoring tries saw him almost a more nailed on choice than North. As happens in sport, the tries have dried up and now all we have left is the rest of his game to concentrate on. his positional sense is poor, he cannot be trusted under a high ball and he makes poor choices under pressure.
After we scored the winning penalty against England in RWC it was Cuthbert who chased the kick, tackled VERY well, timed it perfectly and simply forgot to let go of Brown to put us under the cosh. He would have won a penalty had he got back up and challenged, it was an awful brain fart.
I certainly dont think he is in as a specialist wing. I think Gatland is trying to show faith in him to see if he can get his mojo back. It might be brilliant management, or it might cost us dearly, we will see.

Totally agree re Cuthbert - a show of faith in a lad who's been subjected to some OTT criticism. Hope he can come good again.

 

[munstermuffin]

Ireland trained this way yesterday.

1. McGrath
2. Best
3. White
4. Toner
5. McCarthy
6. Stander
7. O'Donnell (SOB if fit)
8. Heaslip
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. Earls
12. Henshaw
13. Payne
14. Trimble
15. Zebo

Bench rumoured - Cronin Cronin Furlong Ryan Ruddock Reddan Madigan Zebo (if RK fit), DK (if Zebo starts)