Samoa winning??

[nadoss]

Samoa's got Wales, Fiji, South Africa, and Namibia in their pool, possibly the most up-for-grabs pool in the whole world cup. Samoa went out and beat an under-strength Aussie side, but could they do the unthinkable and win their pool?? 3 Convincing wins could win it for them, and of course, if they can get all four (definitely possible) then they'd go into the knockout stage as pool champions.

What do you guys think are the chances that this could happen? Because last time i checked the odds were 40-1 and I took those odds happily. Where would you guys place the odds?

 

[The big Kangaroo]

its would not be a world cup anything can happen

 

[DallyM]

after what happened to the aussies, SA will not go in with a B side to face Samoa. SA will probably win that match although it'll be tough. then again anything can happen at the world cup and the whole world (except for Wales and South Africa) will be cheering for Samoa in that match so anything's possible

 

[nickdnz]

I'd rate Samoa's chance to getting through to be less than Wales and on par with Fiji. Their chance of winning the thing is non-existant. Don't mean to kill the buzz, but they are not going to win a QF, a Semi-Final and the Final.

 

[DJRonStar]

I'd rate them an even chance with Wales of getting through to the quarter finals. This is the pool of death so South Africa, Wales, Samoa and Fiji can make it through to the semi finals. I'm picking South Africa to qualify through this pool as top seeds and I guess it's anyone's call who places second.

Personally, I think Samoa has a more favourable draw than the Welsh. Wales will be up against South Africa first and will no doubt be putting on there top team. Then they will be coming up against Samoa and again will be having to field there strongest team.

I see a home advantage to Samoa with many Samoans living in NZ. I also like the fact that a lot of there players are currently playing in the ITM cup or have played there rugby in NZ so know the conditions well and have played in the stadiums many times.

If there chances of winning the cup are non existent then Wales, Ireland and Scotland are about the same. The only buzz that will be killed is that if NZ don't win the world cup!!

 

[DJRonStar]

I'd rate them an even chance with Wales of getting through to the quarter finals. This is the pool of death so South Africa, Wales, Samoa and Fiji can make it through to the semi finals.

That was either South Africa, Wales, Samoa or Fiji can make it to the QFs.

 

[nadoss]

I'd rate Samoa's chance to getting through to be less than Wales and on par with Fiji. Their chance of winning the thing is non-existant. Don't mean to kill the buzz, but they are not going to win a QF, a Semi-Final and the Final.

Of course I'm not expecting them to win it all! All they need to do is beat Wales and/or South Africa and then there's a chance they can win their pool. And I think they can beat South Africa on a good day.

The bet was only on the "Winner of Pool D"

That could be Samoa, if, for example, they beat South Africa, lose to Wales, South Africa beats Wales, they all beat Fiji and Namibia. then they're all 3-1 and it comes down to PD.

If that happens, and Samoa comes out on top of pool D, I win.

It just seemed to me that 40-1 odds were pretty damn generous

 

[dullonien]

They could win the pool, however I highly doubt it. Samoa will be looking to beat their close rivals Fiji and hope to cause an upset against Wales. I think that is a possibility, but I personally can't see them also beating SA to top the pool. SA are a strong side who very rarely comes unstuck against lesser teams. Fiji came close to a shock QF win against them in '07, but I always felt SA were in control. I'm also not sure that Samoa are capable of putting in 3 almost back to back big games together against higher ranked teams and winning all three.

To win the pool, Samoa would probably have to hope that either Wales or Fiji beat SA. If Wales defeat SA first up, I think Wales would go on to win the group easily, because their confidence would sky-rocket and momentum would build (see '05 and '08 grand slams to see what a big win can do to Wales' confidence). I don't think Fiji can compete with SA's big forwards.

A realistic goal for Samoa is to finish as runners up in the pool. I don't think they will, because I honestly think that Wales are a better team, but Samoa are perfectly capable of putting in a big performance to beat us, and we're perfectly capable of putting in a dire performance to loose the game. Not too sure if I'm looking forward to this WC. Pool D should provide some great games, but I think my nerves are gonna be shot by the end!

 

[DJRonStar]

That's what makes this pool so interesting and I don't think any of the other pool's are the same where four out of the five teams all have good chances of making it through to the quarter final stages. Forget 05 and 08 grand slams, Wales have lost to both Samoa and Fiji during world cups (1991, 1995 & 2007).

Dullonien - Do you think Gatland will select his A team for both South Africa and Samoa or will he rest a few players against South Africa and play his best side against Samoa? I am so looking forward to following this pool...

 

[dullonien]

Gatland will select his best team against SA and Samoa imo. He can then select a weakened side against Namibia and see where we sit going into the Fiji game (but I;d expect another full strength team).

There could well be a few changes between the two games without it really weakening the side. For example, Paul James could come in to replace Gethin and do a good job, Warberton and Williams could be rotated, along with Lydiate and Ryan Jones at 6 and Faletau and Delve (hopefully) at 8. I don't think there's any real standout scrum half at the moment, despite Phillips looking set to travel as first choice, but Knoyle could easily come in and do a better job. Stephen Jones and Hook could be rotated at 10, and any two of the 3 centres could be chosen. Changes could be made on the wing aswell with North coming in for Halfpenny or vice versa.

It's difficult to know what Wales' best 15 is at the moment, and that's probably not a good thing. It's come about from a loss of form by one or two players (most notably Phillips and Byrne), and the emergence, or re-emergence of some players, such as the emergence of Faletau, Lloyd Williams, Scott Williams, Lloyd Burns, Knoyle, North, Stoddart and to a lesser extent Warburton and Lydiate; and the re-emergence of the likes of Henson, Delve, Hook as a possible 10. There's been alot of change in the Welsh team recently, possibly too much in the run-up to a WC, we'll see...............