1. 2016 RBS Six Nations Rugby Table - The Rugby Forum
    Table updated after last fixture of the weekend

Where do teams stand ahead of the WC?

Discussion in '2020 Guinness Six Nations' started by Reiser99, Mar 17, 2019.

  1. The Oggmonster

    The Oggmonster First XV

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    Another thing to keep in mind is that there is no Millenium stadium in Japan. Wales more than any other nation have made their home stadium a fortress and playing at home seems to give them an extra 30%. Wales three away performances in this year's 6N were far from convincing. France's second half capitulation gifted them a win, unconvincing against Italy and very fortunate not to receive multiple yellow cards against Scotland in the second half which could have led to a different result.

    For me, the three crucial factors to Wales's success are 1. Gatland (& Edwards), 2. Millenium stadium and 3. AWJ as captain.
     
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  3. Umaga's Witness

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    I think Ireland choked against wales. It doesn’t matter how much they improve their function if they choke like that. Simply, a lot of those mistakes wouldn’t have happened if they weren’t feeling the mental pressure. On the plus side maybe sexton will learn. I don’t know how much he has played behind a pack that isn’t dominating the breakdown, hence on the Backfoot and not receiving good service? Ireland have for a very long time been exceptional at recycling their own ball, not sure about his club sides?
     
  4. Umaga's Witness

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    I think Ireland choked against wales. It doesn’t matter how much they improve their function if they choke like that. Simply, a lot of those mistakes wouldn’t have happened if they weren’t feeling the mental pressure. On the plus side maybe sexton will learn. I don’t know how much he has played behind a pack that isn’t dominating the breakdown, hence on the Backfoot and not receiving good service? Ireland have for a very long time been exceptional at recycling their own ball, not sure about his club sides?
    There is a lot of randomness in rugby:, referee calls, bounce of the ball, injuries, choice of referee for certain teams, it’s 80 minutes not infinite time...
    I don’t think nz have a more than 79 percent chance of beating a given top 8 side, hence they are less than 50 percent chance of winning the whole thing. In other words they prob won’t win. Going into other world cups their odds were better.
    My probability breakdown would be
    Nz 29
    Wales 18
    Ireland 16
    Sa 16
    England 13
    Other 8

    But congrats to wales on the 6n!!!!!!
     
  5. truthteller

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    whilst I agree with much of what you say
    gats and edwards massive mill stad/arms park massive factor, officially the loudest stadium in the world and awj simply awesome
    2 out of these 3 will be present for the world cup
    plus the welsh fans will still travel enmasse

    Also wales whilst weaker away, they have beaten in the last year south africa in the usa, argentina they hammered away twice, won in paris (won 3 of the last 4 games in Paris) , won in rome (gats has won every match in rome) and edinburgh....(gatland has won every single match in edinburgh too) and won 3 lost 3 drawn 1 in dublin. Twickenham wales under gats have won 3 lost 4 in six nations / world cup plus lost 2 more friendlies...Theyve lost all 4 in new zeland by margins varyng from 14 to 40 point hammering..lost all 3 in australia by margins of less than 8 points each....These results suggests wales are competitive away from home but clearly over the years their away record in the tri nations has been very poor. Though as I say the last year has seen much improvement. Rugby is about the here and now not ancient history and the recent results are more important.

    Dont forget 10 of these welsh players played in the winning lions tour of australia and the draw in new zealand...this is what gats has given them, theyve actually played and won tests in new zealand and australia. that has to help their confidence.

    Wales will need to deal with the heat and the extra pressure from being grand slam champions.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2019
  6. truthteller

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    If we assume saturdays 15 was their current first team

    L Williams; North, J Davies, Parkes, Adams; Anscombe, G Davies; Evans, Owens, Francis, Beard, Jones (capt), Navidi, Tipuric, Moriarty.

    when all fit

    Wales 2nd team

    Halfpenny steff evans scott williams owen watkin hal amos patchell rhys webb faletau ellis jenkins shingler cory hill jake ball samson lee dee nicky smith

    Wales 3rd team

    Jonah holmes owen lane tyler morgan cory allen luke morgan jarod evans tom williams wainwright dan lydiate jamie davies seb davies brad davies dillon lewis ryan elias wyn jones

    That 2nd team has 3 or 4 british lions and seasoned test stars , 4 with over 50 caps, steff evans scores tries for fun, hapenny one of the top few kickers in the world, scott williams hell of a player, watkin looks class, amos class, scored 32 tries in 97 for dragons (a dreadful team) and 5 tries in 18 for wales , plays 15 centre and wing, patchell is more talented than anscombe , biggar and any other fly half in the uk, im ure his time will come..rhys webb world class 9 at toulon.. , , shingler scarlets legend, massive pace probably the fastest flanker in world rugby., used to hurdle and sprint also played cricket for glamorgan,, the front row is immensly powerful had loads of caps...I would expect that 15 to challenge or beat any side outside the top 5 of world rugby

    The 3rd team is obviously weaker but gatland has bled the likes of jonah holmes who looked classy, tyler morgan is classy has 4 caps , cory allen has had a hat trick in one of his 6 caps, both mid 20s...luke morgan has had a few caps and looked good...tom williams looks good, lydiate has done it all , 2 grand slams , lions tours, 50 odd caps, jamie davies olympic silver medaliist and scarlets legend , seb davies again gats has given him several caps he looks born for test rugby, brad davies has 30 odd caps, again that front row is immesnely strong.
    I think the front is suddenly the strongest area in welsh rugby, weird

    Overall theres a lot of quality in these 3 teams, maybe not the superstar shane williams or gareth edwards but everyone is quality, everyone has a degree of experience and there are loads of experienced leaders, AWJ immense leader, ken owens scarlets leader, jon foxy has done captaincy a fair bit, as has parkes, biggar too, webb, lydiate all have been captains.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2019
  7. Umaga's Witness

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    There some big margins for the bookies in that; adds up to over 150 percent likelihood that someone will win the World Cup. So can divide those odds by 1.5 to see what they really think the probabilities are. Means they are predicting a 61 percent likelihood that the all blacks will win, or about 8/5 in your terminology.

    I actually imagine their margins are larger this far out because they don’t want to get caught out by odds changing too much thus allowing people to hedge themselves. The probabilities will be built on longer term views at this stage , eg results over the last 4 years may all contribute, to account for that variation in form over time.
     
  8. The_Blindside

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  9. Old Hooker

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  10. RedruthRFC

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    Take a look at Betfair. Enough has been traded that the market is pretty well formed and is bettig to 103%.
     
  11. Old Hooker

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    If eveyone’s fit, I’d be thinking along the following lines. Compromises to be made in terms of captaincy and defensive shape in the backs and I also want a bench to seriously up the ante.

    1. Mako
    2. Hartley (c)
    3. Sinckler
    4. Lawes. Or Itoje, don’t mind which
    5. Kruis
    6. Underhill
    7. Curry
    8. Wilson
    9. Youngs. I suppose
    10. Ford
    11. May
    12. Faz
    13. Slade. Just wish he could play 12 as well on grass as on paper.
    14. Coka
    15. Watson

    16. George
    17. Genge
    18. Williams
    19. Itoje
    20. Binny
    21. Care
    22. Tuilagi
    23. Daly

    Coka’s the only real gamble. In fact the back 3 feels like the hardest area to choose. In my world Brown travels.
     
  12. bushytop

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    On the Slade at 12 point, he does ‘seem’ a better fit for inside centre... has it not worked out for him there? I know he had one or two of his early England games there but in fairness it can take a few games for a player to acclimate to test match rugby. Now he has found his feet at the level, maybe he should be given another try there.
     
  13. truthteller

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    along with josh adams, slade was the find of the championship...He was superb. few other new stars on the scene with ntamack and penaud too.
     
  14. Which Tyler

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    Yeah, he's only had a few games there for Exeter and England, and never looked comfortable. But he's never been given a decent shot at it, just the odd 60 minutes here and there, usually whilst swapping with his OC as often as not.
    I don't think he's been tried at IC at all since giving up on being a FH either. I also know he's expressed that henlrefers OC and FH to IC - but then every players prefers the position they've played most which bares no particular relation to where they play best.

    Mind you, Rob Baxter does seem to like playing people away from their position-of-best-fit.
    Slade is an IC all day long. Plays OC.
    Nowell is an OC all day long (or FB). Plays wing.
    Campagnaro is a world class player. Struggled to make the bench.
    Kvesic and SSimmonds are OSFs all day long. Plays #8.
    Ewers is a #8 all day long. Plays BSF.
    Armand is a BSF all day long. Plays OSF.

    It's one of the reasons I don't want Baxter lined up for England. I think he's excellent at a simple game plan, executed well, and getting the best out of reasonable players. But he's yet to get a single top-quality player and really get the best out of him (Slade may yet get there. But Nowell, LCD, Devoto should all be much further along now, Cordero was this good before arriving), his game plan is too set in stone, and he has this blind spot about player positions.
     
  15. bushytop

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    As I don’t watch much Prem I wasn’t aware of this Baxter idiosyncrasy. Considering how well Exeter have done, if he actually played his players in the correct positions they would probably win everything! :p
     
  16. Which Tyler

    Which Tyler First XV

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    Just remember, the above is an "unpopular opinion" For many, the emperor is fully clothed. :)
     
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  17. bushytop

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    Funnily enough, I just peddled another unpopular opinion on the Nations Cup thread... jinx!
     
  18. BPM

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    I’m not sure. Baxter is rightly lauded for doing a great job at Exeter. It’s a club that players clearly enjoy playing at and they’ve been very successful domestically, but they’ve been nowhere near as effective in Europe and tactically, they are a very one-dimensional side (albeit hard to stop).

    IMO, until Baxter shows that he can develop a more varied game plan, I don’t see Exeter improving. If anything, they may go backwards as other coaches find better ways of stopping them. He’s done brilliantly to get them to this point, but I’m not wholly convinced he can take them further. I hope he proves me wrong as he’s a likeable guy and we need more top English coaches.

    Hogg might make a difference, but he’s effectively replacing Cordero, so I’m half expecting it to be a similar scenario to the current one, where plan B is to hope Cordero can create something out of nothing (which he quite often does).

    Joe Simmonds may be the key. Steenson is very good for executing plan A, but if Simmonds is given more license/opportunity to run the game, I think he has the talent to have them playing a far more varied/less predictable style.
     
  19. Umaga's Witness

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    Thanks for that. Interesting site, didn’t know it existed. I’m thinking I just misinterpreted how to read fractional odds as I’m used to decimal odds so actually the odds posted by alpha bro didn’t have a big margin. Multiplying by 1.5 is still the right thing to do to get the probabilities though.

    I thought fractional odds were payback/ down payment, not profit/ down payment
     
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