like it was impossible to loose against the argies ... anyway the team who will win this fr-ire will go to 1/4. the 3 teams could finish first like 3rd ...
[/b]
Well, the probabilities (without counting in any draw) are as follows:
This are the Actual points
Arg 9
Ire 9
Fra 6
Geo 1
Nam 0
Take a (+) as game won to this country (for instance, Ar: -Ir, + Na means that Ar will lose against Ireland and win against Namibia)
Stars are the most probable results, and parenthesis are my final-points prediction and why.
Possible final points
* Ar: + Ir, + Na 17, 18 or 19 (18, no bonus from Ire)
* Ar: - Ir, + Na 13, 14 or 15 (15, bonus from Ire)
Ar: + Ir, - Na 13, 14 or 15
Ar: - Ir, - Na 9, 10 or 11
Ir: + Fr, + Ar 17, 18 or 19
* Ir: -Fr, + Ar 13, 14 or 15 (14, no bonus from Ar, bonus from Fr)
Ir: + Fr, - Ar 13, 14 or 15
* Ir: -Fr, - Ar 9, 10 or 11 (go home)
* Fr: +Ge, + Ir 14, 15 or 16 (14, no bonus from Ir nor from Geo)
* Fr: +Ge, - Ir 10, 11or 12 (go home)
Fr: - Ge, - Ir 6, 7 or 8
Fr: - Ge, + Ir 10, 11 or 12
If I am not wrong, that means that Arg should go 1st, and France 2nd (more tries than Ireland) to die with the All blacks, and Arg with probabilities to win over Scotland and to die with South Africa (unless a miracle help us, to be realistic)
Tho only possibility I see to be the reverse case, is Ar losing with Ire and France winning both games with bonus from both games.
Who does agree with this analysis?
