Top Try Scorer for this years Super 15???

[TRF_stormer2010]

You comment got me thinking. So the last 10 years of top try scorers are:

2013: Halai (outside back)
2012: Bjorn Basson & Andre Taylor (both outside backs)
2011: Bjorn Basson, Sean Maitland, Sarel Pretorius (2 outside backs and a halfback)
2010: Joe Rokocoko & Drew Mitchell (both outside backs)
2009: Ma'a Nonu (Centre)
2008: Lelia Masaga (Outside back)
2007: JP Peterson (Outside back)
2006: Lome Fa'atau (Outside back)
2005: Rico Gear (Outside back)
2004: Mark Gerard & Stirling Mortlock (Outside back & Outside back/Centre)

So out of 15 guys over the last 10 season's top try-scorers only 2 of them did not play outside back (Sarel Pretorius & Ma'a Nonu) so as you say we shouldn't discount players from other positions. However on the balance of probabilities one would have to expect it will be an outside back again. Note also that no forward has ever won the accolade.

Note, I can't recall well Stirling Mortlock's season in 2004 but I do remember him playing a number of games on the wing where he scored a number of tries. So arguably he would not have been top try scorer had he played the whole season at 13.

Ja, and in 2011, Sarel played about as many games on the wing as he did as scrum half.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Well, then I will choose the giant for my fantasy team. Bjorn Basson hasn't had a good season with Boks last year, he has been criticized by supporters. Perhaps his performance is better when he plays for Bulls.

Bjorn hasn't been picked as much for the Boks, because Bryan Habana has been in better form. Bjorn was a back-up and he didn't feature as much as Habana did. He only played 5 tests in 2013. Of which the last one was in Mendoza against Argentina. In 2013 he played 5 tests, and scored 3 tries. Which is not bad at all!! So I don't really where you get this info that he has been criticised by his fans? Do you have a link?

He always performs better for the Bulls. he plays more games for them, and they use the kick and chase game! he is one of the best chasers in the game and has quite often won the ball in the air and then scored a try.

You comment got me thinking. So the last 10 years of top try scorers are:

2013: Halai (outside back)
2012: Bjorn Basson & Andre Taylor (both outside backs)
2011: Bjorn Basson, Sean Maitland, Sarel Pretorius (2 outside backs and a halfback)
2010: Joe Rokocoko & Drew Mitchell (both outside backs)
2009: Ma'a Nonu (Centre)
2008: Lelia Masaga (Outside back)
2007: JP Peterson (Outside back)
2006: Lome Fa'atau (Outside back)
2005: Rico Gear (Outside back)
2004: Mark Gerard & Stirling Mortlock (Outside back & Outside back/Centre)

So out of 15 guys over the last 10 season's top try-scorers only 2 of them did not play outside back (Sarel Pretorius & Ma'a Nonu) so as you say we shouldn't discount players from other positions. However on the balance of probabilities one would have to expect it will be an outside back again. Note also that no forward has ever won the accolade.

Note, I can't recall well Stirling Mortlock's season in 2004 but I do remember him playing a number of games on the wing where he scored a number of tries. So arguably he would not have been top try scorer had he played the whole season at 13.

thanx for the stat Nick! I'm actually surprized. I was hoping at least Sona Taumalolo would have made the list... Or Pierre Spies in that year where the Bulls beat the Chiefs by more than 50 points in the final...

 

[Gena_ZA]

"So I don't really where you get this info that he has been criticised by his fans? Do you have a link?"

He is a good player in open games = most S15 matches
He is very poor on defense and breaks his line constantly, that is the main reason why he was dropped and if he doesn't work on it he will never be a Bok again.
He is one of the fastest, great under the high ball and best finishers in world rugby though

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Well, I have certainly been a big Basson detractor over the years. Hate when he gets the nod for the green jersey. I've criticized Spies, JdV, Habana, Hougard, Steyn, Pienaar, Kirchner, Coetzee, JdP. F Steyn.. I'm sure there are others. At least M Steyn, JdV and Habana have overcome their rough patches since last year (or the ned of the year before).

At the moment my knife is reserved for Spies and Pienaar; I have hope for JdP and Hougaard but feel they might not regain top form sadly but there is still plenty of rugby to be played.

No doubt though that Basson is a regular scorer in SR.

 

[TRF_heineken]

"So I don't really where you get this info that he has been criticised by his fans? Do you have a link?"

He is a good player in open games = most S15 matches
He is very poor on defense and breaks his line constantly, that is the main reason why he was dropped and if he doesn't work on it he will never be a Bok again.
He is one of the fastest, great under the high ball and best finishers in world rugby though

You are not one of his fans, so doesn't really count. You don't even support the team he plays for locally.

But you are correct in the defence aspects, especially when it comes to breaking the line. but then again he wasn't pick for the Boks based on that...

 

[Gena_ZA]

I don't need to support his team to have an objective opinion on him, c'mon please (he is in my current fantasy league)
I rate JJ Engelbrecht and do not rate Juan de Jongh as an example, you should know better I am not clouded with provincialism
Really..................

He was released from the Boks based on that, and that is what counts

 

[TRF_heineken]

I don't need to support his team to have an objective opinion on him, c'mon please (he is in my current fantasy league)
I rate JJ Engelbrecht and do not rate Juan de Jongh as an example, you should know better I am not clouded with provincialism
Really..................

He was released from the Boks based on that, and that is what counts

Haha, fair enough. I was actually quoting you based on your response to Conrad Smith. He just seems to blab about something without substance and then when you correct him, he just ignores the post completely and goes on his merry way...

 

[ABs2011]

Bjorn hasn't been picked as much for the Boks, because Bryan Habana has been in better form. Bjorn was a back-up and he didn't feature as much as Habana did. He only played 5 tests in 2013. Of which the last one was in Mendoza against Argentina. In 2013 he played 5 tests, and scored 3 tries. Which is not bad at all!! So I don't really where you get this info that he has been criticised by his fans? Do you have a link?

He always performs better for the Bulls. he plays more games for them, and they use the kick and chase game! he is one of the best chasers in the game and has quite often won the ball in the air and then scored a try.





thanx for the stat Nick! I'm actually surprized. I was hoping at least Sona Taumalolo would have made the list... Or Pierre Spies in that year where the Bulls beat the Chiefs by more than 50 points in the final...

Yeah, so was I to a certain extent. I can't recall seeing Spies up there on the lists (no doubt he was though). Taumalolo on the other hand scored nine (I think) the year before last (only 1 try off being the top)!

I've ended up putting my money where my mouth is with McNicholl ($100@$30) Bit of an outside chance but I reckon if he gets the nod at starter on the wing for the Crusaders (which he has for week one) and stays injury free he will be up there so I like the $30 odds on offer. I've also taken Folau and Halai with smaller bets as back ups! As always it's a bit random as to who gets it so not that much rugby brains needed, just a bit of luck!

 

[ABs2011]

We won't really know until Nadolo plays Super Rugby, but based on the the evidence we have so far I would think it highly unlikely Nadolo is as good as Guildford (who at his best is a very good Super Rugby player). People seem a little obsessed with the size and pace of Nadolo, forgetting it takes more than pace and size to make a quality rugby player. Nadolo was a very promising youngster starring for the Australian U20 side, but really hasn't done anything since. He spent several years playing club rugby in Australia without managing to ever play Super Rugby (he was in the Waratahs squad for one season though), following this he had short (and largely unsuccessful stints) at French club side Bourgoin and the Exeter Chiefs. He has been scoring tries for fun in the Japanese League, but their is a real question as to whether he is good enough for Super Rugby. Obviously Blackadder and co. think they can get the best out of him, and their is no doubt he could be a a weapon if he plays to his potential (and he is used correctly), but personally I can't see him displacing Guildford or McNicholl in the starting lineup anytime soon (he could be a valuable impact player off the bench though).

Anyways, back to the initial question. In the NZ conference the standout candidates for me are Julian Savea, Zac Guildford and Johnny McNicholl. Ben Smith will score a few for the Highlanders, but is unlikely to be at the top overall. Hard to pick anyone at the Chiefs as it is unclear who their starting lineup will be. Halai and Piutau will probably score a few for the Blues, but I reckon George Moala is in a for a big year, so may top the Blues try scoring charts. I will probably going to go for McNicholl (just ahead of Savea).

In terms of the Aussie conference I'm going for Israel Folau, as he seems to know his way to the tryline, while in the South African conference I'm going for Rhule (just ahead of Basson, who always seems to score a few).

EDIT: Interesting to see Guildford didn't even make the first Crusaders 22 for the season, with wider training group member Nafi Tuitavake preferred in the 11 jersey, and the more versatile Rob Thompson preferred on the bench. I wonder whether Guildford has been a naughty boy again.....

Agreed, Moala (if he keeps his act together and the Blues go OK) could be a good outside shot, but at $25 on the NZ tote I reckon he is under the odds. The other guy I reckon could be a show is Peter Betham (as a real outsider that no-one has mentioned).

 

[ABs2011]

Ja, and in 2011, Sarel played about as many games on the wing as he did as scrum half.

Oh is that right?? Interesting, I didn't see that much of him so didn't realize that. Well that only leaves 1 player who did not play outside back for the season over the last 10 years in Nonu. Safe to say it will likely be an outside back again this year then....(famous last words).

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Given that TNW has been named on the wing this week I'm hoping that's a sign of things to come and he'll spend most of the season there. I'd like to throw his name into the hat.

 

[ABs2011]

Given that TNW has been named on the wing this week I'm hoping that's a sign of things to come and he'll spend most of the season there. I'd like to throw his name into the hat.

Yeah for sure, he is a fantastic attacking player. My problem with the Chiefs in this respect, is they are so deep (particularly in the backs) that I;m not sure how many of their guys will start the whole season if any. They seem to utilize the rotation policy (very effectively) so I'm just not that sure they will have the top try scorer in their team...

Champs two years running and the best they've had has been Bundi Aki (at 8th equal last year 4 tries off the lead) and Taumalolo the year before (3rd equal, one off the lead, but a bit of an anomaly really you'd have to say...)

As you point out though TNM has the skills so might surprise.

The other guy I'd like to see get some time for the Chiefs is James Lowe who I think is a fantastic winger and will be sure to get rotated in for a few games at least this year.

 

[Icemn]

savea n cory jane!

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Folau scored a hat trick in tonight's match against the Force... Sure wishing I chucked ten bucks on him to be top try scorer now.

 

[ABs2011]

Folau scored a hat trick in tonight's match against the Force... Sure wishing I chucked ten bucks on him to be top try scorer now.

Looks like I backed the wrong horse. I did put a small wager on Foalu but my big money wen on McNicholl!! Ahh should have put a few more bob on Israel huh!! Other than that I'm feeling pretty good about my early bets which include Chiefs to win NZ, Sharks to win SA, and NSW to win OZ!

 

[ABs2011]

Was having a quick look at this so thought I'd survey opinions.

From memory, last year Franky Hali took it out with 10 tries and I recall Folau, Speight and Gear being there or there abouts as well.

After a quick look at this year I would have thought you would have to have Hali and Folau up there again and I think I'd also throw Johnny McNicholl in to the mix as well as he is a fiune player and a very good finisher (not sure if he will get consistent game time though...)

So my picks:
Halai
Folau
McNicholl

What do others think?? Who are the gun wingers from the SA teams? I here Rhule is quality and I suspect the Sharks will score their fair share of tries so maybe Ndungane or Mvovo??

Wondering if this thread can be closed already?? Only 2 games in and Folau has 6 tries!!! Halai got top try scorer last year with 10 from memory. Folau looks like he could double that total the way he and NSW are playing!!

 

[Draggs]

Wondering if this thread can be closed already?? Only 2 games in and Folau has 6 tries!!! Halai got top try scorer last year with 10 from memory. Folau looks like he could double that total the way he and NSW are playing!!

Israel 'only' has five... The Super Rugby record is 15, jointly held by Joe Roff and Rico Gear. Could Folau join them this season?

 

[ABs2011]

Israel 'only' has five... The Super Rugby record is 15, jointly held by Joe Roff and Rico Gear. Could Folau join them this season?

Oh yes, my bad!

Yup I think he could beat the all time record. Main reason I believe this to be the case is, so long as he is playing for a dominant NSW team, he has a distinct advantage over other players gone past in that he will have the chance to play each of the OZ teams twice! I think NSW will win the OZ conference (backed them pre season @ $2.80) and I think they will be competitive vs. the other top teams from NZ and SA. The rest of the OZ sides are a joke (Reds aren't too bad, ACT I think are going to struggle post the White regime). As a result I'd say NSW will put 3 tries + on each of the OZ sides each game and Folau will often be on the score sheet. Time will tell but for now he is on track!