In the last 4 years, France has played England 4 times, with only one win for the French. If you take a longer time frame, say since RWC 2003, England has won half of the 12 games played. If you consider the entire professional era, each country has 11 wins. In World Cups, England has won three times ('91, 2003 and 2007) and France one (1995). In a WC quarterfinal, I'd give England a 60%-70% chance of winning. If France does progress to the SF, they would play Wales or Ireland surely. That goes for a 50% chance of winning (I'd actually say France would be favourite, but it may be my bias). So, coming second in the pool would give about 1/6 of a chance of reaching the final.
If France had won the pool, playing Argentina would be about a 60%-70% chance of a win (I know, we've made the mistake of underestimating Argentina before, but this time I just don't see them playing that well) and in the case of progressing to the SF, beating Wallabies or Springboks would be a 10%-20% chance of winning I'd reckon, which is about a 1/9-1/10 of a chance of reaching the final. If the goal was to reach the semis, winning the pool wouild have bee better, but that's not the case.