Semi Final 1 - Canterbury v Wellington

[Darwin]

Both teams have been announced: (http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/itm-cup-heartland-championship/4277152/Canterbury-make-one-change-for-NPC-semifinal) (http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/itm-cup-heartland-championship/4278358/Wellington-make-two-changes-for-ITM-Cup-semifinal)

CANTERBURY: Sean Maitland, Tu Umaga-Marshall, Robbie Fruean, Ryan Crotty, Telusa Veainu, Colin Slade, Willi Heinz, Nasi Manu, Matt Todd, Ash Parker, Isaac Ross, Luke Romano, Peter Borlase, Steve Fualau, Wyatt Crockett (captain). Reserves: Paul Ngauamo, Andrew Olorenshaw, Rob Verbakel, Brendon O'Connor, Takerei Norton, Stephen Brett, Sam Monaghan.

WELLINGTON: Apoua Stewart, Julian Savea, Tajhon Mailata, Shaun Treeby, Alapati Leiua, Lima Sopoaga, TJ Perenara, Victor Vito, Scott Fugistaller, Faifili Levave, Api Naikatini, Jeremy Thrush (captain), Neemia Tialata, Dane Coles, John Schwalger. Reserves: Ged Robinson, Reg Goodes, Brad Shields, Dean Brunsdon, Ruki Tipuna, Fa'atonu Fili, Charlie Ngatai.

Should be an interesting battle up front - both teams have good props, though Wellington have a better hooker in Dan Coles. I'm not a big fan of any either teams locks, as they all tend to play a bit loose a times. The loose-forward battle will also be close - Vito and Levave should have the edge over their opposites, but Matt Todd should have the edge over Fugistaller.

How the young duo of Perenara and Sopoaga handle the pressure will determine the result of this game in my opinion - both a very talented, but lack the big game experience at this level. Likewise Canterbury should have the advantage in the midfield, with Crotty and Fruean a very good combination. There is not a lot between the teams out wide. The match-up between Savea and Veainu will be really interesting, as they were the two wings in the NZ under 20 team this year. Savea has received all the plaudits so far, but Veainu is the far more complete player at this stage.

Overall I'm picking Canterbury to bounce back from there poor performance last week, and win by 5-10 points.

 

[Shaggy]

Got to admit i'm not as confident about this one as I was before the Canterbury Waikato game last week, but i'll still go with the Cantabs as they are at home.

The Cantab forwards got found out a bit last week so they'll definitely have to improve to compete with Wellington.

I agree with the comments about Savea and Veainu, i think he had the better game when the two teams met in the round robin, and has had a great season ... I believe he's only 19, so he could be back in the NZ under 20s next year.

 

[Charles]

I can't decide if the attack is awesome or the defense crap or both but boy, soft soft tries...

Oh and Canterbury are infringing at almost every ruck, as usual...

 

[Charles]

Wellington are idiots. They're getting turned over at almost every ruck and they still play it wide without support or going for pick and goes on their own. Infuriating...Oh and if it was in France some of these canterbury players would not be doing **** in the rucks for a while...

 

[Shaggy]

I can't decide if the attack is awesome or the defense crap or both but boy, soft soft tries...

Oh and Canterbury are infringing at almost every ruck, as usual...

I think it was both - good attack, and poor defense ... I was impressed with Perenara ... he handled the pressure well

... 98 points scored Canterbury 57 Wellington 41

 

[nickdnz]

AArrggghhhhh. It's the same problem every year. Wellington have moments of brilliance, followed by moments of idiocy. Forget that Canterbury infringe every ruck, and the refs seem ridiculiously bias (John Schwalger blatantely scored that try). Wellington always **** up, and it isn't helped by idiots like Fili, who kick away every ball they get in stupid chips, that never work off. It's like he wants to be Dan Carter and be brilliant every play. **** off! Api Naikatini once again showed he is incompetent. Vito and Levavae both had blinders, but Fuglistaller just isn't quite good enough in the loose to help secure the balls. Sopoanga has moments of class, and moments where he shows his inexperience, but overall he went okay. Apoua Stewart had his best match, was a real shame he was moved to the wing, and Fili at fullback.

 

[Charles]

Agree Nick. Some baffling plays in this game...From an NH perspective, the skill level and athleticism is higher in the SH but you will never see such inept playmaking/game strategy in the north (except maybe the Ospreys who look rather fond of the razzle dazzle headless chicken style) at this level (semi final of a comp). Has to be said that Perenara and Sopoaga are really young though...

 

[Hurricane Nate]

Damn you Canterbury, damn you

 

[nickdnz]

Agree Nick. Some baffling plays in this game...From an NH perspective, the skill level and athleticism is higher in the SH but you will never see such inept playmaking/game strategy in the north (except maybe the Ospreys who look rather fond of the razzle dazzle headless chicken style) at this level (semi final of a comp). Has to be said that Perenara and Sopoaga are really young though...

Yeah, but you have to remember it is D2. It was messy, and it lacked a lot of form, but it isn't the best example of SH rugby. In the Super 14, most teams play a different style. NZ teams often still play very loose, but there is more control about it. It's also worth remembering that Canterbury had Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Sonny Bill Williams, Owen Franks, Ben Franks, Sam Whitelock, Cory Flynn, Brad Thorn, Kieren Readm, George Whitelock and Andy Ellis missing. That's their starting front row, locking department, loose forwards, 9-10 and 12. Wellington had missing, Alby Mathewson, Peri Weepu, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Hosea Gear and Cory Jane (+ Rodney So'oialo has pretty much been dropped). That is a lot of quality players, with a lot of experience in the Super 14 and International level. The only team that can play the loose and often get away with it, is the Hurricanes, and even then there is more control.

Canterbury's franchise the Crusaders, usually plays very controlled and tactical rugby, but with so many cool heads missing in the ITM Cup, that can pretty much go out the window.

 

[Sneaki]

Ugh. Not again... Well there were some good points as usual, but I really thought, had they played just slightly smarter Wellington could have won this game easily. Canterbury were very far from their best, they looked at times every bit as vulnerable as they looked last week against Waikato.

The Wellington defence was almost non-existant at times. Guys like Freuan and Maitland are great players for sure, but they didn't even have to shift out of second gear to get past Wellington. And I don't quite get why Mailata is preferred over the combination of Ngatai and Treeby at 12/13, to me those two are basically a younger version of the Nonu/Smith combination..

Looking at the starting 15 it is really hard to believe how effectively this team chokes every year. The front row is arguably the best in the competition, the second row may be a little inconsistent (I agree that Naikatini is a liability, he's been around long enough now), but the back row isn't to shabby either (why Vito isn't in Hong Kong right now is still beyond me), the 9/10 combination has enourmous potential for sure, the two wingers are both very dangerous and Stewart is becoming a very handy fullback.

Ah well, hopefully the Canes and Lions will do better next year. Especially since I'm probably moving down to Wellington next year, it'd be nice if I had a winning team to go and watch every couple of weeks...

 

[donmcdazzle]

Have to sort of take my hat off to both teams for letting the ball fly in a semi final. Good on them both. Defensive organisation was a bit sloppy from both but there was some nice attacking stuff too.

Fili is a shocker, his silly tricks work well in club rugby but he's a homeless man's spencer/cooper at this level. Can;t agree more with the sentiments about Naikitini, no idea how he commands a spot. Fugistaller too i agree is a bit off the pace compared to Levave and Vito.

 

[Muzzy]

ah Wellington the biggest chokers in rugby followed by nz in world cups, they never disappoint in finals do they

robbie fruean had a blinder, wellington were doing ok but just some silly mistakes gave the game away. sopoaga played well just a few little mistakes but once he gets more experience he'll be a world class player, i just hope moving to otago doesn't ruin his career as he won't get as much game time as he would have with wellington. Savea showed his class too and i was suprised when both savea and fruean weren't in the ab's team.

i don't see what you guys mean by Naikatini though, he did fine, just because he couldn't cover Tialata's poor defense and tackle Maitland at full speed doesn't mean he had a bad game

 

[Amobokoboko]

Seemed to be a good games with lots of scoring from botyh sides.

 

[donmcdazzle]

i don't see what you guys mean by Naikatini though, he did fine, just because he couldn't cover Tialata's poor defense and tackle Maitland at full speed doesn't mean he had a bad game

not just in that game, over his career he just hasn't ever played that well. Unsure how he keeps getting picked, injuries to other guys this season have helped him i guess.

 

[smartcooky]

I can't decide if the attack is awesome or the defense crap or both but boy, soft soft tries...

Oh and Canterbury are infringing at almost every ruck, as usual...

Perhaps you would like to explain exactly what you think they are doing that is illegal.

Its easy to say, "oh they are infringing", not so easy to relate it to the Laws of the Game.

 

[nickdnz]

i don't see what you guys mean by Naikatini though, he did fine, just because he couldn't cover Tialata's poor defense and tackle Maitland at full speed doesn't mean he had a bad game

He's useless. He makes the wrong decision 90% of the time. During the game he would consistantly get the ball, and then run away from support. I think he's responcible for something like 32% of the teams knock on's in the last 5 games, which is a lot. His only merit is that he can (poorly) cover blindside, which gives an extra line out option, but his work in the loose was terrible.

 

[Sam Owen]

AArrggghhhhh. It's the same problem every year. Wellington have moments of brilliance, followed by moments of idiocy. Forget that Canterbury infringe every ruck, and the refs seem ridiculiously bias (John Schwalger blatantely scored that try). Wellington always **** up, and it isn't helped by idiots like Fili, who kick away every ball they get in stupid chips, that never work off. It's like he wants to be Dan Carter and be brilliant every play. **** off! Api Naikatini once again showed he is incompetent. Vito and Levavae both had blinders, but Fuglistaller just isn't quite good enough in the loose to help secure the balls. Sopoanga has moments of class, and moments where he shows his inexperience, but overall he went okay. Apoua Stewart had his best match, was a real shame he was moved to the wing, and Fili at fullback.

Yeah your right, I usually like Faatonu Fili but he didnt go to good. When he wasnt kicking the ball away, he'd take the line on and the Cantab's would turn the ball over from him. Little to no impact of the bench from Faatonu.

Mailata didnt do a good job of marking Fruean. Although Mailata is a good strong attacker his defence was rather weak on Fruean. Robbies a great attacker so one miss tackle is unforgivable but understandable but it wasnt just one, I know there was 2 but it might have been more Im not certain. However take nothing away from Robbie he's still lethal and while he's lethal so is Canterbury.