Odd to see a poll on who will win without Biarritz and Stade Français as options.
I was thinking the same when I opened this thread. It may just be a poll, but you should never count out two of the powerhouse clubs in France. With Stade not competing for the H-Cup this season, they should be able to concentrate on picking up another Brennus. I honestly don't think they have the quality to finish in the top four, but I bet they won't finish outside of the top six this time out.
Biarritz has been up in the air for a few seasons now. It seemed at some point that the powerhouse team they assembled was starting to their lose steam, but last season some people believed that they were back thanks to their showing into the H-Cup final. As a BO supporter myself I haven't been impressed with the team for some time now. They need to concentrate on the domestic league this season. I don't think they have a difficult group in the H-Cup, but unless things fall in their favor I don't want to see so many important players being rested for big matches in France. The competition in the Top 14 is rising rapidly and if they don't play things right they may lose out on the H-Cup next season. They have the quality to win the Brennus, so get it right!
Toulouse always look good, but they seem to be more interested in Europe these years than racking up another Brennus. With the talent in the league right now, I think that they could drop out of a top four spot during a tight race down the stretch. Perpignan seem to be struggling a bit early on, but they should return to form soon enough. Clermont finally broke their duck and won the Brennus. At some point I thought that they would be damned to losing in every final they compete in before investors just say, "****, this team just can't get it done!" They should be a top pick to repeat. I'm loving their new Under Armour kits.
Castres were a big surprise last season, even for me. They lost their captain to Racing Métro before the season started and still managed to sit on top of the league for some time. At first I thought this would be a fluke and they would drop rapidly down the table, but they never did. Do I think they will finish strong this season? I think they could go one better. Toulon look good on paper, but I think this season will see them struggle a bit. I don't think there will be a relegation scare by any means, but I haven't been impressed.
I won't cover every team here, but I do want to touch on Bayonne and Montpellier before I get into the relegation candidates. Last season was really an odd one for Bayonne. They finished the season second to last and yet still scored more points than they allowed. I think this hit home hard with the owners and staff because the club did some serious cleaning over the Summer. I think they let go at least 15 players and brought in nearly as many. Some of these were youth players we won't see for some time, but from what I've heard the future looks good for this club.
As for Montpellier, I've had them as relegation candidates every season for as long as I can remember. I do not have them there this season. They played pretty well so far in France this season, but I don't think this should be all too much of a surprise. Last season they shown signs of significant improvement despite their showing in Europe and some disastrous matches in France. They haven't been as up and down so drastically as in previous seasons. I think a mid-table finish is possible.
La Rochelle has finally made it to the Top 14! Every season I've watched this team make the Pro D2 playoff and fall out despite their successes during the regular season. Last season it looked as though they may not even make it to the playoff, but they finished strong and got it done. They will have to put it all on the line, but they took so long to get here that I don't think they'll be going back down so easily.
My candidates for relegation are the current bottom two Agen and Bourgoin-Jallieu. That seems a bit simple, but Agen just released their only superstar and I think the fantastic young centre Benjamin Petre will not be prepared to lift his club just yet. Keep an eye on him though. As for Bourgoin-Jallieu, well, they have been floating around the drain for a few seasons now. I expected them to go down last season along with Albi and yet they managed to stay afloat over clubs like Bayonne, which is ridiculous, as well as Montauban who were relegated to Fédérale 1 for financial problems. With all of the incredible talent they've lost over the years it is incredible that the tiny club from Isère has managed to stay up. What's more concerning is that the club is still relying on old bones to keep the pillars up.
Here are my predictions:
Top 14
01. Clermont (champions)
02. Biarritz
03. Castres
04. Toulouse
05. Perpignan
06. Stade Français
07. Racing Métro
08.
Toulon
09.
Bayonne
10.
Montpellier
11. Brive
12.
La Rochelle
13. Agen
14. Bourgoin-Jallieu