Simple Question: Who Will Win The World Cup?

[ShonH]

NZ is the hands down favorite with the Wallabies as an outside threat. SA is an unknown right now. They do not look like they are ready to make a run but stranger things have happened.

 

[nzlizard]

NZ is the hands down favorite with the Wallabies as an outside threat. SA is an unknown right now. They do not look like they are ready to make a run but stranger things have happened.

I personally don't feel like we are the favorites, SA, Aus, End, Fr and Ire are all just as capable of winning this year.

NZ hasn't won a WC away from home yet.

 

[ShonH]

I personally don't feel like we are the favorites, SA, Aus, End, Fr and Ire are all just as capable of winning this year.

NZ hasn't won a WC away from home yet.

Time for that to change.

 

[Mcfadden]

I find it funny people talking about teams records and how they go here or there away from home or against specific opposition.

The reality is that matters almost naught when it comes to the world cup. Form and history go out the window. It comes down to three games in a row, quarter, semi and final. Win three games in a row and you're world champions.

And dodge some realities like rogue teams that will perform well above their place and cause upsets, and some referees will have howlers and make bad decisions that sway results. one team may only be good enough to beat another once every 15 games but if you're going to win 1 game may as well make that 1 game be a world cup knockout match.

Knockout Tournaments always suit the underdogs. underdogs go into games with unpredictable game plans and often questionable tactics that are right on or cross the line of being legal and referees make a spare of the moment decision to "let the players sort it out" or blow it up and turn the game into a stop/start penalty fest. Favorites can't afford that luxury and there is no re-match next week to counter such tactics or get a different referee with a different perspective, only 80minutes all or nothing.

And it doesn't help that referees seem to rule differently in world cups than they would a normal test match. Often what would normally be a penalty becomes a yellow card and what would have normally been a yellow card becomes a potential red card.

If the best team in the world wins, it will be the All Blacks.
Yes I hope the AB's win. McCaw & carter deserve it, McCaw being the best player ever to play the game and Carter the best 10 to ever play the game. Nonu & Smith maybe the best midfield combination in the history of the game.

Do I expect them too? no I dont.

In the very same way I never expect to win the toss of a coin.

I hear ya mate. But the international teams are so close these days, it's very hard to make a prediction. So when somebody asks the question, who will win the World Cup, you can only answer in a conventional way. And it's true that certain teams step up a notch on their own home grounds, but struggle away from it. Records, recent form, how a team has performed away from home most recently are really the only tools we have to make such a call. There will be surprises, I already agreed with that. But I don't have a crystal ball, so we can only write down what we expect to happen. It also will depend on injuries, how a team might react to a loss in pool play (will it break their confidence or make them stronger?) etc.

 

[austingtir]

I think we'll also have to wait and see how the tournament is actually reffed in the big matches. That will favour certain teams alot. And im sorry but if Barnes features in anything past pool matches I pity the teams involved.

SA will be very very hard for any team to get past. Results this year dont really do that team justice for the firepower they actually have but have chosen or been unable to play so far this year.

 

[MojoPin]

For me the first choice obviously has to be NZ, can't see them not making the final. Who meets them there and who wins the final is the impossibly difficult bit to predict!

Getting my obvious bias out of the way....Wales. I think they've got a good shot at getting out of the pool and a lot of it rides on the fitness levels and durability of the first XV. If we get battered physically in our pool games then we will struggle, but if the likes of Biggar, Webb, Halfpenny, Roberts and Warburton can stay fit and ready then I honestly think we have a chance of getting there. I may develop a serious heart condition on the way there, but still...

England I really struggle to predict. Went to the Twickenham warm-up match and was really impressed by some of the up-and-comers, but obviously this weekend's match was a bit of a surprise by contrast. Massive potential and plenty of strength in depth - the problem as I see it, is that there seems to be considerable debate on individual positions, which if messed with too much can affect the combinations. That's where things can go wrong, even if you have some scrummagers for example you need them to gel together no matter how good they are separately. I think they can do it and must be a favourite to top pool A, but it's not a sure thing.

Australia should do well but so much depends on selection from Cheika. If a couple of the wrong individuals get selected for a key match they could slip up and that might be enough to send them home.

South Africa are probably the biggest team I have the biggest doubts about. You can never underestimate them of course but they just don't seem to be firing on all cylinders just yet. If they get it together though then who knows, they could go all the way.

Ireland are a complete dark horse. If Sexton stays fit they could win the whole damn thing, but if he gets nailed then I'm not sure that Madigan or Jackson will have what it takes to turn them into world beaters. Whatever happens I don't expect them to put a foot wrong - if they miss out it'll be because of an agonizing, down to the last point type of game.

 

[Mary7]

Hopefully All Blacks, they certainly deserve to win, playing lovely rugby.

 

[Grizwald]

IMO the All Blacks are still a step up above the rest. Plenty of teams out there on their day who can beat them, Ire, Aus, SA, Fra, Eng, Wales maybe but very much against history/the AB 'aura'.

For me what separates the AB's from the above is their ability to an off day but find a way to win more often than not. The others above not so much.

 

[bw245]

For entertainment sake, I hope NZ don't win it. We're so used to them being on top, it would be nice to see someone else win it. Hoping for Australia if I'm not counting my own team.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'd be stupid not to give me country some sort of hope. I would love to see the Wallabies claim a 3rd Webb Ellis but anything can happen. Aus, NZ, SA, Eng, Ire and Fra all could win it if things fall into place for them, a bit of a stretch for the others.

Pretty much this for me as well. I see any of those 6 taking it with luck. One might as well use the world rankings to give some sort of rank to each but of those 6 I feel SA and France have the most variance in their potential. Okay, France's squad has already been announced and they are going to go at it without arguably their best 2 sets of halfback pairings but they still have the class to topple any sides ranked above them. SA is also a big question mark at this stage. The pressure is off, we have a very young backline and a we have played with 50% of our starting pack for the last 2 years but everyone is in line to come back. How effective everyone will be off the back of injury is the one question mark. How the young back line play under pressure (assuming the in form youngsters do all make it and start) is the other. It could all come together or fall apart in spectacular fashion. Also, refs? We fell foul of Lawrence in 2011 and already had a taste of Poite (again!) this year.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I've been thinking. What would happen in the knockouts if South Africa doesn't finish top of their pool?

 

[AzaMatt]

i think ireland will take it, if any time is their time its now. as much as id like to say wales, i dont think we'll make it all the way, although id love to be proved wrong

 

[AzaMatt]

i think ireland will take it, if any time is their time its now. as much as id like to say wales, i dont think we'll make it all the way, although id love to be proved wrong

 

[martinspoonboy1]

i think ireland will take it, if any time is their time its now. as much as id like to say wales, i dont think we'll make it all the way, although id love to be proved wrong

Wales have a chance if all starting 15 players stay fit fot the whole tournament. When you turn the switch you're capablwe of beating any side.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I've been thinking. What would happen in the knockouts if South Africa doesn't finish top of their pool?

Would end in the other side of the draw to the ABs. They would play winner of Pool A, then whoever won that would face likely face winner of pool D - Ireland/France. So, actually it would not be the end of the world if SA finished 2nd. Can't see it happening personally, once the Boks get everyone fit for pool stages.

 

[AzaMatt]

I've been thinking. What would happen in the knockouts if South Africa doesn't finish top of their pool?

that would be ideal for whoever comes runner up in pool A, wouldnt make as much of a tough time getting to skip south africa. Although i cant see anyone but them topping B

 

[TRF_heineken]

that would be ideal for whoever comes runner up in pool A, wouldnt make as much of a tough time getting to skip south africa. Although i cant see anyone but them topping B

Well it could happen though. If South Africa wins 3 of their 4 matches, and let's say Samoa does the same, and then SA and Samoa draw their match. It comes down to Bonus Points and Points Differential...

Or, SA could let one slip on purpose....

 

[AzaMatt]

Well it could happen though. If South Africa wins 3 of their 4 matches, and let's say Samoa does the same, and then SA and Samoa draw their match. It comes down to Bonus Points and Points Differential...

Or, SA could let one slip on purpose....

if they come runner up then they will have the same problem really as either Aus, England or Wales could top Pool A. they could face any of them whether they come first or second in their group

EDIT: or even Fiji could be within a shout of getting though pool A, wouldnt rule them out, they could produce a big upset

 

[McTallshort]

Not England

 

[AzaMatt]

Not England

and why do you think that is?