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This year's Rugby World Cup will, unless an unfeasible series of lamentable disasters befalls them in the next 6 months, be dominated by the Tri Nations teams with the majority of the 6 Nations teams filling losing quarter final places. However there will be other teams looking to upset at least one of the big boys during the group stages and while I don't expect any of these teams to still be in the tournament come October I'd thought I'd take at look which teams could give the big boys an uncomfortable 80 odd minutes during September.
Fiji are ranked 10th in the current IRB world rankings, just 1 place lower than Scotland but they are currently ranked as a 1000-1 shot compared to Scotland's odds of 100-1 ! The Fijian's love of open space combined with their sheer physical presence will provide much excitement during the tournament. Wales in particular will be nervous about facing a team who they have struggled against of late. Of late Fijian imports have been atop the shopping lists of many a rich rugby team owner in France's Top 14 competition and currently 9 of their squad play their trade in this division. Fijian backs are particularly en vogue in the French league and players like the 106 kg Centre Seru Rabeni, 6ft 3 inch Winger Napolioni Nalaga and the equally tall and 104 kg Winger Albert VuliVuli will provide even the sternest defence a problem or two. Fiji's biggest obstacle in previous tournaments has been their lack of a number 10 who can organise and keep his head under pressure, however the displays of Isa Nacewa in Leinster's Heineken Cup winning season are reason for optimism on that front. If Fiji can maintain their discipline and stay away from set piece laden games they will be exciting to watch.
Fiji start their campaign with a game against the 5000-1 shots Namibia while the 2 "big guns" in their group South Africa and Wales face each other in a bruising encounter a day later. A week later they face their toughest test against South Africa and unless Wales can manage an almost thinkable upset in the first week South Africa would probably settle for a comfortable win and no injuries with games against Samoa and Namibia rounding off their group fixtures. Fiji's penultimate group match will be a hotly contested clash with their Pacific Island neighbours and rivals Samoa. While the 2 teams have only met 3 times in the last 3 year Fiji do hold a slight edge with 2 victories and 1 loss and another victory in their group game would provide a mouth watering finale to the group with Fiji taking on Wales for second place in the group and a place in the Quarter Finals.
Fiji's near neighbours Samoa are another of the teams who are expected to struggle in the group phase of the tournament, but despite being ranked 11th in the world by the IRB they are priced as 500-1 shots for the cup. Their physicality is undoubtedly their strong suit but in the last 4 or 5 years the rise of their 7's team has seen Samoa's skills improve drastically. The 7's side have also unearthed some seriously quick players and the likes of Mikaele Pesamino of Sale Sharks, Lolo Lui and back rowers like Alafoti Fa'osiliva will relish any open space they can find. Like Fiji set pieces have always been problematic for Samoa but with the experience of front rowers like Census Johnson, skipper Mahonri Schwalger combined with the size and strength of 19 stone 23 year old Na'ama Leleimalefaga from Top 14 play off finalists Montpellier should stabilise their scrum.
Samoa's first group fixture is also against Namibia and will provide them with a valuable chance to familiarize themselves with World Cup rugby and should give them their first bonus point win of the group. Their second group game against Wales will bring back happy memories for Samoan fans and Coach "Dicky Tafua since 2 of their most famous wins were against Wales in World Cups, once in 1991, when Tafua captained the team in a game played in Cardiff Arms Park and again in Cardiff in 1999 at the Millennium Stadium. Their third group game is the Pacific Island derby against Fiji and that could provide a very tense affair as it could be the game that decides second place in the group. Samoa will hope to have secured second place before their final group match which sees them pitted against group favourites South Africa.
While I can really only see South Africa winning group D given Wales recent drab performances, lackluster form and the expected improvement from both Fiji and Samoa second place should be very hotly contested.
Blog by @Buck_Mitchell
