So I know there are still four weeks of Super Rugby to go and it's still very hard to predict how things are going to pan out.
That said if you can't make barely rational, statistically implausible predictions about rugby on this forum, you can't make them anywhere.
Before I get started its a dead certainty at this stage the South African teams will have three play-offs spots, with a minimum of two teams with home quarter finals. This system is generally agreed upon to be unfair and in need of reform and has been made worse by the poor performance of the Jaguares (who pre-season everyone thought would challenge for the top spot of their conference denying SA the extra quarter). I understand this will be part of the discussion but since it has been discussed at length in other topics perhaps this is an opportunity to talk about the situation we are faced with and not the situation that we wish we had.
I'll leave most of the discussion of Aus and NZ to those fans who probably have better insight than I do, but on current form I'd say it's safe to say the Crusaders are the favorites for the New Zealand conference and the number 1 position overall.
After that, it becomes very complicated with a lot of derbies coming up which could potential mix up positions drastically, the absolute worst case for New Zealand is that due to the high amount of derbies, one of the teams gets forced below the 2nd best Australian team and only three Kiwi teams go through. Since the Warratahs play over the next four matches; The Chiefs, Sunwolves, Hurricanes and Blues it is still somewhat in Kiwi hands and considering the relative strength of the Kiwi teams and the inconsistency of the Tahs this year I would guess it would be unlikely they will crack a play-off sport. Conversely the Brumbies seem to have a relatively easy run-in and should secure the top Australian spot in my opinion.
Therefore I think we'll see:
Crusaders
Chiefs
Highlanders
Hurricanes
Go through in that order,with the Brumbies bagging the top Aussie spot and the Tahs losing out. The Blues have a mathematical chance but it would take some run. The Rebels also have a mathematial chance but it would require an even more miraculus run than the Blues would need.
The South African conference will be all about who loses out. Between the Bulls, the Sharks, the Stormers and the Lions one team will drop out and the other three will go through.
For me the Lions are the most likely to top both SA conferences, but it is interesting to note that they have a relatively hard run (Bulls, Sharks, Kings, Jags(A)) and it is still mathematically possible that they miss out on the play-offs altogether. Not my opinion but possible.
The Sharks are on rollicking form but have played one extra game than the Stormers and the Bulls while being 3 points ahead, they have 1 tough fixtures (the lions) and two relatively easy fixtures (Cheetahs and Kings), unfortunately due to their slow start their play-off chances may be determined by the Lions fixture.
The Bulls have one hard fixture (Lions), one potentially tough fixture (Jags away) and 2 easyish fixtures (Cheetahs and Sunwolves), if they win all of their games I think it's safe to say that they will secure their play-off spot, but lose one and it becomes dicey and reliant on other teams and if they lose 2 it might be all over.
Stormers are essentially in exactly the same position as the Bulls, they may have the easiest fixtures on paper (Cheetahs, Rebels, Force and Kings) but that does include a tour of Australasia, not to mention we are in dismal form with zero wins in the last 3 games. If we can man up and win our next four it's hard to imagine us not making the play-offs but if we trip up it might be late.
Overall I'd say we'll get going through:
1. The Lions
2. Stormers
3. Bulls
With an overall log looking something like:
1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Brumbies
4. Stormers
5. Chiefs
6. Highlanders
7. Bulls
8. Hurricanes
Anyway that's my best guess for the final overall log based on fixtures and the system we're operating under (not a power ranking). Thoughts?
That said if you can't make barely rational, statistically implausible predictions about rugby on this forum, you can't make them anywhere.
Before I get started its a dead certainty at this stage the South African teams will have three play-offs spots, with a minimum of two teams with home quarter finals. This system is generally agreed upon to be unfair and in need of reform and has been made worse by the poor performance of the Jaguares (who pre-season everyone thought would challenge for the top spot of their conference denying SA the extra quarter). I understand this will be part of the discussion but since it has been discussed at length in other topics perhaps this is an opportunity to talk about the situation we are faced with and not the situation that we wish we had.
I'll leave most of the discussion of Aus and NZ to those fans who probably have better insight than I do, but on current form I'd say it's safe to say the Crusaders are the favorites for the New Zealand conference and the number 1 position overall.
After that, it becomes very complicated with a lot of derbies coming up which could potential mix up positions drastically, the absolute worst case for New Zealand is that due to the high amount of derbies, one of the teams gets forced below the 2nd best Australian team and only three Kiwi teams go through. Since the Warratahs play over the next four matches; The Chiefs, Sunwolves, Hurricanes and Blues it is still somewhat in Kiwi hands and considering the relative strength of the Kiwi teams and the inconsistency of the Tahs this year I would guess it would be unlikely they will crack a play-off sport. Conversely the Brumbies seem to have a relatively easy run-in and should secure the top Australian spot in my opinion.
Therefore I think we'll see:
Crusaders
Chiefs
Highlanders
Hurricanes
Go through in that order,with the Brumbies bagging the top Aussie spot and the Tahs losing out. The Blues have a mathematical chance but it would take some run. The Rebels also have a mathematial chance but it would require an even more miraculus run than the Blues would need.
The South African conference will be all about who loses out. Between the Bulls, the Sharks, the Stormers and the Lions one team will drop out and the other three will go through.
For me the Lions are the most likely to top both SA conferences, but it is interesting to note that they have a relatively hard run (Bulls, Sharks, Kings, Jags(A)) and it is still mathematically possible that they miss out on the play-offs altogether. Not my opinion but possible.
The Sharks are on rollicking form but have played one extra game than the Stormers and the Bulls while being 3 points ahead, they have 1 tough fixtures (the lions) and two relatively easy fixtures (Cheetahs and Kings), unfortunately due to their slow start their play-off chances may be determined by the Lions fixture.
The Bulls have one hard fixture (Lions), one potentially tough fixture (Jags away) and 2 easyish fixtures (Cheetahs and Sunwolves), if they win all of their games I think it's safe to say that they will secure their play-off spot, but lose one and it becomes dicey and reliant on other teams and if they lose 2 it might be all over.
Stormers are essentially in exactly the same position as the Bulls, they may have the easiest fixtures on paper (Cheetahs, Rebels, Force and Kings) but that does include a tour of Australasia, not to mention we are in dismal form with zero wins in the last 3 games. If we can man up and win our next four it's hard to imagine us not making the play-offs but if we trip up it might be late.
Overall I'd say we'll get going through:
1. The Lions
2. Stormers
3. Bulls
With an overall log looking something like:
1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Brumbies
4. Stormers
5. Chiefs
6. Highlanders
7. Bulls
8. Hurricanes
Anyway that's my best guess for the final overall log based on fixtures and the system we're operating under (not a power ranking). Thoughts?
