Top Try Scorer for this years Super 15???

[ABs2011]

Was having a quick look at this so thought I'd survey opinions.

From memory, last year Franky Hali took it out with 10 tries and I recall Folau, Speight and Gear being there or there abouts as well.

After a quick look at this year I would have thought you would have to have Hali and Folau up there again and I think I'd also throw Johnny McNicholl in to the mix as well as he is a fiune player and a very good finisher (not sure if he will get consistent game time though...)

So my picks:
Halai
Folau
McNicholl

What do others think?? Who are the gun wingers from the SA teams? I here Rhule is quality and I suspect the Sharks will score their fair share of tries so maybe Ndungane or Mvovo??

 

[Jaguares]

For me: Zac Guildford, Israel Folau, Willie Le Roux or Henry Speight

 

[ABs2011]

For me: Zac Guilford, Israel Folau, Willie Le Roux or Henry Speight

My issue with the Crusaders is that it is not clear to me who their starting wings will be...?? I take it you think Guildford will start the season on one wing and McNicholl and Nadolo will fight it out for the other spot? IMHO it will be the other way around (McNicholl on one wing and Guildford and Nadolo will fight for the other spot - I'm not a Guildford fan though...)

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Julian Savea for me!

 

[Jaguares]

My issue with the Crusaders is that it is not clear to me who their starting wings will be...?? I take it you think Guildford will start the season on one wing and McNicholl and Nadolo will fight it out for the other spot? IMHO it will be the other way around (McNicholl on one wing and Guildford and Nadolo will fight for the other spot - I'm not a Guildford fan though...)

Yeah, maybe you're right, just Zac is a player I admire. I don't have much information about Nadolo, I know he's a giant of 125 kgs, the "new Lomu ', I want to see him in action. In this sport the size helps, but isn't everything. Do you think he's better than Zac?

Cheers

 

[nickdnz]

Yeah, maybe you're right, just Zac is a player I admire. I don't have much information about Nadolo, I know he's a giant of 125 kgs, the "new Lomu ', I want to see him in action. In this sport the size helps, but isn't everything. Do you think he's better than Zac?

Cheers

Yes, but that's not saying much.

My personal picks would be Julian Savea, Henry Speight, Israel Folau or Bjorn Basson.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'll back Folau fo top try scorer overall. I think Rhule has the best chance from SA but TBH I would be very surprised if he were pushing for top overall.

 

[Bull]

Julian Savea for me!

Ditto

 

[TRF_heineken]

What makes you guys think that it will be a winger or a back? a lot more teams are using the rolling maul to score tries and a more forward orientated approach. Let me throw a spanner in the works with my choices:

NZ:
Cory Jane

Aus:
Kurtley Beale

SA:
Siya Kolisi
Paul Jordaan
Coenie Oosthuizen

 

[Gena_ZA]

Brok Harris!

 

[TRF_heineken]

Brok Harris!

Bwhahahahahahahah!! Brok Harris!! Bwahhahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Kolisi? Maybe. Harris? Well I hope not seeing as that would mean that he'd actually take to the field for us.

 

[Gena_ZA]

watch this space, he will soon be our National inside center, I mean the guy stands there and they have to lead him to the scrums.

My "other picks"

SA:
Kolisi
Jordaan
Kolbe (when he returns)

Aus:
Folau
Spreight
Morahan


NZ:
Jane
Nadolo
Savea

 

[Jaguares]

Yes, but that's not saying much.

My personal picks would be Julian Savea, Henry Speight, Israel Folau or Bjorn Basson.

Well, then I will choose the giant for my fantasy team. Bjorn Basson hasn't had a good season with Boks last year, he has been criticized by supporters. Perhaps his performance is better when he plays for Bulls.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Well, then I will choose the giant for my fantasy team. Bjorn Basson hasn't had a good season with Boks last year, he has been criticized by supporters. Perhaps his performance is better when he plays for Bulls.

It's probably not a good idea to buy SA outside backs; the Lions and Cheetahs do play with width but aren't as likely to score overly many tries being the traditionally weaker SA teams (Cheetahs stepped up last year but we don't know yet if it was a 1 year only deal) while the 'big 3' SA teams' wings rarely get the ball in space, maybe the Sharks a little less than the others but still not nearly as many times as most Aus/NZ backs are likely too.

 

[IRISH RUGBY MAN]

SA:
Jordaan
Rhule
Kolisi

Aus:
Folau
Speight
Turner

NZ:
Savea
Smith
Piutau

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

SA:
Jordaan
Rhule
Kolisi

Aus:
Folau
Speight
Turner

NZ:
Savea
Smith
Piutau

I think it's telling that you have SA with only 1 outside back (and I tend to agree with your picks overall).

 

[ABs2011]

Well, then I will choose the giant for my fantasy team. Bjorn Basson hasn't had a good season with Boks last year, he has been criticized by supporters. Perhaps his performance is better when he plays for Bulls.

The Giant (Nadolo) will likely not be playing for the first 3, 4 possibly even 5 weeks. Probably best not to buy him!

 

[ABs2011]

What makes you guys think that it will be a winger or a back?

You comment got me thinking. So the last 10 years of top try scorers are:

2013: Halai (outside back)
2012: Bjorn Basson & Andre Taylor (both outside backs)
2011: Bjorn Basson, Sean Maitland, Sarel Pretorius (2 outside backs and a halfback)
2010: Joe Rokocoko & Drew Mitchell (both outside backs)
2009: Ma'a Nonu (Centre)
2008: Lelia Masaga (Outside back)
2007: JP Peterson (Outside back)
2006: Lome Fa'atau (Outside back)
2005: Rico Gear (Outside back)
2004: Mark Gerard & Stirling Mortlock (Outside back & Outside back/Centre)

So out of 15 guys over the last 10 season's top try-scorers only 2 of them did not play outside back (Sarel Pretorius & Ma'a Nonu) so as you say we shouldn't discount players from other positions. However on the balance of probabilities one would have to expect it will be an outside back again. Note also that no forward has ever won the accolade.

Note, I can't recall well Stirling Mortlock's season in 2004 but I do remember him playing a number of games on the wing where he scored a number of tries. So arguably he would not have been top try scorer had he played the whole season at 13.

 

[Darwin]

Yeah, maybe you're right, just Zac is a player I admire. I don't have much information about Nadolo, I know he's a giant of 125 kgs, the "new Lomu ', I want to see him in action. In this sport the size helps, but isn't everything. Do you think he's better than Zac?

Cheers

We won't really know until Nadolo plays Super Rugby, but based on the the evidence we have so far I would think it highly unlikely Nadolo is as good as Guildford (who at his best is a very good Super Rugby player). People seem a little obsessed with the size and pace of Nadolo, forgetting it takes more than pace and size to make a quality rugby player. Nadolo was a very promising youngster starring for the Australian U20 side, but really hasn't done anything since. He spent several years playing club rugby in Australia without managing to ever play Super Rugby (he was in the Waratahs squad for one season though), following this he had short (and largely unsuccessful stints) at French club side Bourgoin and the Exeter Chiefs. He has been scoring tries for fun in the Japanese League, but their is a real question as to whether he is good enough for Super Rugby. Obviously Blackadder and co. think they can get the best out of him, and their is no doubt he could be a a weapon if he plays to his potential (and he is used correctly), but personally I can't see him displacing Guildford or McNicholl in the starting lineup anytime soon (he could be a valuable impact player off the bench though).

Anyways, back to the initial question. In the NZ conference the standout candidates for me are Julian Savea, Zac Guildford and Johnny McNicholl. Ben Smith will score a few for the Highlanders, but is unlikely to be at the top overall. Hard to pick anyone at the Chiefs as it is unclear who their starting lineup will be. Halai and Piutau will probably score a few for the Blues, but I reckon George Moala is in a for a big year, so may top the Blues try scoring charts. I will probably going to go for McNicholl (just ahead of Savea).

In terms of the Aussie conference I'm going for Israel Folau, as he seems to know his way to the tryline, while in the South African conference I'm going for Rhule (just ahead of Basson, who always seems to score a few).

EDIT: Interesting to see Guildford didn't even make the first Crusaders 22 for the season, with wider training group member Nafi Tuitavake preferred in the 11 jersey, and the more versatile Rob Thompson preferred on the bench. I wonder whether Guildford has been a naughty boy again.....