URC March to the finals discussion

[saulan]

Team Points Remaining fixtures
1) Leinster 65 LLW
2) Ulster 63 WWW
3) Stormers 60 WWW
4) Bulls 57 WWW
5) Sharks 56 WWL
6) Edinburgh 54 WLW
7) Munster 52 LWL
8) Glasgow 51 LLL
9) Scarlets 48 WWL

Adjusted my forecast accounting for the Scarlets loss and the weaker squad Leinster has sent to SA.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Shucks. So far so good but I'm still expecting the odd loss for both Stormers and Sharks. Even if it would be a slight upset I almost expect an upset here and there. If the Sharks can account for Leinster's reduced side I'd feel more confident BUT even then Glasgow might fancy themselves for an upset and after Leinster, Scarlets away is still a match one has to pitch up for. So far it's been the Scots that have had success in SA and Glasgow has a few South Africans who will be a boon for them in terms of being familiar with the conditions here. But I like what you have there and it is what I too expect if everything pans out as expected.

 

[Groundhog]

Ulster:

Stewart Moore, Rob Baloucoune, James Hume, Stuart McCloskey, Ethan McIlroy, Mike Lowry, John Cooney; Andrew Warwick, Rob Herring, Marty Moore, Alan O'Connor, Iain Henderson (Capt.), Matty Rea, Jordi Murphy, Nick Timoney.

Replacements: Brad Roberts, Eric O'Sullivan, Gareth Milasinovich, Sam Carter, Sean Reidy, Nathan Doak, Ian Madigan, Ben Moxham.

Munster: Mike Haley; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Shane Daly; Joey Carbery, Craig Casey; Jeremy Loughman, Diarmuid Barron, Stephen Archer; Jean Kleyn, Thomas Ahern; Jack O'Donoghue (C), John Hodnett, Alex Kendellen.

Replacements: Scott Buckley, Josh Wycherley, John Ryan, Jason Jenkins, Fineen Wycherley, Conor Murray, Ben Healy, Chris Cloete.

We are going a bit stronger than I thought we would for this so I'm feeling optimistic! Team has a good luck to it.

 

[Groundhog]

URC has announced that the final will be held in the home ground of the highest ranked team.

 

[unrated]

Someone please make a thread for this week. I will do this if no one did it before I get home from work.

 

[saulan]

Team Points Remaining fixtures
1) Leinster 65 LW
2) Stormers 61 WW
3) Ulster 59 WW
4) Bulls 57 WW
5) Munster 56 WL
6) Sharks 56 WL
7) Edinburgh 54 LW
8) Glasgow 51 LL
9) Scarlets 48 WL

Adjusted to account for the latest round of results. I've not changed any of my predictions, but feel the Sharks look more rickety than before and could lose both games. I think 7/8th is going to be determined by the Scottish derby, with the loser missing out on the Champions Cup due to a Welsh team being out the top 8. Leinster to not get anything out of next week and then get five points against Munster.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Adjusted to account for the latest round of results. I've not changed any of my predictions, but feel the Sharks look more rickety than before and could lose both games. I think 7/8th is going to be determined by the Scottish derby, with the loser missing out on the Champions Cup due to a Welsh team being out the top 8. Leinster to not get anything out of next week and then get five points against Munster.

1) Leinster 65 LW
2) Stormers 61 WW
3) Ulster 59 WW
4) Bulls 57 WW
5) Munster 56 WL
6) Sharks 56 WL
7) Edinburgh 54 LW
8) Glasgow 51 LL

If this ended up being it, it would certainly make for a lot of travel come the play offs. I'd wager all host winning across QFs, SFs and final for a Leinster ***le.

 

[saulan]

If this ended up being it, it would certainly make for a lot of travel come the play offs. I'd wager all host winning across QFs, SFs and final for a Leinster ***le.

Yea, I expect the same. The nice thing about it is that there would be no derby games of SAvSA or Ireland vs Ireland throughout (if that prediction comes true). The negative in the away games is that everyone bar Glasgow would be taking a ~14 hour travel schedule, then in the semis both teams would do the same, and again in the final.

It's not too bad given the time difference, but I do wonder what the teams are flying for the cross-continental flights to ensure they can get some decent rest.

 

[unrated]

It's becoming clear why the media and SA public were so disappointed to hear Leinster was sending a B or C squad. I've seen some people claiming it's a 6th string side. It's a lose-lose scenario. Even if the Stormers win next weekend everyone will claim it means nothing. So then it will mean nothing apart from a simple fight for points.

For What it's worth, it was expected I guess at least in the media that the Sharks should put away this Leinster team by a big score because it was weakened. Irish fans were also saying this mostly. But while a first-string Leinster side could have snatched a victory in Durban, don't for a moment think they would have run away with the score based on the Sharks performance against their 6th team.

This is what the Sharks do, they play mostly at the level of their opponents, also Durban will make any star-studded team look average with the humidity and now added rain the last few weeks. You generally have to change your style to adapt to the conditions and it always becomes a slugfest. We will have to wait a bit longer for the clash we wanted.

I understand why Leinster did this with an eye on the Champions League and I understand that this would have been planned since the schedule was released. If I was their coach I would do the same thing.

But from a Fan POV, I am hugely disappointed with what has transpired.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I think Leinster would have sent a strong side if 1st place was in serious jeopardy. So I'll blame this situation on the other 15 sides for being too poor/inconsistent to mount a sustained challenge. Every other team has had a pretty significant slump to shocking loss during the season so, as you say, of course Leinster get out the pipe and slippers.

The only thing I'd say is it seemed to me in SR that the kiwis would routinely leave a few ABs back home when touring SA, even when points were vital. But perhaps I misremembered that. Even then it'd be a stronger side than Leinster put out, but with less justification.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think Leinster would have sent a strong side if 1st place was in serious jeopardy. So I'll blame this situation on the other 15 sides for being too poor/inconsistent to mount a sustained challenge. Every other team has had a pretty significant slump to shocking loss during the season so, as you say, of course Leinster get out the pipe and slippers.

The only thing I'd say is it seemed to me in SR that the kiwis would routinely leave a few ABs back home when touring SA, even when points were vital. But perhaps I misremembered that. Even then it'd be a stronger side than Leinster put out, but with less justification.

My memory might also be failing me but what I remember is that the Kiwi's only rested contracted All Blacks who had to be rested and this only during RWC years. But I might be mis-remembering. For the most part I remember star studded Crusaders sides making life difficult for us. We tended to have a decent win rate vs the other sides though. At least at home we did.

Leinster all but has the 1st spot sewn up. Can't blame them for taking advantage of the position they've manage to put themselves in. I'm really regretting those games vs Benetton, Edinburgh and Connacht where it was ours for the taking. Might've forced Leinster to come at us at home. It'll be interesting to see if their B/C/D side can make a game of it vs us as well. I think that 2nd place and home Q/SF will be enough motivation for us to not take it too easy.

It's becoming clear why the media and SA public were so disappointed to hear Leinster was sending a B or C squad. I've seen some people claiming it's a 6th string side. It's a lose-lose scenario. Even if the Stormers win next weekend everyone will claim it means nothing. So then it will mean nothing apart from a simple fight for points.

For What it's worth, it was expected I guess at least in the media that the Sharks should put away this Leinster team by a big score because it was weakened. Irish fans were also saying this mostly. But while a first-string Leinster side could have snatched a victory in Durban, don't for a moment think they would have run away with the score based on the Sharks performance against their 6th team.

This is what the Sharks do, they play mostly at the level of their opponents, also Durban will make any star-studded team look average with the humidity and now added rain the last few weeks. You generally have to change your style to adapt to the conditions and it always becomes a slugfest. We will have to wait a bit longer for the clash we wanted.

I understand why Leinster did this with an eye on the Champions League and I understand that this would have been planned since the schedule was released. If I was their coach I would do the same thing.

But from a Fan POV, I am hugely disappointed with what has transpired.

Classic Sharks. Edinburgh played the conditions beautifully though. I think the Sharks will have to adapt in this tournament if simply because the sides we are facing now are more used to playing in the wet than SA sides are, even the Sharks.

.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Yeah, maybe it was RWC years that threw me as I only watched the last couple of seasons. They would never send a full strength side to the Jaguares (distance) or Sunwolves (not required) from my casual recollection.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

For fun I'll go:

Leinster
Ulster
Munster
Bulls
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Stormers
Scarlets

Sharks
Lions

I got Leinster right, so I'm a veritable Nostradamus!
At least all you crazy kids picking Stormers to finish 3rd or 4th got it wrong!

*sighs*

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Adjusted my forecast accounting for the Scarlets loss and the weaker squad Leinster has sent to SA.

Bang on the money two fixtures to go- well done!

I got Leinster right, so I'm a veritable Nostradamus!
At least all you crazy kids picking Stormers to finish 3rd or 4th got it wrong!

*sighs*

I had the Stormers dropping 1 game yeah. End of season consistency is not a Stormers trait. BUT we Stormers fans don't know how it is to get to the end of a long season and still have 13 of your preferred starting players available so this is all new territory.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Didn't expect this final but I've considered that an interesting side effect is the build up of rivalries. The Bulls-Stormers rivalry is built upon the old North Transvaal - Western Province rivalry in Currie Cup back when that was our premier competition.

I don't know about others but already I feel there will be something extra in it next time Stormers and Ulster meet. To a lesser extent also Edinburgh. Something in it now between Leinster and Bulls as well?

My brother in law talked about how Leinster underachieved. That got me thinking and my stance is that they didn't really. Not in a big way. They easily topped the log and it took a lot for them to fall out in the semi-final even if some of that was self-inflicted. IMO there are a number of teams that underachieved in a bigger way. I'd say Munster, Sharks, Glasgow more so. And I'd put the Welsh conference in there as well- I just don't know enough about them to sort it. Stormers the biggest overachievers IMO- I can't see us replicating a 2nd place finish and final appearance unless the stars align again.

For next year my crystal ball is telling me:

1 Leinster
2 Ulster
3 Sharks
4 Bulls
5 Munster
6 Glasgow
7 Stormers - not that I think Glasgow is a better side but I think the fact that they get two stabs at the Italian sides favors the Scottish sides.
8 Edinburgh
9 Ospreys
10 Scarlets
11 Benetton
12 Connacht - are a better side than this ranking but conversely to the Scottish sides I put them and the Lions lower by dint of them having it tough within their pools.
13 Lions
14 Dragons
15 Blues
16 Zebre

The Welsh sides are like the Aussie sides in SR for me in that they are a huge unknown factor in my considerations.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Didn't expect this final but I've considered that an interesting side effect is the build up of rivalries. The Bulls-Stormers rivalry is built upon the old North Transvaal - Western Province rivalry in Currie Cup back when that was our premier competition.

As much as I find it a bit embarrassing that we have an all SA final in the first year of strong SA sides being in the comp, the bigger the buy in the better. The Bulls cared more about this comp than Leinster did and deserve a shot to win, this should captivate SA rugby fans too.

I'm going into next season wanting to win the URC almost as much as Europe now, similar boat to English fans and certain French ones who value Europe highly.

I don't know about others but already I feel there will be something extra in it next time Stormers and Ulster meet. To a lesser extent also Edinburgh. Something in it now between Leinster and Bulls as well?

Yep, the only team I want Leinster to beat more than the Bulls next season is La Rochelle.

My brother in law talked about how Leinster underachieved. That got me thinking and my stance is that they didn't really. Not in a big way. They easily topped the log and it took a lot for them to fall out in the semi-final even if some of that was self-inflicted. IMO there are a number of teams that underachieved in a bigger way. I'd say Munster, Sharks, Glasgow more so. And I'd put the Welsh conference in there as well- I just don't know enough about them to sort it. Stormers the biggest overachievers IMO- I can't see us replicating a 2nd place finish and final appearance unless the stars align again.

I think its fair to say we underachieved, we were the best team in Europe and the URC until late May this year, and there's no point being a great league team and weak knockout one in rugby. To fail when it mattered is underachieving. Obviously I'd rather be in Leinster's position over any other trophyless team going into next year but this season can't be looked back on fondly at all.

For next year my crystal ball is telling me:

1 Leinster
2 Ulster
3 Sharks
4 Bulls
5 Munster
6 Glasgow
7 Stormers - not that I think Glasgow is a better side but I think the fact that they get two stabs at the Italian sides favors the Scottish sides.
8 Edinburgh
9 Ospreys
10 Scarlets
11 Benetton
12 Connacht - are a better side than this ranking but conversely to the Scottish sides I put them and the Lions lower by dint of them having it tough within their pools.
13 Lions
14 Dragons
15 Blues
16 Zebre

The Welsh sides are like the Aussie sides in SR for me in that they are a huge unknown factor in my considerations.

Hopefully a Welsh side or even Benetton can break into the playoffs but I think this is most likely. Glasgow and Munster should see a resurgence having got rid of stale coaching teams. I can comment on the SA sides too much as their regular season passed me by, won't let it happen next year! If Ulster can build on this season they'll be in a great position to win the comp.