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RWC 2011 game preview – Ireland v Australia
In 2009 Ireland won their first Grand Slam since 1948 and most observers noted that with a World Cup on the horizon Ireland were surely finding form at the right time, however since that triumphant campaign Ireland have won a lowly 52% of the Test matches they have played. Australia have a similarly lacklustre win percentage of just 55% in the last 3 years, however they are on an upward curve and have 9 of their last 13 where as Ireland have lost 7 of their last 13 Test's. After their first Pool B matches Australia top the group by virtue of the 4 try bonus point they collected during their victory over Italy.
Ireland missed out on the full set of set of 5 points in their first game and as a result of their desperation to score a 4th try Gordon D'Arcy threw an interception to USA centre Paul Emerick which allowed him to run unchallenged to the Irish try line. It's difficult to draw many conclusions by comparing each team's statistics from their first games as Australia's opposition was ranked much higher than Ireland's, Italy are just outside the IRB's top 10 at 11 and the USA are long way from the top 10 at 18 in the rankings but probably the most telling statistic is the margin of victory for each team. Australia beat a strong Italy team, who beat France in the 6 Nations by an impressive 26 points while Ireland laboured to a 12 point victory against a team who had 5 players who don't currently have a club side to play for.
Australia have been forced into 1 change with winger Digby Ioane breaking a finger wonder kid James O'Connor regains the place he lost on the wing after a breach of team discipline relating to his failure to attend the naming of the Wallabies World Cup squad. Ireland have suffered a further injury blow to add to the loss of David Wallace before the squad even left for New Zealand, hooker Jerry Flannery tore a calf in training on Tuesday and is set to return home to be replaced by Damien Varley. The other injury news for Ireland is positive with the return of influential flanker Sean O'Brien alongside Leinster loose head prop Cian Healey and his provincial teammate fullback Rob Kearney, all 3 players will be making their Rugby World Cup debut's in this match. Both teams have concerns over back row players with Ireland coach Declan Kidney letting slip that flanker Stephen Ferris is carrying a "chronic injury" which prevents him from training every day. Ferris' opposite number for this game and Australia's key player their open side flanker, Zimbabwean David Pocock has a back strain and is now considered "doubtful" to take his place on the pitch.
Irish second row Paul O'Connell was quoted this week, saying "on form they're a long way ahead of us at the moment" and according to bookmakers Australia are 5-1 favourites to win, so he's not alone in that opinion. Ireland have not beaten an Australian team since 2006 and they have not beaten Australia outside Ireland since 1979 so current form and historical fact would both appear to favour Australia. The one area where the Wallabies have been known to struggle in recent times is in the forwards, an area where Ireland are traditionally strong, however of Ireland's 8 2009 British Lions just 3 remain in this World Cup squad as result of injuries and retirements. O'Connell called on his fellow forwards to bring the kind of ferocity that make the Irish a very competitive side at home to this fixture and if they can do that then they may be able to out muscle their opposite numbers. If Ireland's pack can put Australia's under pressure and cause them to give penalties away Ireland will need a vast improvement on last week's error strewn kicking display where they managed just 3 successful kicks from 8 attempts. Kicking out of hand will also be an issue for Ireland as Australia possess some of the best counter attackers in world rugby with a back three of James O'Connor, Kurtley Beale and Adam Ashley- Cooper that will be supported by Quade Cooper when they field Irish clearing kicks any wayward kicks will be punished. I'd like to say that Ireland can win this game and provide the 2011 Rugby World Cup with it's first upset but any team with the likes of Tatafu Polota- Nau, Scott Higginbotham and the newly fit Drew Mitchell on the bench has to be one of the strongest teams at this competition, he challenge for Ireland will be to keep the score line respectable.
Blog by @Buck_Mitchell
