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RWC 2023 Predictions

I guess it has to do with what you actually expect them to do. Their authorities do show up to the WC final and proceed according to protocol. Should we give them credit for that?

Saying that WR deserve "no credit" in developing tier 2 nations means that the European/Pacific Nations Cup, Americas Rugby Championship, Rugby Africa Cup are all bad things.

Wanna make a couple of points.
1) Let me use this as an example: well, it'd pay everyone in the room a round if i could hear you say that out loud in front of the RU presidents of Chile, Uruguay or Spain. They'd laugh their arses off. At best, WR is doing their job and if you look at the results, there aint much they can brag about. You talk about development, Let's have a look at that. 8 and only 8 countries have reached semis or more in a WC.
People talk about Japan. They had one good generation and they build it by poaching players and simply putting more money than the rest. That's it.
You could argue 'what the **** did you expect?'. Well, the comparison to footie comes to mind. There are quite a few world champoins, but there are quite a lot of teams that have reached semis or more: poland, sweden, bulgaria, belgium, morocco, turkey, chile, portugal, hungary, croatia... two games away from becoming world champions. All of them.
Number 1 in the rankings plays number 15 and number 15 atually has a shot. Now try that in rugby. THAT's development.
Having refs from every single continent and from ****-poor countries? THAT's development. 3 spanish speaking countries in the world cup. How many spanish speaking refs? ZERO. How many refs from spanish speaking nations? ZERO. You mentioned America's rugby Championship, right? How many refs are there from the America's? ZERO. That is NOT development.
It's an old boys' club. I understand tradition is important, but this is just getting ridiculous. They just want 8-10 teams to play each other and call it a world cup, so they just invite others as easy sparring partners. We can sugar coat it the way you want, but that's what it is.

Is italy a success case? I really dont think so.
Is Japan? One off, but let's use this WC as a proxy. Happy to stand corrected.
Is Argentina? Allowing us to play a competition is something we should be giving WR credit for? Jesus christ.

2) And the rules... dont even get me started. I'm at a pub. Several regulars in a table with a few friends, some of these new to the game. Something happens (doesnt matter what, give me some rope), those who are new ask the rest 'what was that call about?'. The rest of us look at each other and have absolutely no idea, whatsoever, what the call was about. None. Doesnt happen every week, but trust me, it does happen quite often. We have no interest in becoming refs or part of the expert panel, but most of us have +20 years playing, another decade or two watching, read the laws countless times and reffed our share of jr games back in the day. It is very, very, very difficult for us to rationalize some calls. That DESTROYS the incentives for new comers. People are turned off by what they cannot understand.

3) WR's branding, image, whatever you wanna call it. This is just one of the latest ones but the list is endless. I'll make a quick timeline of the events

1-Owen farrel's incident
2-Nigel Owens comes out in WR's channel to address the last week's issues, controversies, or whatever you wanna call em.
3-He says nothing about Owen Farrell's incident.
4- Understandably, half of soc media points out to him how silly and click baitey his video was and that he did not address the issue
5- He basically says, politely, everyone is a moron for not getting that he wouldn't comment on an ongoing case
6- THE NEXT DAY, case still ongoing, he gives his opinion and extensive analysis on wales online.

What the **** were they thinking? It doesn't take a neurosurgeon or a nasa engineer to understand why that might provoke most of your viewers.

Or look at how the red cards are reviewed, assessed and appealed after the game. They are making a mockery of what should be a pretty straightforward procedure. Either they dont give a flying turd or they have no idea, whatsoever, what they're doing.


I give World Rugby credit for:
i) getting 7s into the olympics to popularise the sport
This i can agree with. The sevens circuit is imo phenomenal and doesn't get the credit it deserves. I dont think it has been marketed properly enough. It's exciting, fun to watch, atmosphere is amazing. i'd recommend anyone who has the chance to attend a day to do so without hesitation.
 
I genuinely can't tell if you are being serious or not. I can't think of another (not small) team sport that talks so much about development while doing everything it can to resemble an old boys' club.
When you think about it, it actually takes quite the effort and planning to achieve such a level of mischievousness. It's actually quite impressive.

Talk to some people involved in rugby in tiers 2/3: Roumania, Georgia, Chile, Uruguay, Spain. Ask them about WR, and listen to what they have to say. Or, just for kicks, look at things like dunno, the referees present at the current RWC. Fifa, as corrupt an org as it gets, wouldn't even dare to do something like that.

Yeah sorry I agree with this. It actually seems to have been the opposite, you would think World Rugby have done their level best to ensure the tier 2 nations stay in tier 2. I remember reading when Ben Ryan took charge of the Fiji 7s side, IRB had completely stopped their funding of them and they were so broke the bus ran out of fuel on the way to a comp as they had to money to pay for petrol. Ben Ryan actually paid for a lot of stuff out of his own pocket.

And how many times have we seen understrength pacific Island teams play at Twickenham, players staying home because they can't afford to miss work, can't afford to travel, can't leave their clubs etc A few years ago a paper mentioned in an article that in an Eng v Fiji match, the England players got $40'000 and the Fijian players $1000.... And that has been the case for many, many years.

Edit
Just googled and the Fijian Frua players get paid $10'000 for their 3 months of Super rugby. And pretty sure that's Fijian dollars....
 
[...] my 2nd choice is Ireland [...] 3rd choice: [...] Argentina [...]
Why should England win? They have been playing terribly recently and Argentina are a very good side.
You put that "very" away right now.
I will look back on this soon enough. Kindly remember your immunity from my prosecution ends on Friday. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger against those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is Cruz when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

I've got like 4-5 more weeks of being able to act all superior and I'm cashing in hard.

How about an Ireland vs Argentina Final.
Wouldn't that be a glorious way to re-litigate 2015 🙌
 
Having just predicted every single fixture, I've ended up with a SA-NZ final, so will have to go with that.

Wales lose to Arg, France lose to RSA, AUS lose to Eng and Ire lose to NZ in the quaters

Arg lose to the saffas and England lose to NZ in the semis.

Kiwis win the thing because the saffas have an awful group and will be in pieces by the final
 
How about an Ireland vs Argentina Final.
Wouldn't that be a glorious way to re-litigate 2015 🙌
Never say never. For the avoidance of causing panic and doubt. One is a team with experience of making semi-finals, the other ones Ireland.
 
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Talking of RWC predictions, surely one of the biggest inevitabilities is Sexton getting concussed or hobbling off injured in one of the group games? Given his age I'll be well impressed with his durability if he's still fit after facing Tonga, SA and Scotland.
 
Talking of RWC predictions, surely one of the biggest inevitabilities is Sexton getting concussed or hobbling off injured in one of the group games? Given his age I'll be well impressed with his durability if he's still fit after facing Tonga, SA and Scotland.
He'll play 60 against Romania, and start off the bench against Tonga when the headshed reckons he'll be safe from any savage tackle. I fear for him against the SAFFAs, but they've been targeting fly-halves for as long as I can remember.
 
Talking of RWC predictions, surely one of the biggest inevitabilities is Sexton getting concussed or hobbling off injured in one of the group games? Given his age I'll be well impressed with his durability if he's still fit after facing Tonga, SA and Scotland.
Romania tune up
- 2 weeks
Win over SA
- 2 weeks
Routine Scottish win, off at 60 mins
- 1 week
Win over NZ who are too arrogant to try to kill the man
- 2 weeks (rest v England as Ross Byrne is proven to be more than enough)
Win over France / SA
- 8 seconds
Declare as GOAT
 
Romania tune up
- 2 weeks
Win over SA
- 2 weeks
Routine Scottish win, off at 60 mins
- 1 week
Win over NZ who are two arrogant to try to kill the man
- 2 weeks (rest v England as Ross Byrne is proven to be more than enough)
Win over France / SA
- 8 seconds
Declare as GOAT
Problem is once you get past 35. Age accelerates by next week he could be getting up three times a night for a **** and forgetting why he walked in a room. Known as Getting Old Accelerated Time.
 
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Just a couple of points, because I do agree with the overall thrust, and am not interested in defending WR any more than I feel I have to...

England played the Netherlands in order to qualify for the 1999 tournament - it was frankly dangerous, even with England being particularly good at voluntarily holding back. So you probably already have seen such a thing in rugby.

WR doesn't run the 6N (or the 3N) they're are private events, WR can't force them to invite anyone they don't want to, but did work hard behind the scenes to get Italy and Argentina in. I'm not aware of WR earning a single penny out of the 6N or 3N, in which case, those decisions are commercially neutral for WR. IT's reminiscent of blaming the RFU for PRL being a bunch of dicks.

It was Italy into the 6N, not Romania, because Italy was good, and was the 6th best team in Europe by a very long way in the second half of the 90s.
As for RWC hosts - yep, again, we live in a world where money is important, Japan, and USA are huge risks for WR.


Again, the 3N (and SR) was a private entity, WR had no authority to impose team on them. They did spend over a decade lobbying on behalf of Argentina to join the 3N though - which is hardly "WR were more than happy for Argentina to be excluded"
I'm going to need to see some evidence that WR were happy for Argentina to leave SR, rather than just a claim. "Happy" being significantly different to "Had no say in" - of course, nobody is obliged to hunt for evidence.


Yep, fully agreed, and I think I'm on record here as being pissed off about it.

So if WR and 6N are such distinct entities, with no common goals, it kind lf makes you wonder why WR are handing over the mid year and EOYT windows to 6N & SANZAAR. Doesn't it? Its almost as if the same vested interests are replicated within WR and the 6N!

And yes, Italy were srongest in the late 90s. Romania were stronger before then and Georgia were stronger since then. I have yet to hear a whisper from WR about the need to include Georgia in an annual competitive tournament involving Tier1s.

You are arguing WR have zero influence over 6N and 3N but then saying we should all be grateful for WR's contribution to the expansion of the 6N and 3N. You can't have it both ways unless you think WR has someohow changed since expansion to include Italy and Argentina.

Do you credit WR for the inclusion of Italian sides in Pro rugby? I would argue inclusion of Italy in 6N and Pro rugby was based solely on considerations there were commercial opportunities for the other NH Tier1 unions without jeopardising their overall control of the rugby landscape. It had zilch to do with pressure frim World Rugby.
 
So if WR and 6N are such distinct entities, with no common goals, it kind lf makes you wonder why WR are handing over the mid year and EOYT windows to 6N & SANZAAR. Doesn't it? Its almost as if the same vested interests are replicated within WR and the 6N!
Your words, not mine.
And yes, Italy were srongest in the late 90s. Romania were stronger before then and Georgia were stronger since then. I have yet to hear a whisper from WR about the need to include Georgia in an annual competitive tournament involving Tier1s.
I don't recall all that much talk about expanding the 5 nations before the mid-late 90s, from anyone TBH, but that could be my age, as I turned 20 in the mid 90s, so you'd probably need someone older than me to remember the rugby politicking of the time. As for more recently, and IIRC WR support the principal of promotion and relegation between 6N and ERC; but can't impose it.
You are arguing WR have zero influence over 6N and 3N but then saying we should all be grateful for WR's contribution to the expansion of the 6N and 3N. You can't have it both ways unless you think WR has someohow changed since expansion to include Italy and Argentina.
Your words, not mine. Thus it's very easy to have it both ways.
You are aware that people can wield influence, and can lobby without having the final say yes?
Do you credit WR for the inclusion of Italian sides in Pro rugby? I would argue inclusion of Italy in 6N and Pro rugby was based solely on considerations there were commercial opportunities for the other NH Tier1 unions without jeopardising their overall control of the rugby landscape. It had zilch to do with pressure frim World Rugby.
A little, to the best of my knowledge (not great) they lobbied for it, and I credit them with that. I don't have any idea whatsoever whether they helped Italy with their application or not, is fo, then I'd credit them with that as well (though the bribe required was ridiculous, and if they had anything to do with negotiating that, then I'd castigate them for that bit).
As you say, the final decision would have had far more to do with commercial decisions for IRFU, WRU and SRU.
For me, there's quite a large gap between "WR exerted no pressure" and "WR imposed this against the will of the establishment" - which illustrate my entire point - nuance exists.


Either way, I feel I've made my points - and been misrespresented in them. The RWC is around the corner, and I'm done with this conversation. I've already broken my 2/3 post rule when disagreeing with someone online, by repeating post #3
(#1= State a perspective, #2= expand if necessary, #3= clarify if there's still confusion).
I'm not sure it's confusion as to my point anymore though, so much as disagreeing, and building straw-men of misrepresentation.
 
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Problem is once you get past 35. Age accelerates by next week he could be getting up three times a night for a **** and forgetting why he walked in a room. Known as Getting Old Accelerated Time.
Johnny Sexton gets up three times a night to **** [his high school sweetheart with whom he is raising a lovely family with] and nothing else.
 
Nothing has changed in my predictions in the draw thread. Ireland springboks final, unless the French control the big screen at games in which case france wins.

If the French don't control the big screen at games then I'd pick ..... still thinking... how likely is it that ireland will get a prop injury?... no, I think there springboks will win anyway due to their reserve front row. Plus Marx and vermeulen at the breakdown will help counter irelands momentum.

But I have literal money on ireland.
 
I wish there was a bet "all blacks not to win", because that would be a good bet. all blacks being favourites by the bookies just goes to show how dumb the betting public is
 
FWIW.
Would love to see France v Ireland in final both teams play rugby I like to watch.(along with Scotland)
Saffers will he saffers so wouldn't be surprised to see them win it with just raw power.
NZ flattering to deceive for me at present, but still in with a 4th favorite shout.
Fiji and Scotland are best of the rest for me ,sorry thr Jocks tough ,tough group to get out of.
Can't see anyone else being anything other than cannon fodder for top 4 although of course 1 surprising semi finalist guaranteed due to world rugby farcical seeding procedure.
Hoping for a great tournament without to much controversy.
 

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