cyRil
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Back in September, when Wales were still perceived as vaguely good, Jim Telfer maintained some semblance of credibility and England weren't going to win the 2015 Rugby World Cup, four erudite, articulate and highly knowledgeable pundits made their Heineken Cup predictions for the 2012/13 season for TRF.
Favourite sons of the site TRF_Feicarsinn, TRF_Cymro, SelimNiai and cyRil all stuck their necks out to make bold predictions about who would do what in this year's top European competition, despite realising universal derision and mistrust of the forum's members would, in all probability, be the outcome.
Regardless, our hardy bunch pulled no punches and as a result claimed that;
1. All Welsh regions would fail to make an impact on the competition.
2. Of the French sides, Clermont, Toulon and Toulouse would prioritise this tournament over the Top 14.
3. Exeter to be the Dark Horse of the cup.
4. English teams would go gun-ho to prove themselves amidst the contractual and competitive arguments that beset the tournament pre-kick off.
Looking back, following the conclusion of the group stages we can see that some predictions struck true and some were a way off the mark, but pool-by-pool analysis also makes for interesting reading and suggests that our pundits do sometimes know what they are talking about.
POOL 1
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: SARACENS
ACTUAL QUALIFIER: SARACENS & MUNSTER
Despite some negative mutterings to the contrary from Feic, the boys unanimously plumped for Saracens to qualify. Their squad was deemed too strong for the likes of Munster - who the panel stated were a shadow of their former selves, Racing Metro - a team that offer bravado, unpredictability and disappointment in equal measure and Edinburgh - who were given, perhaps unfairly considering last season's semi-final achievement, no hope... from everyone but a chirpy SelimNiai.
Saracens did in fact top the group, winning five of their six group games including comprehensive victories over Racing both home and away.
The Parisians themselves were a mixed bag throughout. Despite a morale-boosting comeback win over Munster in Round 1, they never really pushed on and two unconvincing wins over Edinburgh were their only other positive results, finishing with a won -3, lost -3 record.
Munster were the surprise of the group, managing to scrape through to the quarter-finals with a final round bonus-point victory at Thomond Park over Racing, for whom Antoine Batut was sent off early on.
The undisputed disappointment of the group came from Edinburgh. Reaching the last four of the competition in 2011/12, Michael Bradley's side failed to score a point until Round 3 this season and suffered 0-45, 33-0 and 40-7 drubbings to fully compound their European woes with a big fat zero.
POOL 2
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: TOULOUSE
ACTUAL QUALIFIER: LEICESTER
In a group containing three good sides and, in Treviso, a promising team very much on the up the panel could be excused for getting this one wrong. Despite Feic promoting the Ospreys' cause in making it through the group, cyRil questioned this giving his own team "no chance" and the boys agreed that the quality of squad and experience of the competition would be sufficient for Toulouse to qualify.In the end, the Tigers ground it out in a bruising final-day showdown with the French champions at Welford Road to progress on 20 points with a 4-1-1 record, leaving Guy Noves's troops to lick their wounds in the Amlin Challenge Cup. With the Ospreys currently in-transit after losing so many of their highly vaunted stars, the core of the side that won the RaboDirect Pro 12 in 2011/12 acquitted themselves admirably considering the calibre of teams they were pitted against. The highlight of their campaign undoubtedly came with the 17-6 home victory over Toulouse and although battering Leicester for significant periods of their fixture at the Liberty, a draw snatched from the jaws of defeat ultimately ended their European season.Treviso can take heart from another encouraging Heineken Cup season where they held their own in every game. They were never once totally outplayed and the close scorelines, ferocity of play and passion of the fans signal that huge improvements are being made in northern Italy; with the final round win over the Ospreys - predicted by Feic - rewarding the efforts of the franchise and somewhat making up for the disappointment of the one-point defeat to Leicester in Round 4.POOL 3
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: HARLEQUINS & BIARRITZ
ACTUAL QUALIFIER: HARLEQUINS
Biarritz's failure to qualify from a group containing - in Connacht and Zebre - two of the worst sides to ever compete in the Heineken Cup goes only to illustrate their contempt and laissez-faire attitude to Europe's top tournament. For a side that won the Bouclier de Brennus as recently as 2006, BOPB's 3-0-3 record is simply unforgivable. Home and away losses to Harlequins could be bitterly accepted when you factor in their status as English champions, but a 22-14 reverse out in Galway and only two try bonus points justifies Feic's assertion that Biarritz are a "spent force".
That plucky Irishman argued that Biarritz would fail to make it past the group phase, but it was not enough to convince the other three who all agreed the Basques would go through in one of the two runner-up spots.
BOPB's profligacy was mirrored by Harlequins' professionalism in a group that they could easily have taken lightly. Finishing as top seeds in the competition, Quins ran in a total of 28 tries in their 6 group games, a figure matched only by their eventual points tally. A 40-13 win over their French opponents in Round 1 set the tone for Conor O'Shea's men and they never looked back with three other hefty wins and a final day 9-16 slog to victory at Parc de Sports Aguilera wrapping up a satisfactory pool.Perhaps elitist-ly the panel had little time to discuss the merits and pitfalls of Connacht and Zebre, but the miniscule mark they made on the competition legitimised the boys' views. Connacht did secure an excellent and hard-fought win over Biarritz in Round 3, but the only other points they gleaned were from the latest Italian franchise. Scores of 38-17, 57-14, 53-5 and 47-8 aren't the type you would expect from a 'premier' European side.POOL 4
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: ULSTERACTUAL QUALIFIER: ULSTER
Upon learning the make-up of Pool 4, Feic joked that Scottish sides should be kicked out of European competition and, although tongue-in-cheek, Glasgow's failure to claim a win until the final fixture gives the suggestion some credence. Their last-gasp win over Northampton will live long in the memory thanks to Peter Horne's incredible solo effort, but that was their only reason to cheer as the Scotstoun side recorded 5 defeats.The pool was always likely to go the way of Ulster given the blistering way in which they had started the season - no doubt inspired and spurred on by the untimely death of club centre Nevin Spence. Despite a small blip in the 10-9 home defeat to Northampton, the Irish province claimed the group with some breathing space; their comprehensive opening day win over Castres and the bonus-point defeat of Saints at Franklins Gardens being particularly impressive displays.Disappointingly, Northampton never really got going and the way in which the panel almost totally disregarded their chances of qualification seemed to permeate into their performances as they failed to hang on to leads, pick up bonus points - winning and losing - and their challenge ultimately fizzled out.Castres are currently one of those French outfits that are undoubtedly good, but maintain a preference in league performances over European progression. After a 40-point thumping at the hands of Ulster in Round 1, Castres composed themselves to finish with a respectable 3-0-3 record; but a lack of winning bonus points meant they were never in realistic contention to progress and a 9-8 loss to Ulster at Stade Pierre-Antoine on the last day sealed their fate.
POOL 5
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: CLERMONT AUVERGNE & LEINSTERACTUAL QUALIFIER: CLERMONT AUVERGNE
Many eventualities were proposed in this group of death - Exeter to take scalps and progress, Scarlets to have a major impact, Scarlets to lose all six games, Leinster to get knocked out - but the one thing everyone agreed on was that Clermont would progress. A side flush with such talent, power and drive to succeed were never likely to struggle and finishing on 28 points with 24 tries scored in such a competitive group just goes to show what a force Clermont are. Home and away victories over Leinster further outlined their credentials and placed them as many peoples' favourites to usurp the Irish province as European champions at the Aviva Stadium, Dublin in May.Leinster's Euro season could be deemed unfortunate, thanks mainly to a host of injuries to key players. Failure to pick up try bonuses in either Clermont fixture and the home tie with Exeter ultimately cost them progression, with Munster's own BP win on the last day enough to pip their provincial rivals.Exeter provided a gritty test throughout the competition, as the panel predicted, and were agonisingly close to a famous win at the RDS in Round 1. But in the end Rob Baxter's side had to make do with two solid wins over the Scarlets, as the West Walians - fulfilling cyRil's prophetic words - failed to muster a single win; and bowed out following a 29-0 home defeat to Clermont.
POOL 6
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: TOULONACTUAL QUALIFIER: TOULON & MONTPELLIERDespite the obvious qualities of the French sides in the pool, a lot of time was spent by the pod - TRF_Cymro in particular - bemoaning the inadequacies of the Blues and the player drain away from Wales. Jamie Roberts' mooted move to France was encouraged by the panel and later confirmed in the media.Heavyweights Toulon always looked like taking the pool and with 5 wins and a 62-0 rout of the hapless Sale Sharks, Bernard Laporte's charges galloped towards the last eight.Montpellier's inclusion in the quarter-final line-up may come as a surprise to some, but with home and away wins over Cardiff and Sale and an impressive display of muscle and determination in beating Toulon 23-3 in Round 6, their right to be there cannot be questioned.Blues and Sharks between them struck a sorry couple and their only wins came against each other in their home fixtures and they limped out of the competition without hardly so much as a whimper. So, five out of eight correct picks isn't such a bad return; with Leinster unlucky not to progress and the only major flop being bizarre Biarritz.With just three wins in eighteen games, the Welsh regions did what the panel expected and underperformed to a near-embarrassing level. Despite the victory over Toulouse, Ospreys then went on to a home draw with Leicester and a defeat away in Treviso. Cardiff Blues' only 'W' came in the final round with a 26-14 over basement Aviva club Sale, following drubbings at the hands of the French and a morale-sapping loss to the Sharks in Round 1, having led 24-12 at half-time. The Scarlets failed to impose themselves at any stage and played six, lost six sums up where they are when compared to Europe's top sides at present.The assertion that the top French sides would prioritise the Heineken Cup came true to an extent. Despite Toulouse's failure, Toulon and Clermont look bound for the last 4 at least and try telling anyone European competition doesn't mean anything to Montpellier's players after the scenes at full-time following their win over Toulon.Exeter's push to be a 'Dark Horse' never really materialised, but that was in no small part down to the quality of their group. A more favourable draw - say in Pool 3 - could have seen them pushing even for a quarter-final berth; but it was not to be.Three English qualifiers - including the top seed - in the last eight is the most for a number of years and vindicates the panel's opinions. Leicester and Saracens have been given tricky opponents in Toulon and Ulster respectively, so their progress cannot be assured, but with a home tie at Twickenham over a creaking Munster who is to say that Quins won't be lifting a second piece of silverware in as many years in Ireland come season's end?
Images courtesy of www.ercrugby.com, www.skysports.com, www.bbc.co.uk, www.zimbio.co.uk & www.rugbyoffload.co.uk
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @ThomasODavies
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Back in September, when Wales were still perceived as vaguely good, Jim Telfer maintained some semblance of credibility and England weren't going to win the 2015 Rugby World Cup, four erudite, articulate and highly knowledgeable pundits made their Heineken Cup predictions for the 2012/13 season for TRF.
Favourite sons of the site TRF_Feicarsinn, TRF_Cymro, SelimNiai and cyRil all stuck their necks out to make bold predictions about who would do what in this year's top European competition, despite realising universal derision and mistrust of the forum's members would, in all probability, be the outcome.
Regardless, our hardy bunch pulled no punches and as a result claimed that;
1. All Welsh regions would fail to make an impact on the competition.
2. Of the French sides, Clermont, Toulon and Toulouse would prioritise this tournament over the Top 14.
3. Exeter to be the Dark Horse of the cup.
4. English teams would go gun-ho to prove themselves amidst the contractual and competitive arguments that beset the tournament pre-kick off.
Looking back, following the conclusion of the group stages we can see that some predictions struck true and some were a way off the mark, but pool-by-pool analysis also makes for interesting reading and suggests that our pundits do sometimes know what they are talking about.
POOL 1
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: SARACENS
ACTUAL QUALIFIER: SARACENS & MUNSTER
Despite some negative mutterings to the contrary from Feic, the boys unanimously plumped for Saracens to qualify. Their squad was deemed too strong for the likes of Munster - who the panel stated were a shadow of their former selves, Racing Metro - a team that offer bravado, unpredictability and disappointment in equal measure and Edinburgh - who were given, perhaps unfairly considering last season's semi-final achievement, no hope... from everyone but a chirpy SelimNiai.
Saracens did in fact top the group, winning five of their six group games including comprehensive victories over Racing both home and away.
The Parisians themselves were a mixed bag throughout. Despite a morale-boosting comeback win over Munster in Round 1, they never really pushed on and two unconvincing wins over Edinburgh were their only other positive results, finishing with a won -3, lost -3 record.
Munster were the surprise of the group, managing to scrape through to the quarter-finals with a final round bonus-point victory at Thomond Park over Racing, for whom Antoine Batut was sent off early on.
The undisputed disappointment of the group came from Edinburgh. Reaching the last four of the competition in 2011/12, Michael Bradley's side failed to score a point until Round 3 this season and suffered 0-45, 33-0 and 40-7 drubbings to fully compound their European woes with a big fat zero.
POOL 2
ACTUAL QUALIFIER: LEICESTER
In a group containing three good sides and, in Treviso, a promising team very much on the up the panel could be excused for getting this one wrong. Despite Feic promoting the Ospreys' cause in making it through the group, cyRil questioned this giving his own team "no chance" and the boys agreed that the quality of squad and experience of the competition would be sufficient for Toulouse to qualify.In the end, the Tigers ground it out in a bruising final-day showdown with the French champions at Welford Road to progress on 20 points with a 4-1-1 record, leaving Guy Noves's troops to lick their wounds in the Amlin Challenge Cup. With the Ospreys currently in-transit after losing so many of their highly vaunted stars, the core of the side that won the RaboDirect Pro 12 in 2011/12 acquitted themselves admirably considering the calibre of teams they were pitted against. The highlight of their campaign undoubtedly came with the 17-6 home victory over Toulouse and although battering Leicester for significant periods of their fixture at the Liberty, a draw snatched from the jaws of defeat ultimately ended their European season.Treviso can take heart from another encouraging Heineken Cup season where they held their own in every game. They were never once totally outplayed and the close scorelines, ferocity of play and passion of the fans signal that huge improvements are being made in northern Italy; with the final round win over the Ospreys - predicted by Feic - rewarding the efforts of the franchise and somewhat making up for the disappointment of the one-point defeat to Leicester in Round 4.POOL 3
ACTUAL QUALIFIER: HARLEQUINS
Biarritz's failure to qualify from a group containing - in Connacht and Zebre - two of the worst sides to ever compete in the Heineken Cup goes only to illustrate their contempt and laissez-faire attitude to Europe's top tournament. For a side that won the Bouclier de Brennus as recently as 2006, BOPB's 3-0-3 record is simply unforgivable. Home and away losses to Harlequins could be bitterly accepted when you factor in their status as English champions, but a 22-14 reverse out in Galway and only two try bonus points justifies Feic's assertion that Biarritz are a "spent force".
That plucky Irishman argued that Biarritz would fail to make it past the group phase, but it was not enough to convince the other three who all agreed the Basques would go through in one of the two runner-up spots.
BOPB's profligacy was mirrored by Harlequins' professionalism in a group that they could easily have taken lightly. Finishing as top seeds in the competition, Quins ran in a total of 28 tries in their 6 group games, a figure matched only by their eventual points tally. A 40-13 win over their French opponents in Round 1 set the tone for Conor O'Shea's men and they never looked back with three other hefty wins and a final day 9-16 slog to victory at Parc de Sports Aguilera wrapping up a satisfactory pool.Perhaps elitist-ly the panel had little time to discuss the merits and pitfalls of Connacht and Zebre, but the miniscule mark they made on the competition legitimised the boys' views. Connacht did secure an excellent and hard-fought win over Biarritz in Round 3, but the only other points they gleaned were from the latest Italian franchise. Scores of 38-17, 57-14, 53-5 and 47-8 aren't the type you would expect from a 'premier' European side.POOL 4
PREDICTED QUALIFIER: ULSTERACTUAL QUALIFIER: ULSTER
Upon learning the make-up of Pool 4, Feic joked that Scottish sides should be kicked out of European competition and, although tongue-in-cheek, Glasgow's failure to claim a win until the final fixture gives the suggestion some credence. Their last-gasp win over Northampton will live long in the memory thanks to Peter Horne's incredible solo effort, but that was their only reason to cheer as the Scotstoun side recorded 5 defeats.The pool was always likely to go the way of Ulster given the blistering way in which they had started the season - no doubt inspired and spurred on by the untimely death of club centre Nevin Spence. Despite a small blip in the 10-9 home defeat to Northampton, the Irish province claimed the group with some breathing space; their comprehensive opening day win over Castres and the bonus-point defeat of Saints at Franklins Gardens being particularly impressive displays.Disappointingly, Northampton never really got going and the way in which the panel almost totally disregarded their chances of qualification seemed to permeate into their performances as they failed to hang on to leads, pick up bonus points - winning and losing - and their challenge ultimately fizzled out.Castres are currently one of those French outfits that are undoubtedly good, but maintain a preference in league performances over European progression. After a 40-point thumping at the hands of Ulster in Round 1, Castres composed themselves to finish with a respectable 3-0-3 record; but a lack of winning bonus points meant they were never in realistic contention to progress and a 9-8 loss to Ulster at Stade Pierre-Antoine on the last day sealed their fate.
POOL 5
Many eventualities were proposed in this group of death - Exeter to take scalps and progress, Scarlets to have a major impact, Scarlets to lose all six games, Leinster to get knocked out - but the one thing everyone agreed on was that Clermont would progress. A side flush with such talent, power and drive to succeed were never likely to struggle and finishing on 28 points with 24 tries scored in such a competitive group just goes to show what a force Clermont are. Home and away victories over Leinster further outlined their credentials and placed them as many peoples' favourites to usurp the Irish province as European champions at the Aviva Stadium, Dublin in May.Leinster's Euro season could be deemed unfortunate, thanks mainly to a host of injuries to key players. Failure to pick up try bonuses in either Clermont fixture and the home tie with Exeter ultimately cost them progression, with Munster's own BP win on the last day enough to pip their provincial rivals.Exeter provided a gritty test throughout the competition, as the panel predicted, and were agonisingly close to a famous win at the RDS in Round 1. But in the end Rob Baxter's side had to make do with two solid wins over the Scarlets, as the West Walians - fulfilling cyRil's prophetic words - failed to muster a single win; and bowed out following a 29-0 home defeat to Clermont.
POOL 6
Images courtesy of www.ercrugby.com, www.skysports.com, www.bbc.co.uk, www.zimbio.co.uk & www.rugbyoffload.co.uk
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @ThomasODavies
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