World rankings

[TRF_stormer2010]

With the final week of June tests on hand I thought it might be interesting to look at the rankings.


World Rugby rankings (Top 10):


1. New Zealand 96.10 points (NZ cannot gain points off of Wales but a loss will concede two log points and see them at 94.10 and a loss by 15+ at 93.10 which would still see them keep top spot no matter what.)


2. England 88.50 (can go to 89.49 with a win or 89.99 with a win by 15+ while a defeat will see them at 86.99)


3. South Africa 86.03 (SA can't climb a lot but a win will take us to 86.32 or 86.47 on 15+. Losses see us drop to 84.32 or a bg loss to 83.47)


4. Australia 85.43 (Aussie can't overtake England any more but wins will see them climb to 86.44 or 86.49 on a win by 15+. Losses at home will hurt with a loss seeing them go to 84.44 or even 83.94 at a heavy loss by 15+)


5. Argentina 82.87 (A win or 15+ win will see Arg go to 83.09 or 83.20 respectively. Losses to 81.09 or even 80.20 on a loss by 15+)


6. Wales 82.49 (Wales cannot lose points to NZ. A win will see them climb to 84.49 or in the unlikely event of dominating NZ by 15+ 85.49)


7. Ireland 81.96 (Ireland have everything to play for in week 3 and any win will see them at 83.67 while a win by 15+ will see them leapfrog us to 84.52)


8. Scotland 79.50


9. France 78.09 (France will drop to 77.87 or 77.76 on a heavy loss of 15+ A win will take them to 79.87 or even ahead of Argentina if they can come up with 15+ point win to 80.76)


10. Fiji 77.14

Personally I don't see the rankings order change.

The sad thing is the ceeding will only take place at the end of December 2017 and not this year. I have to admit I quite enjoyed the drama surrounding the 'perfect storm' that had created the scenario for Aussie, England and Wales all to have been in the same pool which is ridiculous but fun (at least for the neutral). So because of that the actual rankings are merely academic at this stage. I wouldn't know how reflective they might be of an accurate status quo though.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

http://www.skysports.com/rugby-unio...gby-world-cup-pool-draw-date-set-for-may-2017

Stormer - RWC draw takes place in May 2017, so rankings post 6Ns 2017 will be the most important for seeding countries for the draw.

 

[CocoPampas]

Thanks for the detailed info.
For Argentina it means that we can't gain any spot, but we can drop 2 if we loose our match, even 3 if we suffer a heavy defeat.

 

[ianw16]

So, playing at home, the ABs could absolutely smash any team in the world, and their ranking points won't change! If you are more than 10 pts ahead of your opponent, you cannot gain points. The home team is given an extra 3 pts on top of their ranking to account for the advantage of playing at home. England are 7.6 points behind NZ, so NZ with home advantage would be rated 10.6 ahead. As things currently stand, NZ could only improve their ranking points by winning away to England, SA and Oz.

I'm assuming NZs current ranking points are the highest ever recorded?

 

[Aotearoa_]

Can points be earned during a Lions tour?

NZ could only improve their ranking points by winning away to England, SA and Oz.

I'm expecting us to win all our games away this season. So hopefully we can earn some more points and next season away vs England.

 

[Which Tyler]

Can points be earned during a Lions tour?

Yes, but as far as I'm aware, not by the lions or their opponents.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

so England have to play
June 25th - Aus (A)
NOV 12th - SA (H)
NOV 19th - Fiji (H)
NOV 26th - Arg (H)
DEC 3rd - Aus (H)
FEB 4th - Fra (H)
FEB 11th - Wales (A)
FEB 25th - Italy (H)
MAR 10th - Scot (H)
MAR 18th - Ire (A)
Draw.

 

[ncurd]

so England have to play
June 25th - Aus (A)
NOV 12th - SA (H)
NOV 19th - Fiji (H)
NOV 26th - Arg (H)
DEC 3rd - Aus (H)
FEB 4th - Fra (H)
FEB 11th - Wales (A)
FEB 25th - Italy (H)
MAR 10th - Scot (H)
MAR 18th - Ire (A)
Draw.

They could conceivably win everyone of those....they probably won't...

Here's an interesting question with NZ unable to gain ranking points before the draw (they aren't playing any of the teams in fixtures they can gain points in) unless they loose some games and regain them....can we go to no. 1 in the world but not having played them in well over 2 years....

 

[Which Tyler]

They could conceivably win everyone of those....they probably won't...

Here's an interesting question with NZ unable to gain ranking points before the draw (they aren't playing any of the teams in fixtures they can gain points in) unless they loose some games and regain them....can we go to no. 1 in the world but not having played them in well over 2 years....

Yes; but only if NZ lose

 

[ncurd]

Yes; but only if NZ lose

Yup just put through a predictor with max ranking victories and we'd only get to 91.82.....so NZ will have to drop points for us to get there.

 

[Which Tyler]

Yeah - it makes sense; the further ahead you get of the pack, the fewer points you get from beating them - to the point that NZ can't increase their ranking points by beating anyone at all (unless and until someone launches a serious challenge by also going undefeated for a while).
IF NZ go 3 years undefeated; including a RWC (double ranking points); whilst England go 2 years undefeated - then NZ will be ahead of England.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

http://www.skysports.com/rugby-unio...gby-world-cup-pool-draw-date-set-for-may-2017

Stormer - RWC draw takes place in May 2017, so rankings post 6Ns 2017 will be the most important for seeding countries for the draw.

Noted, thank you. +1

Thanks for the detailed info.
For Argentina it means that we can't gain any spot, but we can drop 2 if we loose our match, even 3 if we suffer a heavy defeat.

Welcome to the top!

So, playing at home, the ABs could absolutely smash any team in the world, and their ranking points won't change! If you are more than 10 pts ahead of your opponent, you cannot gain points. The home team is given an extra 3 pts on top of their ranking to account for the advantage of playing at home. England are 7.6 points behind NZ, so NZ with home advantage would be rated 10.6 ahead. As things currently stand, NZ could only improve their ranking points by winning away to England, SA and Oz.

I'm assuming NZs current ranking points are the highest ever recorded?

On the first paragraph; I would say welcome to the absolute high mark but you've been tehre for a good while and should be used to this by now surely! You'll probably stay top for a good while yet. You'd have to lose three games or two games badly and England would have to win all their games for you to drop from 1st. SA and Aus could climb above you if we win almost all our games and beat you twice. I can't see us doing so ATM and can't see Aus either.

On your question/assumption, I'm not 100% sure but even if its not its close enough and certainly not a wild assumption.

Can points be earned during a Lions tour?

I'm expecting us to win all our games away this season. So hopefully we can earn some more points and next season away vs England.

Yes, but as far as I'm aware, not by the lions or their opponents.

LOL, that took me longer than it should've but I did LOL in the end. +1.

They could conceivably win everyone of those....they probably won't...

Here's an interesting question with NZ unable to gain ranking points before the draw (they aren't playing any of the teams in fixtures they can gain points in) unless they loose some games and regain them....can we go to no. 1 in the world but not having played them in well over 2 years....

Possible but highly unlikely. You could win all your remaining matches till then it wouldn't surprise me overly much but I can't see NZ lose 2/3 games in the space of less than a year the way things stand. You don't face them and that probably leaves SA and Aus at home with the best shot but TBH I'd be surprised if either manages nevermind both, certainly not by 15+ and then also probably not someone else unless the Welsh/Irish and/or French get inspired;
NZ remaining fixtures; Wales (H), Aus (A), Aus (H), Arg (H), SA (H), Aus (H), Arg (A), SA (A), Ireland (USA), Italy (A), Ireland (A), France (A).

 

[Brigantine]

So with the tours to the Southern Hemisphere by England, Wales, Ireland, France and Georgia taken together, the score is:

Southern Hemisphere - 6 (NZ x3, SA x2, Arg x1)
Draw - 1 (Samoa v Georgia)
Northern Hemisphere - 7 (Eng x3, Ire x1, Fra x1, Geo x2)

Italy went on tour and made one stop on the Southern Hemisphere - which Argentina won. So if you include that you can call it a tie between the hemispheres.

If you include the Chiefs vs Wales game, that's +1 for the SH but then you would need to include the England Saxons' 2 wins vs South Africa A as well.

In terms of rankings points, it's all one way:

England gains 4.89 from Australia (it seems 0.01 vanishes to rounding too)
Ireland gains 1.34 from South Africa (despite losing the series)
France gains 2.39 from Argentina
Georgia gains 2.61 (1.65 from Fiji, 0.87 from Tonga, 0.07 from Samoa, 0.02 from rounding)

No points exchanged in NZ v Wales or Arg vs Italy

NH gains 11.23 from SH
6N gain 8.63 from 4N

The net points won by 6N countries *stay within the 6N countries* until the November international window. the 4N countries can only fight over a smaller pool of rankings points between them, until November.

In the European Nations cup, Georgia can now ONLY win points from Romania, as Russia, Spain, Germany, Belgium are 13+ points below them. It's as if the All Blacks were playing in the 6 Nations!

 

[saulan]

So with the tours to the Southern Hemisphere by England, Wales, Ireland, France and Georgia taken together, the score is:

Southern Hemisphere - 6 (NZ x3, SA x2, Arg x1)
Draw - 1 (Samoa v Georgia)
Northern Hemisphere - 7 (Eng x3, Ire x1, Fra x1, Geo x2)

Italy went on tour and made one stop on the Southern Hemisphere - which Argentina won. So if you include that you can call it a tie between the hemispheres.

Italy is NH, and Argentina is SH. Not sure why that match wouldn't be counted in this if Georgia and the Pacific Islands are?

I wouldn't count any other tour matches as they aren't official international matches and don't count to ranking points.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Scotland v Japan?

 

[saulan]

Scotland v Japan?

NH vs NH.

 

[ncurd]

NH vs NH.

Japan aren't NH that's merely a geography thing. They deserve to be stuck in whichever group the Pacific islanders are in.

NH & SH are just names for the Tier 1 teams and the respective competitions they play in. If you don't play in them your not really considered SH or NH.

 

[saulan]

Japan aren't NH that's merely a geography thing. They deserve to be stuck in whichever group the Pacific islanders are in.

NH & SH are just names for the Tier 1 teams and the respective competitions they play in. If you don't play in them your not really considered SH or NH.

You mean the only thing that actually defines if a country is NH or SH?

I know some people lump NH and SH based on where they play, but I don't like it. Japan is nowhere near being in the SH.

Also last year it was counted as a NH win when Japan beat us. Why do they change to SH now? Because of the Sunwolves? They haven't played more international matches against SH teams this year and have their internal league still running. In fact they haven't played any SH nations this year and have played six NH nations. Their main international tournament is in the NH (Asian Rugby Championship). Yes, they have played in the Pacific Nations Cup, but at the same time so did Canada and USA and they aren't considered SH.

Maybe at a point when Japan is actually in a SH only tournament then yes I think we can start talking about them being a part of some 'SH' group. But right now they simply aren't. One Super Rugby team doesn't make them SH.

And also, the Pacific Islands have similar latitudes of Australia, whereas Japan has almost the same, but in the other hemisphere (25.27 south vs 36.20 north)

 

[Brigantine]

Their games didn't count in terms of tables and qualifying, but in terms of scheduling Georgia played in the Pacific Nations Cup this year.

Does that mean Georgia is now Southern Hemisphere?

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

You mean the only thing that actually defines if a country is NH or SH?

I know some people lump NH and SH based on where they play, but I don't like it. Japan is nowhere near being in the SH.

Also last year it was counted as a NH win when Japan beat us. Why do they change to SH now? Because of the Sunwolves? They haven't played more international matches against SH teams this year and have their internal league still running. In fact they haven't played any SH nations this year and have played six NH nations. Their main international tournament is in the NH (Asian Rugby Championship). Yes, they have played in the Pacific Nations Cup, but at the same time so did Canada and USA and they aren't considered SH.

Maybe at a point when Japan is actually in a SH only tournament then yes I think we can start talking about them being a part of some 'SH' group. But right now they simply aren't. One Super Rugby team doesn't make them SH.

And also, the Pacific Islands have similar latitudes of Australia, whereas Japan has almost the same, but in the other hemisphere (25.27 south vs 36.20 north)

I've always considered Japan a 'Southern Hemisphere' team. They spent four or five years in the Pacific Nations Cup with Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, NZ and Australia.