RWC QF - Ireland Vs Wales

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RWC 2011 game preview – Wales v Ireland

Wales have won their last 2 matches by an aggregate points total of 147 to 7 and yet they still go into this game as the bookmakers' underdogs. Ireland's victory over Australia in their second Pool C match meant that they topped the Pool, while Wales defeat to South Africa on their first Pool D game saw them finish in second place in their respective Pool, despite Ireland being slight favourites to win this game both Wales and Ireland are priced at 12/1 to win the tournament outright. One of things which makes this such an interesting game to the impartial observer is the opposing styles that both teams employ. Wales have been playing attacking, attractive rugby, securing 3 bonus points in the Pool stages and scoring 23 tries so far, the 3rd​ highest number behind hosts New Zealand and Tri Nations Champions Australia. Wales are currently the 2nd​ highest scorers at the tournament behind the All Blacks with 180 points from their 4 Pool matches. Ireland on the other hand have taken a much more pragmatic and conservative approach thus far, scoring 15 tries and securing one bonus point in their 4 victories. Ireland's 135 points was the lowest total of any of the Pool winners. Ireland fans will point to Wales' opponents in their last 2 Pool matches as the main reason they have score tries with ease, but even when the statistics are broken down they still point to Wales's strength being in the back line, 74% of Welsh tries have been scored by their backs compared to just 67% of Ireland's tries. Somewhat extraneously both teams have conceded just 34 points, with Wales allowing their opponents to score 4 tries against them, including 1 careless interception which they gifted Namibia while Ireland have conceded a miserly 3 tries in 4 matches. The asymmetry in playing styles is not only evident in each teams attacking statistics, it's exposed to an even greater degree by the number of tackles each team has made and missed in the Pool matches, Wales have completed an enormous amount of defensive work in their 320 minutes of rugby in the last month, they have made 419 tackles and missed 53. In stark comparison the Irish have made 250 and missed 26 meaning that both teams have frightening similar success rates of 89% for Wales and 90% for Ireland.

If one thing has been conspicuous so far at this World Cup it is that there is a fine line between winning and losing in International Rugby and discipline can often be the difference maker betwixt victory and defeat. Over the course of 320 minutes if rugby at the World Cup so far Wales have conceded 43 penalties, or roughly one every 7 minutes, Ireland however have displayed better discipline and their penalty count of 28 in 4 matches is one every 11 minutes, giving away 12 penalties in this game could cost Wales a place in the Semi Final. Conversely converting penalties into points has been somewhat of a speciality of this Welsh team and their goal kicking success rate of 80% vastly overshadows Ireland's sub-par 68% success rate. Another key area prevalent in Northern Hemisphere rugby and often depreciated by the Southern Hemisphere teams is set piece play, an area where Wales had been perceived to have some issues with the loss of their Captain and Lions Hooker Matthew Rees, but in his absence Wales have won 87% of scrums on their own feed and 86% of their own lineout throws. Ireland have superior success rates in both areas, but only marginally they have won 90% of their own feeds at scrum time and 92% of their line outs.
The similarities between these teams are not just statistical, they also share a coach, Warren Gatland coached Ireland between 1998 and November 2001, during which time he managed 17 wins, most memorably a 27 – 25 victory over France at the Stade de France in Paris when current Ireland skipper Brian O'Driscoll scored a hat trick of tries. Gatland's tenure ended in a very acrimonious way as he was replaced by his assistant at the time, now USA head Coach Eddie O'Sullivan. Whilst in charge of Ireland Gatland had a win percentage of 48.61% and although he has lead Wales in 12 more matches than he did Ireland his win percentage as Welsh boss is 51.04%. Honours are even when Gatland's Wales have taken on the Irish though, with each side winning one home game each and away game each in their last 4 meetings, the aggregate points difference in these 4 games is just +7 to Ireland though, so this game should be a close affair.

The greatest difference between both sides comes at the Fly Half position, where Ireland have opted for 34 year old, San Diego born Ronan O'Gara to steer their pack around the pitch, Wales contrarily have selected 24 year old Rhys Priestland. O'Gara has played 117 test matches in his 11 year career and scored 1070 points whilst recording 70 wins in a green shirt, his opposite number come Saturday, Priestland has played just 8 test matches, scoring 35 points and winning 5. The roles that both players play in this game will be key to how well each side execute their game plan, if Priestland can combine with his half back partner Lions scrum half Mike Phillips to provide giant centre Jamie Roberts with quick ball with which to attack the Irish defensive line then Wales' pack will have a considerable edge as they look to play on the front, releasing their other powerful ball carriers like Toby Faletua and 23 year old captain Sam Warburton into open space. O'Gara's role will almost be diametrically opposed to Priestland's he will look to move the ball down the field through the air and put the Welsh pack under pressure by kicking for the corners and using the in form Irish pack to build pressure on a Welsh team who have already made a huge number of tackles and are known to concede penalties easily.

As always this game will be decided by small margins and with the Irish having a slight advantage in their scrum and line out success rates, a combined 9% they should control the game and allow Ronan O'Gara to affect the Irish game plan over the Welsh ideal of open attacking rugby. Pressure will have a huge part to play on the final result of this game though as both teams know they stand on the verge of making history as Wales have not reached the semi finals of a Rugby World Cup since the inaugural competition on 1987 and Ireland have never made it past the Quarter Final stages. Ireland flanker this week was quoted as saying that this "a golden era of Irish Rugby" and they should "push on from winning the 2009 Six Nations Grand Slam", words which I'm sure will appear in Warren Gatland's pre- match team talk. The only thing that could stand between these 2 teams and what promises to be an absolute thriller is South African referee Craig Joubert, not to single out him in particular as a problem, but the level of officiating as a whole at this Rugby World Cup has been, at best ordinary with one area being either completely ignored or just refereed incorrectly being the area which will surely decide this game, the scrum.