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Super 15: THE GRAND FINAL! Reds v. Crusaders @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (09-07-2011)
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<blockquote data-quote="Darwin" data-source="post: 417583" data-attributes="member: 24910"><p>I actually think the odds a reasonably fair, and the Crusaders deserve to be favourites. For one thing the Crusaders have experience in big matches like this, which the Reds lack. This is something that cannot be underestimated. </p><p></p><p>You rightly note that the Reds beat the Crusaders last time (in Queensland) but that was a last minute win, and the teams are a bit different this time. The Reds are slightly weaker, while the Crusaders are substantially stronger. Both teams have three changes in their starting lineup from their last match. The Reds are missing their first choice fullback and tight-head prop for this match (Lucas, and Slipper) which are both big losses, while Davies has replaced Morahan on the wing (which may be a slight improvement, though there is not much between the players). The Crusaders have had big upgrades in three positions with top try-scorer Sean Maitland replacing (the grey-haired) Brent Ward on the right wing, Ellis replacing Heinz at halfback, and All Black Sam Whitelock replacing Chris Jack at lock.</p><p></p><p>The Crusaders should have a huge advantage up front, particularly in the scrums. It is certainly going to be difficult for the Reds to attack from the scrum if it is going rapidly backwards. The lineouts will be interesting; the Reds have had a reasonable lineout most of the year, but struggled a bit against the (under-manned) Blues lineout last week, while the Crusaders lineout was quite effective against the powerful Stormers lineout last week. The Reds are certainly going to have to secure their own lineout ball if they want to be competitive, as otherwise they are not going to have any attacking platforms from set-phase.</p><p></p><p>The loose-forward battle will be fascinating. George Whitelock has been solid all season at 6, while Higginbotham has been far more dynamic (if lacking Whitelock's reliability). Beau Robinson had a strong game last week after returning from injury, and his work at the breakdown will be key for the Reds. McCaw hasn't really looked himself this season; he's been making his tackles and running well with the ball but he hasn't had the same impact at the breakdown that we traditionally expect from him. He is certainly going to be tested by Robinson (and Gill when he comes on). Read is probably the key member of the Crusaders trio at this stage. He has been phenomenal over the latter half of the season, and he's going to have to have another strong game if the Crusaders are to compete in the loose.</p><p></p><p>The battle of he halves should be really interesting as well. Ellis has had a strong season, but even then he's not in the same class as Genia. Ellis should be getting far better ball from his forward pack though, which may even up the battle. Cooper has been great all season, and will be the major threat for the Crusaders. It will be interesting to see what Carter does in terms of his tactical kicking this week. Last week against the Stormers all Carter did was kick the ball long straight down the middle of the park; this was very effective against the Stormers as all Jantjes would do in response was put up a mid-field bomb. If Carter kicks straight down the throat of Cooper (who will be stationed at fullback on defence) the Crusaders are going to be in all sorts of trouble. I'd expect Carter will kick a lot more for touch, or either he or Ellis will put up shorter (high) kicks for the likes of Guildford to chase. Carter has had a pretty quiet season by his standards; he hasn't made many mistakes, but he certainly hasn't provided the running threat he can pose. If he does start to run I feel the Crusaders backline will be even more potent, as the Reds will have another player the need to keep an eye on.</p><p></p><p>The Crusaders certainly have an edge in the mid-field, though both Tapuai and Faingaa are strong defensive players. Fruean had his strongest game in a long time last weekend, so they are going to have to mark him as closely as they will SBW. There are some great match-ups out wide, with Maitland v Ioane on one wing, and Guildford v Davies on the other. Maitland will struggle to contain Ioane (as most players will), but Maitland himself could trouble Ioane with his pace. Davies looked impressive versus the Blues, but I expect the Crusaders may target him this week with a few high balls. The Crusaders are certainly going to have to keep an eye on Davies, as even Guildford won't catch him is he gets into space!</p><p></p><p>One of the really interesting things in the match will be how the Reds combat the Crusaders off-loading game. The Reds defensive technique is to go low and bring the player to ground so the can pilfer the ball; this tactic is very effective, but it doesn't prevent the Crusaders off-loading the ball in the tackle. I'm expecting the Reds to get quite a few tunrovers at the breakdown (especially in the last 20 mins when Liam Gill comes on), but I feel the continuity provided by the Crusaders off-loading game will cause the Reds a lot of trouble. The Crusaders certainly won't make as many unforced errors as the Blues did last week; therefore I don't think the Reds will get as many attacking opportunities this week, and due the Crusaders forward dominance the Reds won't get as many opportunities from set play. I wouldn't rule out the Reds winning, but overall I'm predicting the Crusaders to take it by 10-15 points.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Darwin, post: 417583, member: 24910"] I actually think the odds a reasonably fair, and the Crusaders deserve to be favourites. For one thing the Crusaders have experience in big matches like this, which the Reds lack. This is something that cannot be underestimated. You rightly note that the Reds beat the Crusaders last time (in Queensland) but that was a last minute win, and the teams are a bit different this time. The Reds are slightly weaker, while the Crusaders are substantially stronger. Both teams have three changes in their starting lineup from their last match. The Reds are missing their first choice fullback and tight-head prop for this match (Lucas, and Slipper) which are both big losses, while Davies has replaced Morahan on the wing (which may be a slight improvement, though there is not much between the players). The Crusaders have had big upgrades in three positions with top try-scorer Sean Maitland replacing (the grey-haired) Brent Ward on the right wing, Ellis replacing Heinz at halfback, and All Black Sam Whitelock replacing Chris Jack at lock. The Crusaders should have a huge advantage up front, particularly in the scrums. It is certainly going to be difficult for the Reds to attack from the scrum if it is going rapidly backwards. The lineouts will be interesting; the Reds have had a reasonable lineout most of the year, but struggled a bit against the (under-manned) Blues lineout last week, while the Crusaders lineout was quite effective against the powerful Stormers lineout last week. The Reds are certainly going to have to secure their own lineout ball if they want to be competitive, as otherwise they are not going to have any attacking platforms from set-phase. The loose-forward battle will be fascinating. George Whitelock has been solid all season at 6, while Higginbotham has been far more dynamic (if lacking Whitelock's reliability). Beau Robinson had a strong game last week after returning from injury, and his work at the breakdown will be key for the Reds. McCaw hasn't really looked himself this season; he's been making his tackles and running well with the ball but he hasn't had the same impact at the breakdown that we traditionally expect from him. He is certainly going to be tested by Robinson (and Gill when he comes on). Read is probably the key member of the Crusaders trio at this stage. He has been phenomenal over the latter half of the season, and he's going to have to have another strong game if the Crusaders are to compete in the loose. The battle of he halves should be really interesting as well. Ellis has had a strong season, but even then he's not in the same class as Genia. Ellis should be getting far better ball from his forward pack though, which may even up the battle. Cooper has been great all season, and will be the major threat for the Crusaders. It will be interesting to see what Carter does in terms of his tactical kicking this week. Last week against the Stormers all Carter did was kick the ball long straight down the middle of the park; this was very effective against the Stormers as all Jantjes would do in response was put up a mid-field bomb. If Carter kicks straight down the throat of Cooper (who will be stationed at fullback on defence) the Crusaders are going to be in all sorts of trouble. I'd expect Carter will kick a lot more for touch, or either he or Ellis will put up shorter (high) kicks for the likes of Guildford to chase. Carter has had a pretty quiet season by his standards; he hasn't made many mistakes, but he certainly hasn't provided the running threat he can pose. If he does start to run I feel the Crusaders backline will be even more potent, as the Reds will have another player the need to keep an eye on. The Crusaders certainly have an edge in the mid-field, though both Tapuai and Faingaa are strong defensive players. Fruean had his strongest game in a long time last weekend, so they are going to have to mark him as closely as they will SBW. There are some great match-ups out wide, with Maitland v Ioane on one wing, and Guildford v Davies on the other. Maitland will struggle to contain Ioane (as most players will), but Maitland himself could trouble Ioane with his pace. Davies looked impressive versus the Blues, but I expect the Crusaders may target him this week with a few high balls. The Crusaders are certainly going to have to keep an eye on Davies, as even Guildford won't catch him is he gets into space! One of the really interesting things in the match will be how the Reds combat the Crusaders off-loading game. The Reds defensive technique is to go low and bring the player to ground so the can pilfer the ball; this tactic is very effective, but it doesn't prevent the Crusaders off-loading the ball in the tackle. I'm expecting the Reds to get quite a few tunrovers at the breakdown (especially in the last 20 mins when Liam Gill comes on), but I feel the continuity provided by the Crusaders off-loading game will cause the Reds a lot of trouble. The Crusaders certainly won't make as many unforced errors as the Blues did last week; therefore I don't think the Reds will get as many attacking opportunities this week, and due the Crusaders forward dominance the Reds won't get as many opportunities from set play. I wouldn't rule out the Reds winning, but overall I'm predicting the Crusaders to take it by 10-15 points. [/QUOTE]
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Super 15: THE GRAND FINAL! Reds v. Crusaders @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (09-07-2011)
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