Which team and why will win The Super 15?

[Hulk Hogan]

I wasn't talking about you, so don't worry

I was also referring to other topics on this matter where things like these are said. I think my choice of words was a bit unfortunate

Wink wink nudge nudge say no more

 

[d1e1m]

I don't actually recall saying the Reds will win anything , I doubt they'll even make the top 5 again. I just use them as a point, that having a star studded team means that team will be good.
So before you attack me on the sole reason that I support the Reds, maybe read my posts a bit better kthanks.

Normally, I'd agree that star players doesn't necessarily make for a star team, case in point, the Ospreys teams of the past 3 years. The Crusaders, and Canterbury for that matter, are a different beast altogether. Its not just the players, its the winning mentality, the work ethic, the attrition caused by their defense and offense. People also forget they've been rebuilding since 07-08 and their current ANZCup and ITM CUp ***les have been won with their upcoming youngsters and reserve players, not their AllBlack stars unlike other provinces. This is a team that knows how to win, whether beautiful rugby or old, hard gritty play.

The Reds deserve lots of credit for injecting the new offensive style of quick running rugby, like the Stormers did.

On another note, notice how the Saders loosies, with the exception of G Whitelock, can interchange positions quite well. They don't emphasize one set style of loose forward but they manage to do everything quite well from support play to rucking to running the ball. Plus, if you don't think Read running crash ball is scary, you haven't been watching the All Blacks.

PS: Matt Todd, I can't wait to see this guy in action, reminds me of Read when he was coming up. Future Rugby God indeed.

 

[ranger]

Kingi hardly played for the Reds and is at the Rebels now.
Morahan is a 3rd choice winger, probably 4th choice now.
Slipper I don't like his face, Daley is also an International
International level doesn't mean anything at Super rugby level. I look forward to the Reds vs Saders game this year, Ioane, SBW and Fruean in one game, lets hope they don't all collide at once and split the atom.

I never said anything about who those guys played for.. I just picked some of the token "international" players that have been picked in wallabies squads to show the difference between merely international and a quality player..

Also, Great post ezequial. I agree with pretty much everything, although i think the NZ conference will be a bit closer than you think.

I have said it a few times now but the Highlanders are looking very good now. . They have a top notch roughneck pack (complete with probably the hardest working, grinding loosies in NZ) and pretty close to the perfect backline to compliment them. I'm not so sure that they are easy beats anymore. They only question mark i see over them is coaching.

The Cheifs are a mystery. They can beat anyone and get beaten by anyone. Alot of their sucess will rest on Donald, and to his credit he invarably steps up at this level. They have the firepower to attack from anywhere on the field, including the best mix of running loose forwards around. The Highlanders are likely to win or loose by three, the Cheifs could win or lose to anyone by +/-20

The Blues have the player depth to win the entire competition. All they need is for everyone to play near potential at the same time, for someone to step up and do a good job in the 10 jersey, and for the coaches to try and not be useless.

The Hurricanes have a fairly impotent pack, and topclass backs. Although that has always been the case for them and they have made it to the finals before... If Cruden steps up, Weepu recovers ,and the tight 5 manages to hold parity then they could do alright. I wouldnt bet on them making the top 4 however. Especially with a new inexperienced coach.

The Crusaders are favourites for me. They have player talent to rival any other team at every position. They can pull off any tactic and their attack can be spearheaded by anyone on the park. They have no need to rely on one or two guys like some of the other sides, which is ridiculous in a team containing Carter, Fruean, Dagg, SBW etc..

NZ conference prediction:
1)Crusaders
2)Blues
3)Chiefs (Just)
4)Highlanders
5)Hurricanes

 

[JJR]

1 - Ben Franks can play both sides, very strong scrummager and part of the new breed of props who keep up with the loosies
2 - Cory Flynn is weakest of the pack because he is prone to injuries and lapses in form. Lineout is his biggest weakness but good in support play
3 - Owen Franks think he's a bit insane, he always looks a little to excited to be scrummaging. one of the best tightheads in the world, very strong and like his bro, very good in support and running the ball. Prone to knockons
4 - BRAD THORN (cause I always see him howling) the enforcer, always good for a hit on Habana, will need to be managed but you rarely see him not go ballsout for 80 min.
5 - Sam Whitelock /with Chris Jack not too far behind plus Whitelock can also shift to 6 should the need arise, very athletic.
6 - Matt Todd - rate him over George Whitelock, like McCaw, his name is mentioned at least 100 times a game.
7 - King Richie
8 - Kieran Read - my favorite player, on form for the last 3 years, arguably best 8 in the world right now and he is still improving.

Granted, this leaves Saders playing with 2 specialist opensides but the new laws make the old enforcer 6 obsolete. Saders have Thorn, Franks Bros, Read, Fruean and SBW, all players who can and will give crashball. Don't get me wrong, Choo CHoo train Waldrom was quality crash but I will always prefer Read over him. You've forgotten that the Franks and Read worked the Boks all over the field during the TN, and they weren't exactly dominated by the opposing pack. Our weakest position is probably Flynn who has never been able to hold form but he's not a bad player.

Both Franks good...locks are pretty average in my opinion, read and ritchie are good, but still no big crash ball flank. Centre's can't do all the crash ball when flat footed all the time...a proper beefy flank will be required; without one the centre's often forget to pass the ball and start to crash it too much in order to give team go forward. Also when a centre takes it up to give go forward he gets taken out of the game when they do get the go forward...eg u will get forwards in the centre channel for that time. Agree flynn is not great...not bad for a impact player off the bench.

 

[Sam Owen]

Ill go with Bulls, Stormers, Crusaders and Reds (hard to pick these guys over the 'tahs)...and possibly the Blues. Well those are my top 5 I was going to write Stormers only and then when I went to write why I started thinking and thinking and now I have 5.

 

[ranger]

Both Franks good...locks are pretty average in my opinion, read and ritchie are good, but still no big crash ball flank. Centre's can't do all the crash ball when flat footed all the time...a proper beefy flank will be required; without one the centre's often forget to pass the ball and start to crash it too much in order to give team go forward. Also when a centre takes it up to give go forward he gets taken out of the game when they do get the go forward...eg u will get forwards in the centre channel for that time. Agree flynn is not great...not bad for a impact player off the bench.

Are you serious? Brad Thorn and Sam Whitelock bossed the Springboks around the park last year, what possible weaknesses do you think they have?
Also, having a big dumb crashball exponent isnt a necessity! They aren't required at all, its simply one option that the South Africans are particularly fond of. there are other ways to win a rugby match.
For instance, this was the Crusaders pack when they pulled off their unprecedented perfect season in 2002:

8 Scott Robertson
7 Richie McCaw
6 Reuben Thorne
5 Norm Maxwell
4 Chris Jack
3 Greg Feek
2 Mark Hammett
1 Greg Somerville

Where is the big crash ball flank there? there isn't one, yet they didnt lose a single match. You can gain momentum by the forwards employing pick and go and one off runners as a pack (Although as i said, Keiran Read is just as good a runner as any other 8 in the competition). By not using a big crashball runner they are able to use a second fetcher (Todd, Whitelock or Poff) to strangle possesion off other teams. Lets see how good these huge crashball runners are when they cant get their hands on the ball..

 

[d1e1m]

Are you serious? Brad Thorn and Sam Whitelock bossed the Springboks around the park last year, what possible weaknesses do you think they have?
Also, having a big dumb crashball exponent isnt a necessity! They aren't required at all, its simply one option that the South Africans are particularly fond of. there are other ways to win a rugby match.
For instance, this was the Crusaders pack when they pulled off their unprecedented perfect season in 2002:

8 Scott Robertson
7 Richie McCaw
6 Reuben Thorne
5 Norm Maxwell
4 Chris Jack
3 Greg Feek
2 Mark Hammett
1 Greg Somerville

Where is the big crash ball flank there? there isn't one, yet they didnt lose a single match. You can gain momentum by the forwards employing pick and go and one off runners as a pack (Although as i said, Keiran Read is just as good a runner as any other 8 in the competition). By not using a big crashball runner they are able to use a second fetcher (Todd, Whitelock or Poff) to strangle possesion off other teams. Lets see how good these huge crashball runners are when they cant get their hands on the ball..

Couldn't have said it better, Saders loose can do crash but can also play very well in the center channel linking up with the backs. THese are all-action loosies that can keep with the backs and still crunch it up with forwards. Plus Sam Whitelock does pretty well operating as a lock/loose forward, he likes to hang out at center as well. The danger of the Saders lies in that they have the mentality and the personnel to try anything imaginable. On paper, this is a dream team.

 

[Hulk Hogan]

The Reds big dumb crashball player drops the ball every time he does something amazing.
Hope Leroy invests in some hands this year.

 

[Sam Owen]

The Crusaders have the advantage that they get 4 topteams at home and travel to some of the more average teams. Unfortunately they miss out on the Rebels and Lions which, to anyone, would be 5 definite points.

Hurricanes have a pretty even pick in the draw with only the Sharks and Brumbies away to worry about and are wlcoming the Bulls and Reds at home

Blues miss out on 2 possible play-off teams with the Bulls and Brumbies and travel to Durban and Queensland as the only 2 places which can cost points in my opinion

NZ conference will go to the Crusaders with getting the topteams at home and easier matches on tour. I think the Blues will end up in second place of the NZ conference with the draw they have.

The Brumbies have the big advantage of missing out on the Bulls and Blues in this year's Super15. They get the Sharks and Crusaders on tour which are 2 very difficult games and welcome the Chiefs and Stormers in Canberra.

The Waratahs have a very tough draw with the Crusaders, Blues, Sharks and Bulls on tour. That is one of the toughest draws I've seen so far. They can end up with 0 points in all 4 matches. At home they get some definite points with the Cheetahs and Lions coming over and the Chiefs and Highlanders. Only the Chiefs can cause problems but the matches on tour are the problem fot the Tahs.

The Reds miss out on a play off candidate (Sharks) and a low-profile oponent (Highlanders). They welcome 3 top opponents with the Bulls, Blues and Crusaders. The Cheetahs will give them the chance of a sure 5-pointer at home. On tour they can snatch a win in Joburg with the Lions but the Stormers, Hurricanes and Chiefs are tough opponents.

Considering the roster, I think the Brumbies will make it through as conference leader.

Now this is a tough conference for me to predict. The Bulls miss out on the Brumbies and Blues and have the advantage of getting sure points at home against the Rebels and Highlanders. The Chiefs will visit Pretoria which is a rematch of the 2009 final which ended in a 61-17 win for Northern Transvaal. On the road it's tough with the Crusaders, Hurricanes and Reds.

The Sharks miss out on definite points with the Highlanders. Also the Reds won't match up with the 2007 finalist. At home the 4 teams are all tough with the Hurricanes, Blues, Waratahs and Brumbies but each of the matches can be won. On tour it's tough with the Crusaders but the Chiefs and especially the Rebels and Western Force can give them points for the Conference ***le.

The Stormers can stop worrying about the Tahs and Canes and travel to Auckland and Waikato. The Brumbies is a tough match too but the Rebels can be beaten with ease. At home they get the mighty Crusaders, the easy Highlanders, the Reds and the Force. This can go either way. Win 2, lose 2 or win all.

To me, the SA conference is most open for grabs and is the one where most points will be lost to others. As much as I hope the Sharks to finish top of the conference and with only 1 really tough match on tour that should be possible. The difference between the Sharks and Bulls in this conference will depend on how they will do in Canterbury. My money is on the Bulls with the Sharks right there only 1 or 2 points behind. The Stormers have a inter-conference schedule to tough to win the SA conf.

Yeah some good analysis there Eze and some good points. As a gambling man its a good read

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Glad you liked it Took me a while to get there but this will all be difficult to predict with all the exclusions in the roster. Next year it will be different without the World Cup and they will play all teams, not just 12 out of the other 14

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Glad you liked it Took me a while to get there but this will all be difficult to predict with all the exclusions in the roster. Next year it will be different without the World Cup and they will play all teams, not just 12 out of the other 14

Oh, that's good to hear. I was unaware that this is not the way the new structure is set up and thought the fact that everyone does not get at least 1 game against everyone else takes away something from the tournament. Damn but we will be seeing ong seasons in the future. I guess that means the end of seeing Springboks play in the Currie cup. This conference system can work but I would like to see it still only 1 game between each team working on a draw system. Hell, imagine the Stormers and Sharks playing a warm-up match, 2 S15 derbies, 2 Currie cup derbies and a possible extra 2 games should both reach play-offs which is a likelyhood. Crazy!

As for which team will win and why. Crusaders; too much class in depth and a decent enough draw. SA's top 3 teams will take points off of each other and the Crusaders will finish in the top 2 which means a home semi and that will be that IMO. Unless some of the NZ teams hold the Crusaders off at their respective homes and the Crusaders lose a couple on tour all while one of the Bulls/Sharks/Stormers dominate their conference. Can't see it go anywhere other than the Crusaders at least being favourites at this stage.

 

[Dizzy]

ive been waiting for the hurricanes to win this for years and years. They have always had the most electrifying backline of all the teams and for some reason can't manage to grasp the ***le.
We've constantly produced the best centres, our wingers have also been top notch and now this year I'm afraid to say it may be the worst year yet for the Canes.

I mean, we have Weepu, Gear, Nonu, Smith and Jane. All first selection All Blacks[bar Gear] but we can't seem to scrape it home.

We used to have Umaga, Smith/Nonu, Fa'atau, Lomu, Cullen and still couldn't pull it off.

The day the Hurricanes win the ***le is looming!...

 

[Hulk Hogan]

ive been waiting for the hurricanes to win this for years and years. They have always had the most electrifying backline of all the teams and for some reason can't manage to grasp the ***le.
We've constantly produced the best centres, our wingers have also been top notch and now this year I'm afraid to say it may be the worst year yet for the Canes.

I mean, we have Weepu, Gear, Nonu, Smith and Jane. All first selection All Blacks[bar Gear] but we can't seem to scrape it home.

We used to have Umaga, Smith/Nonu, Fa'atau, Lomu, Cullen and still couldn't pull it off.

The day the Hurricanes win the ***le is looming!...

You made a funny

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Stormers have the same thing. Habana, Fourie, de Villiers, de Jongh, Aplon but the lack of forward power (same as the 'Canes) is what kept them from snatching the ***le

 

[Sam Owen]

Lions, Reds, Force and Highlanders have been good underdog teams to watch. Reds probably deserve more respect than an underdog tag but IMO they play well under that tag. Highlanders seem to like getting close up to watch the cigar fade away from them. The Force with their new exciting signings in the backline will definately be another good team to watch. Lions just need that balance and consistency in their games, they either maginificent or woeful.

Go the underdogs this year, may you play well and lose to the Blues.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

As for the Blues... May they lose to all the other teams

 

[ranger]

ive been waiting for the hurricanes to win this for years and years. They have always had the most electrifying backline of all the teams and

for some reason

can't manage to grasp the ***le.
We've constantly produced the best centres, our wingers have also been top notch and now this year I'm afraid to say it may be the worst year yet for the Canes.

I mean, we have Weepu, Gear, Nonu, Smith and Jane. All first selection All Blacks[bar Gear] but we can't seem to scrape it home.

We used to have Umaga, Smith/Nonu, Fa'atau, Lomu, Cullen and still couldn't pull it off.

The day the Hurricanes win the ***le is looming!...

What do you mean "some reason" haha? You found the problem right there all the great players you named were backs. The Hurricanes tight five is now and has always been useless. Their openside has never been classy enough either.
Think about it, what would the All-time Hurricanes forward pack look like?

1)Bull Allen
2)Norm Hewitt/Andrew Hore
3)Gordon Slater
4)Paul ***o
5)Dion Waller
6)Jerry Collins
7)Kupu Vanisi
8)Rodney So'oialo

Its not great, not great at all.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

ive been waiting for the hurricanes to win this for years and years. They have always had the most electrifying backline of all the teams and for some reason can't manage to grasp the ***le.
We've constantly produced the best centres, our wingers have also been top notch and now this year I'm afraid to say it may be the worst year yet for the Canes.

I mean, we have Weepu, Gear, Nonu, Smith and Jane. All first selection All Blacks[bar Gear] but we can't seem to scrape it home.

We used to have Umaga, Smith/Nonu, Fa'atau, Lomu, Cullen and still couldn't pull it off.

The day the Hurricanes win the ***le is looming!...

That is because they have probably the 3rd most ineffective pack of the 15 teams. When Hurricanes fans list their teams, 9 times out of 10 they will not even mention the forwards LOL.

As a Stormers supporter I can sympathize as we probably have the 2nd most ineffective pack of the SA teams.

 

[d1e1m]

That is because they have probably the 3rd most ineffective pack of the 15 teams. When Hurricanes fans list their teams, 9 times out of 10 they will not even mention the forwards LOL.

As a Stormers supporter I can sympathize as we probably have the 2nd most ineffective pack of the SA teams.

A little harsh with the Loosies you have, a better and more well rounded set than the Sharks. The problems is that the Sharks and the Bulls pack and the Stormers backline make the STormers pack look very average. Other than Liebenburg and Van Zyl, can't think of any of the Stormers tight 5 I wouldn't mind having on a team. Bekker, while tall, can't even dethrone that walking ban magnet Bakkies.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

A little harsh with the Loosies you have, a better and more well rounded set than the Sharks. The problems is that the Sharks and the Bulls pack and the Stormers backline make the STormers pack look very average. Other than Liebenburg and Van Zyl, can't think of any of the Stormers tight 5 I wouldn't mind having on a team. Bekker, while tall, can't even dethrone that walking ban magnet Bakkies.

It is quite even but I would still call the Stormers pack behind the Bulls, Sharks and Cheetahs at full strength. We have better 2nd rowers than the Sharks and Cheetahs IMO (although the Sharks have made vast improvements over the last year) but ITO front rowers, we are a ways behind and the other packs do bully ours at times. Our backrowers are very good but we lack the depth of the other teams in this department. Not saying we are useless but a little behind the other three teams ITO the pack. We murder the Cheetahs when it comes to backline options, though. Bulls and Sharks have a weak point at outside center but manage and both teams arguably have better halfback combinations than us which is more important in any case.