RWC - The A Games with Shaggy (Tonga vs Japan)

[Getofmeland]

The A games with Shaggy – Tonga V Japan, Wednesday 21th September, Okara Park, Whangarei

Pool A returns to Whangarei in the far north of New Zealand for this "home" game for Tonga. Tonga can expect, and need the home crowd support, as the first half of their rugby world cup campaign hasn't gone the way that they'd hoped, losing both of the first two matches. Japan also lost its first two matches against the pool A heavy weights, France and New Zealand.

Those two sides have the two quarter final qualifying spots more or less sown up, leaving Japan and Tonga (along with Canada) are effectively fighting it out for third place in the pool, that allows automatic qualification for the next rugby world cup in England in 2015.

Japan's chances are slightly better than Tonga's of achieving third place, as their remaining game is against Canada, where as Tonga's is against France, but either team must win this match first to have any chance at all.

Tonga have made a few changes from the side that lost its last match to Canada, most notably with captain Finau Maka being left out of the side and replaced by blindside-flanker Sione Vaiomo'unga, and goal kicking ace Kurt Morath returning to the number 10 position, with Vungakoto Lilo starting at full back, and Taniela Moa returning to half back. Aleki Lutui takes over the captaincy.

We can expect that Tonga will again play a physical style of a game, and try to out muscle the Japanese. I think that while Tonga have talented, big, abrasive backs, Tonga should try to dominate the Japanese up front in the forwards, and their ability to restricting Japan's openside, Michael Leitch, in the breakdowns, may go a long way to determining whether they can win this match or not.

The Japanese, as expected, have also made a number of changes from the second string side they used against the All Blacks, with Takashi Tikutani moving from number 8 to the blindside-flanker roll, to allow Fumiaki Tanaka to start.

The Japanese team is probably close to its strongest combination, with the inclusion of the big outside centre, Alisi Tupailai in the run on XV for the first time, along with the return of Arlidge at 10, and Nicolas at 12, Edo on the right wing, and Webb at full back.

The increase in size of some of the Japanese players named, make it apparent they are more than prepared to take Tonga on in the physical stuff if required, and they do in fact confirm this tactic in this BBC article, where you can also get a full list of the match day teams (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/rugb...n/14812433.stm )

While "hitting the Tongans back" in the physical exchanges, rather than absorbing it, as this article suggests, may be a good strategy to some degree, I personally feel their best chance is to combine physicality with the speed that they have shown in their first two games.Who will win this match? I really don't know – the Japanese are Pacific Nations champions, but the Tongans have European based players that didn't feature in that tournament. If both sides stay true to their word, and both try to out muscle each other, I predict a narrow win to the Tongans. Regardless of who wins, it should be a great game; with both sides giving their all in this must win game.

Blog by Shaggy